We always say real estate is local. 

So how do the top 5 real estate stories in 2011 look at the local level? I took a look in Oakland CA, specifically at detached single family residences (SFR) and compared them to 5 Top Real Estate Stories in 2011as blogged by Steve Harney)

  1. Interest rates remained at historic lows
  2. Sales are up over 2010
  3. Contract cancellation rate surges
  4. Foreclosures were delayed
  5. Prices move up, then down

Interest Rates remained at historic lows

Mortgage-X has some of the best graphs to to show the historical trends.


I checked rates for Oakland CA and found this.The highest rate is for a 30-year mortgage at 5.00% with .625 discount point. The lowest rate is for a 15-year mortgage 3.00% with .625 discount point.


Sales up over 2010

In Oakland CA, I reported on year end sales comparing 2011 to 2010 and found this to be true. Total sales in 2011 increased to 29,296, up from 28,874 in 2010.  

 

In 2011, distressed sales (short sales and foreclosures) also increased to 54% of total sales versus 52% in 2010.


Contract cancellation rate surges

From my personal experience alone, delays in receiving short sale approvals resulted in buyers backing out. Buyers who are "gaming" the system by writing several offers and waiting to see what sticks are not writing in good faith.


To ensure that short sale buyers are serious, my short sale sellers and I insist that the short sale buyers agree to open escrow upon acceptance of offer. 

 

Foreclosures were delayed

Although there were more bank-owned properties that sold in 2011 over 2011, they remained at 31% of total for both years, whereas closed short sales move up a notch.

2011 Type Sale

Number of Sales

As percent of total

Regular sales

13,399

46%

Short Sales

6,882

23%

Bank-owned

9,042

31%

Total sales

29,296

  

 

2010 Type Sale

Number of Sales

As percent of total

Regular sales

13,834

48%

Short Sales

6,223

21%

Bank-owned

8.839

31%

Total sales

28,874

  



Harney points out that “The robo-signing debacle of late 2010 caused a delay in many foreclosures entering the market. It DID NOT prevent the banks from continuing to put homes into the foreclosure process. The delays just prevented banks from repossessing the homes and putting them up for sale as REOs (foreclosures owned by the banks).’


Prices move up then down

Oakland seemed to buck that trend. Early 2011, prices seemed to move down, then moved up towards the end of the year.


RELATED POSTS

Oakland CA 2011: Short Sales and Bank-Owned Properties are 54% of total sales

Short sales and Foreclosures in Alameda CA Year End Report 2011 compared to 2010

CASE STUDY: SHORT SALE SELLER BACKS OUT OF PURCHASE AFTER RECEIVING TRIAL LOAN MODIFICATION

 
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5 Comments on Oakland CA top 5 real estate stories in 2011 including surge in sales and prices

JAN
07
2012
229,869 Points 9 Featured Posts Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

Very interesting statistics for your area.  It's still going to take some time before we get back to a normal market in California. 
2:18am • #1
774,307 Points 95 Featured Posts Outside Blog Called Shot Master

I love the stats Pacita. I sure looks like now is the time to get into the market. Thanks for the info.
5:08am • #2
616,886 Points 60 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

Doug --- observers say it may be 2023 before we get back to the values of 2003.

Tom --- thus far, buyers are eager and are taking action. My buyers are, anyway.

 
10:35pm • #3
JAN
08
2012
201,876 Points 2 Featured Posts Called Shot Master

Wonderful analysis Pacita.  I can't imagine taking another 12 years to get back to 2003 prices here, although the economy is the ultimate determination. 
11:27pm • #4
JAN
09
2012
616,886 Points 60 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

Marge

Thanks for your kind comments. I hope it won't take us that long to recover either. But when I look at my own place, and how much I paid for it and what it's worth now...if we take the 2-4% appreciation, it may indeed take that long to get back to where we were in 2003-2007
1:04am • #5

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Pacita Rainmaker_large

Pacita Dimacali - ePRO, SRES, CDPE, MBA Alain Pinel in Alameda County CA

Oakland, CA

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Alain Pinel

Address: 6211 La Salle Ave, Oakland, CA, 94611

Cell Phone: (510) 205-2992

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