The national association of realtors has acknowledged that they have actually overstated home sales. They have also stated they are in the process of revising their methodology in coming up with their figures and will restate their “estimates” in the “near” future. To give you an idea of how their restatement may look here is an estimate of sales then two graphs on show the numbers below and one showing new single family sales to give a visual and actual bench mark for comparisons
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Here is what the adjustment to the NAR sales would look like using the HousingTracker data (this is NOT the NAR adjustment): |
Sales, as Reported |
YoY Change, as Reported |
Adjustment |
Sales, Adjusted |
YoY Change, Adjusted |
|
2007 |
5,652,000 |
-12.7% |
-2.8% |
5,495,000 |
-15.2% |
|
2008 |
4,913,000 |
-13.1% |
-4.5% |
4,691,000 |
-14.6% |
|
2009 |
5,156,000 |
4.9% |
-10.0% |
4,642,000 |
-1.0% |
|
2010 |
4,908,000 |
-4.8% |
-13.4% |
4,250,000 |
-8.4% |
|
20112 |
4,950,000 |
0.9% |
-15.1% |
4,201,000 |
-1.2% |
|
1An example of adjustment, this is NOT the NAR adjustment, 2estimate for 2011 |
Here is new single family sales as a bench mark comparison for you to decide what you think is the most likely scenario of home sales of the two sets of figure in the graph above
Thought to ponder which home sales market did you participate in?
neither is stellar yet one definitely shows a more stressful market
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