The Gig Harbor real estate market is just fine- when I say Gig Harbor I'm including the Key Peninsula (it's even better- more on that another time).

Brush aside the dire headlines to look at last month's MLS market statistics. These are the actual numbers for September 2007, a true picture of what has really happened in Gig Harbor and the Key Peninsula. Why study prices in the rear view mirror when we're really interested in where they are headed? Because predicting a market is, to put it rudely- a fool's game. Looking at recent price behavior can however suggest certain probabilities; that gray area of maybe that's about as close to a prediction as one might reasonably hope for. Probabilities are what stock traders, doctors, bankers, bookies, salesman, (fill in the blank) consider when making decisions.

Probability #1- Gig Harbor prices may not drop.

An interesting number for September is the median price of pending sales ($379,500). Guess just how much less that number's fallen since last September? Answer: Zero. Our prices remain absolutely firm while the majority of the country's price continue to slide. That's called relative strength and it's a strong indicator of things to come. Simply put; Broad market prices drop- Our's drop less. Broad market housing prices rise- Our's rise faster and higher.

Probability #2- Now may be the bottom of the Gig Harbor sales decline.

Look at September year over year closed sales- down about 29%. While that's down from the most active market in history, it's still a whole bunch of down! But now take a look at pending September sales- down 17% from last year... What's with the 12% difference? That's called deviation and it's another basic indicator of things to come, very popular in fact, for calling market bottoms. And so begs the question: Are falling sales accelerating or is the decline in pending transactions slowing up? Hoping to avoid a glass half empty/half full debate, I'll fetch my crystal ball and remove all doubt-

FAQ:

Q- With the new bridge completed I can cross the Narrows any time of day, holiday weekend- whenever- at the speed limit. Yet local real estate prices seem unresponsive to the passing of this long-awaited Gig Harbor milestone. Is it reasonable to expect a sling-shot effect of new arrivals with an accompanying price jump in the near future, say after the holidays?

A- Yes.



Q- Uptown Gig Harbor construction is in full swing and almost leased out- already. Gig Harbor North continues meteoric development with a new Costco, YMCA, several new strip malls and residential construction exploding. Less than 5 minutes away is one of the most scenic harbors in Puget Sound. About 100 years ago another unique west coast community with many striking similarities developed into Newport Beach, CA. Is it possible our real estate market could be headed that direction; Precious little available combined with jaw-dropping price appreciation?

A- Yep.



Q- The new St Anthony's 217,000 sq ft multi-bed hospital is scheduled to open early 2009. This state-of-the-art facility would be a major contribution to any community in the country. Would you expect this event to have a significant impact on Gig Harbor/ Key Peninsula real estate prices?

A- Duh?