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Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics

Big word, any clue what it means?

Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics RSQE, is part of the University of Michigan and has been predicting economic forecasts since 1952. They provide economic forecasts in the United States, 7 times a year.

They currently finished their annual conference in Ann Arbor, being held at the Rackham Amphitheater. Saul Hymans is the Director of RSQE and is a widely known economist and emeritus Professor at U.M. in economics and statistics.

Despite a slumping housing market, rising oil prices, flat auto sales, and a week dollar, lack of consumer confidence, the United States will not slip into a recession, according to the new forecast from the University of Michigan economists.

If you would like to read more details click here.

The chart below shows the accuracy of the Michigan Forecasters from 1972 through 2006. Pretty impressive.

Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics Chart

 

 

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This post has been included in Michigan Real Estate News

32 Comments on University of Michigan RSQE Predicts No Recession in U.S.

NOV
18
2007
This is welcom news...I sure hope they are right!
8:03pm • #1
1,481,141 Points 275 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master
Missy, these guys have a pretty impressive track record!  I'll bet they're right this time, too!
8:05pm • #2
Missy - I think 2008 is going to be an awesome year for REALTORS and the mortgage industry. People just need to stop listening to all the nay-sayers. This is an awesome graph!
8:06pm • #3
237,795 Points 6 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Missy, That is the kind of news we like to hear! Their past performance is impressive. So let's hope thaey repeat this time!

Ginger

8:10pm • #4

UM forecast says economy poised to heat up  Thanks for the info...

8:14pm • #5
649,189 Points 29 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master
Missy, now if the major media would make that a big story it would be GREAT.  Problem won't happen though; I don't think they like reporting good news.
8:15pm • #6
543,447 Points 39 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Missy,

I'm not an economist, but I think this is good news...let's keep our fingers crossed!!! 

 Thanks,   Fran

8:18pm • #7
880,252 Points 210 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Called Shot Master
Optimism....that's where it's at! The chart is great and by the looks of all the data and info...well, I really hope this means that it'll turn around soon.
8:36pm • #8
136,585 Points 14 Featured Posts Outside Blog
This is news I like to hear. I have heard rumblings otherwise so I am hoping they are correct.
8:37pm • #9
891,616 Points 20 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master
Missy - Their track record looks good and I do love positive news however based on certain indicators I am not so sure they are going to be right this time, but I would love to be proven wrong.
11:01pm • #10
294,021 Points 11 Featured Posts Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp

Missy,

great information and nice to come to your blogs, keep them good, hope to read them often.

Ray Saenz

 

11:32pm • #11
NOV
19
2007
1,256,117 Points 242 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master
Missy- This is great news. Now, what media has picked this up to run with it? None you say? Well, gee I wonder why! Well, not down here anyway, they just like the bad stuff. Katerina
12:57am • #12
321,106 Points 52 Featured Posts Outside Blog
The brain trust at U of M has normally been right on the mark.  The graph you showed reinforces that.  This is certainly good news!
3:59am • #13
1,546,105 Points 417 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

Hate to be the contrarian.  But, if they are 2.5% off as in 1997-2001, we could be in a lot of trouble. 

Of course, they could always do what the government does, adjust.

 

5:39am • #14
167,951 Points 12 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Missy, I was never a fan of Michigan but now I think I might change my views..:-)
6:05am • #15
483,249 Points 53 Featured Posts Outside Blog Called Shot Master
Missy--I bet this report (which leaves out gloom and doom) is not going to be a headline on the evening news. Thanks for sharing the info!
7:28am • #16
304,169 Points 15 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog
Hi Missy,
I choose to believe these experts.  I agree with many comments here that what we need is the media to report these opinions instead of the "doom and gloom".  Thanks.
7:38am • #17
873,978 Points 35 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog
Missy, I am curious myself to see how the shopping goes this time of year as that has an impact. If they have a good track record then I, too, am hoping they are right. I hear all the analyzing on the news and they are making such dire predictions---now I turn it off!
8:33am • #18
147,753 Points 13 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Missy - How refreshing to hear some positive financial news for a change. Thanks for spreading the word.
8:57am • #19
4 Featured Posts

Missy,

I like Optimism! I need some more right now :0)

Tom Weiss

9:44am • #20
1,194,245 Points 89 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Called Shot Master
Missy... you and this entry are on my RT Blog today.  I was in MI this weekend.  Talking to a Ford employee whose plant is being shut down this week.... I said we are going into a recesssion...  Good thing I don't have a clue what I AM talking about.  Thanks for the good news. 
10:25am • #21
198,363 Points 12 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp
I always say that U of M is the bomb!!!  I sure hope and pray that they are right.
6:42pm • #22
219,012 Points 56 Featured Posts Outside Blog
We need more positive news like this - I never knew another U of M could give my UM a run for its money (University of Miami).
7:00pm • #23
365,435 Points 4 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Postive Post Missy -great news for a change! By the way how did you get those snap shot things to come up when the cursor scrolls over the links:)

Sincerely,

Grace Safrin

7:39pm • #24
848,842 Points 153 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

Maureen, that is cool.

Rick and Ines, LOL

Grace, go to snap.com and follow the instructions.

7:48pm • #25
628,354 Points 313 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master
Missy - this is great news for us all! Thanks for sharing, I love your Blog!!  Sorry I haven't been by as much lately, I'm trying to get out more! LOL!  Happy Holidays to you and your family, have a Blessed and Safe Thanksgiving!
9:03pm • #26
NOV
20
2007
361,854 Points 18 Featured Posts Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp
Missy - let's hope this is so - we could use some good news - we can always count on you for a lift! Happy Thanksgiving! 
12:10am • #27
284,607 Points 37 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog
Missy, in Inman News yesterday they had an expert say there was a 45% chance of a recession.  It's so hard to know who to believe...there are so many experts as in any profession!
7:47am • #28
848,842 Points 153 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master
Diane, I saw that, that is one reason I put their historical data in so I'm believing them.
7:59am • #29
1,038,316 Points 26 Featured Posts Outside Blog Called Shot Master
Missy, This is great news. I have seen signs of a good spring market in my area. I will share your
9:00am • #30
1 Featured Post
Missy, from the looks of the chart, this is good news. I really believe that the negativity spewed by the media fuels more negativity. Why haven't I heard about this on the "news"?
1:49pm • #31
192,058 Points 2 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Called Shot Master

Missy, this is Great News! Their track record looks impressive too. I hope their accuracy continues as in the past. Thanks for sharing!

I have to agree with the others, when is the media going to pick up on stuff like this?

7:12pm • #32

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