http://www.bainmortgage.com/MortgageMarketWeekInReview

Newsletter-November 28th, 2011
Provided by
Dana Bain

Dana Bain
Premiere Mortgage Services

www.BainMortgage.com

11 Malvern Hill Road
Sterling, MA 01564
Phone: (978) 422-2311
Fax: (978) 422-2313
E-Mail: dana@bainmortgage.com

  
 

Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices ended slightly lower last week, which pushed mortgage interest rates higher.Weak stocks and continued Euro debt concerns helped rates improve early in the week.The data generally helped rates as well.Q3 GDP disappointed with 2% increase compared to the expected 2.5% mark.The Treasury auctions had strong demand and also helped the overall bond market.The shortened and thin trading conditions fortunately did not result in any extreme whipsaw trading that is often common.Mortgage bonds ended the week worse by approximately 1/8 of a discount point.

Look for the employment report to gain the most attention this week.

 

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic
Indicator

Release
Date & Time

Consensus
Estimate


Analysis
New Home Sales Monday, Nov. 28,
10:00 am, et		 295k Important.An indication of economic strength and credit demand.Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Consumer Confidence

Tuesday, Nov. 29,
10:00 am, et

 39 Important.An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend.Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
ADP Employment

Wednesday, Nov. 30,
8:30 am, et

 105k Important.An indication of employment.Weakness may bring lower rates.
Revised Q3 Productivity

Wednesday, Nov. 30,
8:30 am, et

 Up 2.9% Important.A measure of output per hour.Improvement may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Fed “Beige Book”

Wednesday, Nov. 30,
2:00 pm, et

 None Important.This Fed report details current economic conditions across the US.Signs of weakness may lead to lower rates.
Weekly Jobless Claims

Thursday, Dec. 1,
8:30 am, et

 385k Important.An indication of employment.Higher claims may result in lower rates.
ISM Index Thursday, Dec. 1,
10:00 am, et		 50.7 Important.A measure of manufacturer sentiment.Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Construction Spending Thursday, Dec. 1,
10:00 am, et		 Up 0.2% Low importance.An indication of economic strength.Significant weakness may lead to lower rates.
Employment

Friday, Dec. 2,
8:30 am, et

9%,
Payrolls +101k

 Very important.An increase in unemployment or weakness in payrolls may bring lower rates.

Why Data is Important

One of the easiest and most important things to do when making a decision whether to float or lock a loan is knowing what data is going to be released.Economic releases are important because they provide a snapshot of a portion of the economy.Data is even more important in that it is often the cause of market volatility.Upcoming data events are readily available and there is no excuse not knowing what data will be released in the week ahead.

While an in depth understanding of an economic event can help a person make informed decisions, it is more important to have a rudimentary understanding of when an important piece of data will be released and what basic effect that data can have on the market.Understanding the nuances of a release does very little for a person if they are blindsided by not knowing when the release will occur.Accurately predicting how each and every release will come in is impossible.

Floating into important economic data can be very risky and can expose a person to huge market swings.Keep that in mind this week, as there is an abundance of significant data heading our way.



 
 
 
 
MORTGAGE MARKET IN REVIEW Newsletter-November 28th, 2011
 

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