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University of Michigan RSQE Predicts No Recession in U.S.

Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics

Big word, any clue what it means?

Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics RSQE, is part of the University of Michigan and has been predicting economic forecasts since 1952. They provide economic forecasts in the United States, 7 times a year.

They currently finished their annual conference in Ann Arbor, being held at the Rackham Amphitheater. Saul Hymans is the Director of RSQE and is a widely known economist and emeritus Professor at U.M. in economics and statistics.

Despite a slumping housing market, rising oil prices, flat auto sales, and a week dollar, lack of consumer confidence, the United States will not slip into a recession, according to the new forecast from the University of Michigan economists.

If you would like to read more details click here.

The chart below shows the accuracy of the Michigan Forecasters from 1972 through 2006. Pretty impressive.

Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics Chart

Posted by Missy Caulk Ann Arbor Real Estate on 11/18/2007 07:44 PM

Comments (32)

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32 Comments on University of Michigan RSQE Predicts No Recession in U.S.

This is welcom news...I sure hope they are right!

11/18/2007 08:03 PM

by Kelly Sibilsky - Lake Zurich, IL RE/MAX Real Estate Agent (RE/MAX Unlimited Northwest)

Missy, these guys have a pretty impressive track record! I'll bet they're right this time, too!

11/18/2007 08:05 PM

by Patricia Kennedy (Evers & Company)

Missy - I think 2008 is going to be an awesome year for REALTORS and the mortgage industry. People just need to stop listening to all the nay-sayers. This is an awesome graph!

11/18/2007 08:06 PM

by Linda Scanlan (The Real Estate Referral Company)

Missy, That is the kind of news we like to hear! Their past performance is impressive. So let's hope thaey repeat this time!

Ginger

11/18/2007 08:10 PM

by Wilmington NC Real Estate Ginger & Roger Sala Keller Williams (Keller Williams Wilmington North Carolina)

UM forecast says economy poised to heat up Thanks for the info...

11/18/2007 08:14 PM

by Jan Wood, Realtor (R) - Nashville TN Real Estate (RE/MAX ELITE)

Missy, now if the major media would make that a big story it would be GREAT. Problem won't happen though; I don't think they like reporting good news.

11/18/2007 08:15 PM

by Marchel Peterson Spring TX Real Estate E-Pro ABR (Results Realty)

Missy,

I'm not an economist, but I think this is good news...let's keep our fingers crossed!!!

Thanks, Fran

11/18/2007 08:18 PM

by Fran 'The Title Man' Gaspari Title Insurance-PA & NJ (Patriot Land Transfer, Inc.)

Optimism....that's where it's at! The chart is great and by the looks of all the data and info...well, I really hope this means that it'll turn around soon.

11/18/2007 08:36 PM

by Celeste "SALLY" Cheeseman (RA), Hawaii Real Estate & Hawaii Relocation (Century 21 Liberty Homes -Mililani, Hawaii)

This is news I like to hear. I have heard rumblings otherwise so I am hoping they are correct.

11/18/2007 08:37 PM

by Jay McGillicuddy~Real Estate Broker (Prudential Verani Realty)

Missy - Their track record looks good and I do love positive news however based on certain indicators I am not so sure they are going to be right this time, but I would love to be proven wrong.

11/18/2007 11:01 PM

by Jennifer Fivelsdal,ABR,GRI,SRES (Keller Williams Realty)

Missy,

great information and nice to come to your blogs, keep them good, hope to read them often.

Ray Saenz

11/18/2007 11:32 PM

by Aurora Colorado Real Estate Ray Saenz, Colorado Realtor (United Property Brokers, INC)

Missy- This is great news. Now, what media has picked this up to run with it? None you say? Well, gee I wonder why! Well, not down here anyway, they just like the bad stuff. Katerina

11/19/2007 12:57 AM

by Nestor & Katerina Gasset, Realtors® Wellington Florida Luxury Homes (International Properties and Investments, Inc.)

The brain trust at U of M has normally been right on the mark. The graph you showed reinforces that. This is certainly good news!

11/19/2007 03:59 AM

by Kris Wales- Metro Detroit real estate agent-Chesterfield Twp-Macomb County MI (RE/MAX Advantage 1, Inc.)

Hate to be the contrarian. But, if they are 2.5% off as in 1997-2001, we could be in a lot of trouble.

Of course, they could always do what the government does, adjust.

11/19/2007 05:39 AM

by Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Real Estate

Missy, I was never a fan of Michigan but now I think I might change my views..:-)

11/19/2007 06:05 AM

by My Favorite Mortgage.net - Matthew J Blum

Missy--I bet this report (which leaves out gloom and doom) is not going to be a headline on the evening news. Thanks for sharing the info!

