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The Window is Open!!!

By Lowell Caro Jr.

Real Estate Agent with Keller Williams

November 09, 2007 04:15 PM

Here are your Las Vegas numbers for this week. There seem to be a little disagreement on the way I calculate our months of inventory versus they way others do. But, regardless of how you calculate it, the window is open! IT'S TIME TO BUY, BUY, BUY, IN VEGAS AGAIN!!! Prices are almost back to "pre-boom" numbers! I received an email from a new home sales associate that I know. They are selling a 1612sf home for $185,000.00!!! It almost sounds crazy, but I think the buying window will be open for the nex 12-16 months. After that, there will still be good deals, but buyers will be behind the power curve again. Just my speculation.

Lowell Caro, Jr. Your Real Estate Market Advisor

Weekly MLS Market Snapshot

As of COB: Friday, November 9, 2007 @ 9:00 p.m.

Category	Number	Totals	Vacant	Percentages
SFR Inventory	21,978		10,140	46.14%
Condo Townhome Inventory	5,666		3,152	55.63%
Total		27,644	13,292	48.08%
Total Contingents and Pending	2,276		1,655	72.72%
Total		29,920	14,947	49.96%
Short Sales (EA/ER)	3,998		1,668	41.72%
Repos (estimated EA/ER)	1,969		1,889	N/A
Total Distressed		5,967		21.59%
Total Sold in last 30 Days	1,208		809	66.97%
Sold short sales	70		(46)	5.79%
Sold REOs	188			15.56%
Months of inventory at current rate of consumption (29,920 / 1208)				24.7682119

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Mike and Dawn Lewis

The Lewis Team at Keller Williams - San Diego, CA

The Lewis Team at Keller Williams in San Diego CA

Lowell,

Great post. Good analysis on your market and I like your predictions on what you think is going on in your market. Dive into those numbers and see where things are going. If you can pull out the good stuff and get the buyers to buy at the right time they will be your clients for life. You're taking out the guesswork and doing your homework. Good job!

Mike Lewis

Nov 09, 2007 05:12 PM

Lowell Caro Jr.

Keller Williams - Las Vegas, NV

REO Broker and Market Advisor

Thanks Mike. I like getting into the numbers and trying to figure out what is to come. I love the stuff on your blog. I need to figure out how to leverage my time, so I can spend more time blogging and more time resaerching and preparing for my blog! I need another assistant!

Nov 09, 2007 05:34 PM

John Novak

Keller Williams Realty The Marketplace - Las Vegas, NV

Henderson, Las Vegas and Summerlin Real Estate

I like that you include measures for distressed and vacant properties in your report. How are these numbers trending over the past 3-6 months?

Nov 09, 2007 05:38 PM

Well to tell you the truth, I've only been watching the distressed properties for the past couple of months. They seem to have been relatively stable, hovering just over 20% of our total inventory and of the solds. The percentage of distressed solds is always a little higher. As far as the vacancy rate. I've checked it from time to time for the past six months and more regularly lately. It has gone from the low 40% range into the higher 40% range. I have the feeling that is going to push our distressed property numbers up. What do you think?

Nov 09, 2007 05:56 PM

Seeing a rising vacancy rate among current short sales may be an indication that sellers are simply walking away and letting the home go to foreclosure. Another item to keep an eye on is declining prices in new construction. That will put downward pressure on resales and push more homes into short sale status. The sad part there is that it's through no fault of the seller, it's just a market dynamic.

Nov 09, 2007 06:10 PM

Yes, I believe the new home builders are a huge factor in the declining prices in the valley. It like downward spiral. New home builders cut prices to compete with the increased inventory of REO properties...the normal seller has to reduce their price until they get into a short sale situation...they can't sell or they just walk and the property goes back to the bank...the REO inventory increases, so builders cut prices again to compete...

Question is, where's the bottom?

Nov 09, 2007 06:18 PM

Gary Woltal

Keller Williams Realty - Flower Mound, TX

Assoc. Broker Realtor SFR Dallas Ft. Worth

Lowell, I agree that your area has turned into a strong buyers market and it will take some time to work off the inventory and get back to a more balanced (6 months of inventory) market. Prices still could be slowly appreciating with inventory still increasing so the bottom of more inventory going on the market may not have occurred yet. You have to look at this month (November's numbers) and then December to see if finally inventory levels have peaked. Until inventory peaks the turnaround hasn't started yet.

I like that you add condos, short sales, and REOs into the mix as well. It's a more complete picture. Are the new home sales in SFR or do you need to add them in if they were tracked by the MLS?

Nov 10, 2007 01:43 AM

Hey Gary - Sorry I didn't respond to your question sooner, I went to a great conference this week/weekend. So, to respond to your question, the new homes sales that were in the MLS are included in that number. That seems to be an increasing thing as well (although slowly). I see more agents in new home sales offices that are paying their dues and more agents that are soliciting builders to list their homes. It's a smart move. In any case, I think only a small percentage of new home sales are represented in the MLS, but I haven't tracked that number.

We'll see how the numbers shape up through the end of the year! Oh by the way, congratulations are in order. Did you hear that Nevada is #1 again in foreclosures? We've had the highest increase in foreclosure over the previous quarter! Buyers, come on down!

Nov 15, 2007 03:26 PM

The Window is Open!!!

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