The Marin IJ just published their monthly real estate article, and not surprisingly, the stats show sales down, but prices stable.

The source is different than mine. I use MLS statistics, the IJ refers to DataQuick, but the stories are similar, I believe. In my summary two weeks ago, I said the market was firming up, and this story is reaffirming that.

The article notes sales volume is off 18%, but that is much better than the 30% declines we were seeing earlier this year. Additionally,average sales price is  basically unchanged.

There is also an interview about pricing with a local realtor, Candi Samuels. I share her philosophy about pricing, which is price it right, and then don’t be afraid to wait. My client is doing it with this property in Novato right now.

Time will tell if I’m right or not. But I think it’s like a big game of poker out there right now, only it’s that point in the game where it’s getting late, a couple of players are out, and the stakes are getting bigger. Buyers are looking for signs of weakness. In the housing market, there are so many price reductions that buyers now routinely expect one three weeks after the house goes on market, so no one wants to move too quickly.

Who is bluffing, and who really has the cards?

Or, as was stated so eloquently in Rounders, the terrific film about poker:

“Listen, if you can’t spot the sucker at the table in your first half hour at the table then you ARE the sucker.”

I’ll let you know who the sucker is on this one soon.