How Long Does It Take To Sell A Home In Tallahassee?

Often times, I see reports referring to the average market time that it takes to sell a home in Tallahassee. Unfortunately, these reports are based on data that is not accurate.

They are a compilation of MLS sales data, where the market time is measured by taking the date the property was sold and subtracting the date the property was listed in the MLS. While this is an accurate way to measure the market time for that specific listing in the MLS, it fails to measure other critical components:

  • Many properties are listed and fail to sell
  • Many properties are listed for a period, pulled off of the market, and then re-listed (the only market time measured is the final listing period).
  • Many properties are placed into the MLS after a Realtor sells an unlisted property (results in zero market time, though the home might have been previously listed or listed For Sale By Owner)

What these points really tell us is that we know "average market time" for a home in Tallahassee (or anywhere else for that matter) is longer than what is being reported. So, if we know the information is not correct, does it have any value to us? The answer is YES!

I like to look at the average market time statistics by price range in order to see which way it is trending. While I know the actual numbers are wrong, they are most likely "wrongly consistent" over time. So if the statistics tell me that average market time is dropping, I suspect this to be true. Conversely, if the statistics tell me that average market time is rising, then I also suspect this to be true.

Here is a graph measuring the average market time to sell a home in Tallahassee. While I know the days measured are not correct, I do believe that the trend is correct. Our graph tells us that the average market time for three of the four price ranges is generally the same as it was in 1999, but generally trending up since 2005.

Two interesting points from this graph are one, that homes priced near our median price point ($200K) seem to be selling a little faster this year than last year, and two, high end homes are still selling faster then they were in 1999.

 

Joe Manausa is the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached by clicking on the comments button below, via e-mail through his company website at www.manausa.com, or by calling (850) 386-2001.

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12 Comments on The "Market Time" Misconception

NOV
09
2007
273,955 Points 3 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog
Good analysis, Joe - while you're right about the figures being skewed, they still are consistent in pointing out trends.
7:55am • #1
214,451 Points 8 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Thanks Brian. I've always wanted to write about this. Everyone loves to quote market times....
8:34am • #2

Joe, excellent points. You'd think the NAR would bring this to our attention more when they say something like there's a 9-month supply of homes. Yes, a home over-priced by twice and on the market for 600 days will skew things (and I've seen this). When I do market time, I check the homes that are priced within a certain range and SOLD. A home priced right has a market time of X days.

Have a great weekend.

Happy sailing ... _/)

Paul

8:35am • #3
214,451 Points 8 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Thanks Paul. I agree with. The reality is market time is almost purely dependent on pricing. Would be nice to do a market time report based upon the time it took to sell from the last price adjustment.
8:41am • #4

Joe,

According to the latest census, in Tallahassee, we have 159,000 people  with 78,336 housing units in 2006 from 150,000 people with 68,417 housing units in 2006.  Population jumped increased 6% comparing to housing units jumped 14.5%.  http://www.census.gov/   Vacancy rate jumped from 7.6% to over 10%

We have about 4,000 Homes for sales currently, yet these 4000 homes which are small portion of overall 78,336 homes determines the home prices for Tallahassee.  Back in the boom time when we only have 1500 home inventory, I can see how easy it is to drive up home prices in the short term. Especially with lax lending standard, and proliferation of subprime lending

With population stagnate in Tallahassee and inventory piling up, nobody knows how low the price have to go, but the price will have to be at low enough so that inventory starts to move again. 

Down, maybe down a lot, That's where I see home prices will be in Tallahassee

 

 

Sam
8:53pm • #5

Joe,

According to the latest census, in Tallahassee, we have 159,000 people  with 78,336 housing units in 2006 from 150,000 people with 68,417 housing units in 2006.  Population jumped increased 6% comparing to housing units jumped 14.5%.  http://www.census.gov/   Vacancy rate jumped from 7.6% to over 10%

We have about 4,000 Homes for sales currently, yet these 4000 homes which are small portion of overall 78,336 homes determines the home prices for Tallahassee.  Back in the boom time when we only have 1500 home inventory, I can see how easy it is to drive up home prices in the short term. Especially with lax lending standard, and proliferation of subprime lending

With population stagnate in Tallahassee and inventory piling up, nobody knows how low the price have to go, but the price will have to be at low enough so that inventory starts to move again. 

Down, maybe down a lot, That's where I see home prices will be in Tallahassee

 

 

Sam
8:53pm • #6

FICO score below 660, considered to be subprime

Sam
8:57pm • #7
213,826 Points Outside Blog
Joe, what an interesting observation. It makes perfect sense. Some of the properties I've listed have expired 2 and sometimes even 3 times (agents that let seller set the sales price based on what they feel or owe and not based on comparable sales). My local area DOM's (days on market) says 66 days but I'm convinced it's closer to 140. Thanks for sharing and keep doing what you do.
9:26pm • #8
226,716 Points 30 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog
This is very useful information, Joe.  DOM stats drive me nuts for a variety of reasons.  My biggest pet peeves are that reports by the media fail to account for the unsold listings (which would drastically affect the true average time on market), and the accumulation of days from contract to close.  We can either "pend" our listings once a contract is accepted, or list it as "Active with Contingency."  The former takes it off the market and ceases DOM, while the latter continues to accumulate DOM as sellers shop for backup offers.  There are just too many quirks for a general DOM stat to be disseminated as gospel to an unknowing public.  Kudos to you for actually bothering to break down the context.
10:45pm • #9
NOV
10
2007
214,451 Points 8 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Thanks Vincent. Maybe one day the MLS systems will account for all the extra days.
7:46am • #10
214,451 Points 8 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Thanks Paul. I used listed to close for the graph, but it still doesn't account for the exceptions listed.
7:47am • #11
214,451 Points 8 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Sam,

You have to look at our whole market area. The census has us at 350k for Leon County, which is the Tallahassee Real Estate Market.

7:48am • #12

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Joe Manausa - Tallahassee Real Estate

Tallahassee, FL

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Century 21 First Realty

Address: 1140 Capital Circle SE, Suite #12, Tallahassee, FL, 32301

Office Phone: (850) 386-2001 x 142

Cell Phone: (850) 508-1544

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