Missoula's neighborhood trends, Mullan Road and Expressway

The western side of town that encompasses the dreaded "North Reserve" commercial area is the part of town that has been experiencing the most growth that I've seen over the last decade.  This area features many large-scale higher density neighborhoods with homes on lot sizes that range from 3,000 to 7,000 square feet.  As Mullan Road heads further west the area opens up into many larger home neighborhoods with houses on 1 or more acres as well.

In 2010 there were 174 residential properties sold in this area, largely driven by the 1st time home buyers tax credit, and the median sales price was $192,000.  The average time on market was a little longer at 142, but that's largely due to a lot of new construction being sold which will expand days on market of a listing.  The median listing price was $194,500 so houses were selling for 99% of their original listing price.  There were 11 foreclosure sales in this area for 2010.

Moving forward a year in 2011 there were 146 residential sales with a median sales price of $199,950.  The average market time for the homes that sold shrunk by just a few days at 136.  The median listing price was $204,500 showing that homes were selling for 98% of their original listing price.   Also there were 11 foreclosure sales in this area for 2011.

The volume understandably came back down a bit, as I suspected, being that the market was not "stimulated" with a tax credit incentive.  Interestingly enough this was the first neighborhood in Missoula that actually showed an increase in the median sales price though!  The amount of foreclosures stayed at the same number (11) but if you look at the % of the market it went from 6% of the market in 2010 to 8% in 2011.   Looking ahead I really do think that values will continue to hover around $200,000 as a whole out here, but some over-built areas that have seen pre-sales disappear might see foreclosures hurt homes that have been built to sell as "spec" houses.  Another interesting thing to keep an eye on is the slowing down of affordable new construction, up until last year there was wide availability to new homes priced as low as $140,000 that would have 2 or 3 bedrooms in subdivisions like Canyon Creek, Windsor Park, and Pleasant Views.  Now Canyon and Pleasant Views are just about finished and Windsor looks to be nearing a final phase as well.  When these opportunities are gone where will new buyers go for affordable new construction?

Absorption rates look like there's about 9.7 months worth of inventory currently listed, which is an over-supply.  This should climb through the spring but level off and drop through the summer I would suspect.