Has oil peaked and what does it mean for rates

 In my previous article's I posted about rising oil prices and how speculation was one of the primary motivators for rising costs.  Now their are articles coming out this morning that confirm this article.  Oil Prices Drop

I'm sure it's more complicated then pure speculation, however the old supply and demand rules still apply. And one thing most media hounds don't account for is that when you put too much pressure on prices, then other options open up and then demand is reduced. Which means prices drop!!!

Now will the good news on oil dropping really affect rates at this point.  Probably won't have much of an affect at present.  The problem is that higher cost's are now permeating the market in terms of higher food costs, distribution costs, and manufacturing costs.  Unfortunately these cost's will be felt in the bond market because of fears of interest rates rising.  

The only way to reverse the current trend is if Oil prices continue to drop, and if recent credit woes improve in the banking industry.  The nightmare scenario is if their is some type of major disruption in oil supply, pushing prices past $100 a barrel, then interest rates spike because of inflation.  This would only exacerbate the current mortgage and housing crisis to unknown proportions.   I'm banking on oil continuing a gradual down word trend, which will hopefully cool off inflationary panic.

 

 

3 Comments on Has oil peaked and what does it mean for rates

It was only a couple of weeks ago that Brazil reported that they'd discovered an off shore oil field that rivaled that of Saudi Arabia's, why hasn't that brought oil prices down?  Millions more people are conserving more electricity lately, why hasn't that brought oil prices down?  Millions more people are driving hybrids, or other alternative fuel vehicles lately, why hasn't that brought oil prices down?  If the news reports are correct, it's because the Chinese and Indian economies are growing so quickly, that they're using more oil.  Unlike the Germans, another huge importer to the U.S., who are doing more than most to lower their use of the black muck.  That should send a loud message to the U.S. consumers, those who have a conscience, stop buying Chinese, and Indian made products.  Let's start demanding to know more about the companies that make our products.  Work conditions, and emission output!  This is the information age people, but you have to put your money where your mouth is.  P.S. Boycott Texas made products too, how else will we get Bush back for raping our country?

11/24/2007 01:45 AM by Gregg Wynn, Southern California (ABSOLUTE APPRAISALS)


This market will spur another oil glut.  It happened in the 70's, auto makers began selling cars that could go 30 to 40 miles per gallon.  We're going to see hybrid sales go through the roof in the next five years. Plus you'll see oil shale and other alternative products develop due to the higher costs, this will allow those ventures to become actually profitable.

It's possible that China and India will drive the cost of oil, but I've read that the current $99.00 a barrel situation is mostly from speculation.  Oil should really be around 65-70 a barrel. 

11/26/2007 11:13 AM by Karl Christen Utah Mortgages~Mortgage Planning Expert (Envision Lending Group)


So - are rates following oil?  We can do 5.75 at par - that's pretty cheap!

11/26/2007 11:16 AM by Eleanor Thorne, Cary Mortgage Loans (Meridian Residential)


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Loan Officer: Karl Christen Utah Mortgages~Mortgage Planning Expert (Envision Lending Group)
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