11/19/2007 07:28 AM

by Teri Eckholm, Realtor® Anoka County MN (Keller Williams Premier Realty)

Hi Missy,
I choose to believe these experts. I agree with many comments here that what we need is the media to report these opinions instead of the "doom and gloom". Thanks.

11/19/2007 07:38 AM

by Cynthia Tilghman, Realtor® Onslow County NC Home Specialist (Kingsbridge Realty, Inc)

Missy, I am curious myself to see how the shopping goes this time of year as that has an impact. If they have a good track record then I, too, am hoping they are right. I hear all the analyzing on the news and they are making such dire predictions---now I turn it off!

11/19/2007 08:33 AM

by Carole Provenzale Owner, Feng Shui Long Island (Feng Shui Long Island)

Missy - How refreshing to hear some positive financial news for a change. Thanks for spreading the word.

11/19/2007 08:57 AM

by Tom Plant - Murrieta Real Estate Expert - Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage (Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage)

Missy,

I like Optimism! I need some more right now :0)

Tom Weiss

11/19/2007 09:44 AM

by Thomas Weiss (Thomas R. Weiss)

Missy... you and this entry are on my RT Blog today. I was in MI this weekend. Talking to a Ford employee whose plant is being shut down this week.... I said we are going into a recesssion... Good thing I don't have a clue what I AM talking about. Thanks for the good news.

11/19/2007 10:25 AM

by Maureen McCabe - Central Ohio real estate (Real Living HER)

I always say that U of M is the bomb!!! I sure hope and pray that they are right.

11/19/2007 06:42 PM

by Chris Tesch College Station, Texas Real Estate (RE/MAX Bryan College Station)

We need more positive news like this - I never knew another U of M could give my UM a run for its money (University of Miami).

11/19/2007 07:00 PM

by Rick & Ines - Miami Shores Real Estate (Coldwell Banker)

Postive Post Missy -great news for a change! By the way how did you get those snap shot things to come up when the cursor scrolls over the links:)

Sincerely,

Grace Safrin

11/19/2007 07:39 PM

by Jeff & Grace Safrin-SpousesSellingHouses REALTORS, F.C.Tucker Company, Indiana (F.C.Tucker/Advantage Realty)

Maureen, that is cool.

Rick and Ines, LOL

Grace, go to snap.com and follow the instructions.

11/19/2007 07:48 PM

by Missy Caulk Ann Arbor Real Estate (Keller Williams Ann Arbor, Michigan)

Missy - this is great news for us all! Thanks for sharing, I love your Blog!! Sorry I haven't been by as much lately, I'm trying to get out more! LOL! Happy Holidays to you and your family, have a Blessed and Safe Thanksgiving!

11/19/2007 09:03 PM

by Brad Andersohn ~ ActiveRain Community Builder (ActiveRain Corp)

Missy - let's hope this is so - we could use some good news - we can always count on you for a lift! Happy Thanksgiving!

11/20/2007 12:10 AM

by Clearwater Real Estate - Tampa Bay FL Homes & Condos for Sale- Cyndee Haydon (Belloise Realty)

Missy, in Inman News yesterday they had an expert say there was a 45% chance of a recession. It's so hard to know who to believe...there are so many experts as in any profession!

11/20/2007 07:47 AM

by Lake Norman Real Estate ~ Diane Aurit (RE/MAX at the Lake)

Diane, I saw that, that is one reason I put their historical data in so I'm believing them.

11/20/2007 07:59 AM

by Missy Caulk Ann Arbor Real Estate (Keller Williams Ann Arbor, Michigan)

Missy, This is great news. I have seen signs of a good spring market in my area. I will share your

11/20/2007 09:00 AM

by GITA BANTWAL, REALTOR BUCKS COUNTY, PA HOMES (ReMax Centre Realtors)

Missy, from the looks of the chart, this is good news. I really believe that the negativity spewed by the media fuels more negativity. Why haven't I heard about this on the "news"?

11/20/2007 01:49 PM

by Lee Morof, Associate Broker/Attorney (RE/MAX Showcase Homes)

Missy, this is Great News! Their track record looks impressive too. I hope their accuracy continues as in the past. Thanks for sharing!

I have to agree with the others, when is the media going to pick up on stuff like this?

11/20/2007 07:12 PM

by Mike Mitchell - REALTOR® - St. Clair Shores, MI (GMAC Real Estate The Kee Group)