We have seen the Las Vegas, NV high rise real estate market have a phenomenal (and scary) jump in inventory in the last several months.  For several reasons:

  • Too many speculators in that market.  They want to close n flip.  They are not interested in holding, renting or living in them.  Each time a building closes, we see an increase of inventory.
  • Mortgage market madness has reduced the amount of loan products available to jumbo, second, vacation or investor type property owners. The ones who have very little money down and marginal credit, that is.  So the buyer pool for both resales and new went kaput.  Loud and hard too.

Here are the high rise stats:

Rentals:

  • 343 Listed 11/20/2007
  • 15 Under Contract 11/20/2007
  • 29 Leased 10/18-11/18/2007
  • 8.7 Months Inventory
  • Monthly Rates:  Low:  $695; Median:  $2800; High:  $11000

Resales:

  • 844 Listed 11/20/2007
  • 74 Under Contract 11/20/2007
  • 14 Closed 10/18-11/18/2007
  • 60.2 Months Inventory

Resale inventory is down from 72 months inventory one month ago. Sales have not risen dramatically, only two more units than last month.  Inventory has just reduced slightly.  The rental inventory of 8.7 months is staggering when you compare it to the entire market of rentals that hovers around 3 months of inventory.

I think it is apparent that many purchases are completely speculative = not enough demand for living in.  Some rent prices just barely cover the owner's HOA.

Since July speculators have been bailing from their new construction high rise escrows because of lack of mortgage products for funding.  They are also leaving their steep deposits at the builder and not looking back. 

Unless demand for high rise LIVING increases over speculation, we will be seeing a major correction in this part of our market.  We  have a little over 14000 units under construction with another 50000+ more on the drawing board.  Every time a building closes, we see 20-50% of that building go on the market.

The beautiful part about this is that when you put the pen to the paper for land and development costs, it costs about $1800/square foot.  You can buy right now with the median price being in the mid 500's for a square foot.  Will deflated dollar against foreign currency be able to bail us out?  Is Las Vegas unique enough to attract those foreign investors?

View Last High Rise Update (October 2007) 

 

20 Comments on Las Vegas High Rise Inventory Update: Five Years of Inventory! November 2007

Renee,

Beautiful report and beautiful place! It's a beautiful thing. Google juice baby!

11/20/2007 07:21 PM by Neal Bloom-Realtor ® Assoc.-CRS-Weston FL (RE/MAX Premier Associates)


Gee, Renee, I thought we were the only place with 5 years of inventory (condos in Pinellas County from $900,000 to $1,500,000) and that doesn't take into account that only 25% of the sales were resale condos - the rest were new.

11/20/2007 07:35 PM by Sharon Simms St Pete Florida CRS CIPS CLHMS (RE/MAX Metro)


Neal:  chug a lug :)

Sharon:  Nope, you aren't the only place!  I am hoping that this unique market can recover quickly.  Appears many are fishing for a renter or buyer ~ whatever comes first. 

11/20/2007 08:06 PM by Renee Burrows - Las Vegas NV Real Estate (Nevada Realty Solutions)


My goodness, 5 years Inventory...this is making Grand Rapids Michigan look postively prosperous.  Wow, that's a huge number and Sharon seems to indicate that she is experiencing the same in her market.  I appreciate how positive you are Renee.  Someone is selling homes even in this market & ...it might as well be you!

11/20/2007 08:32 PM by Lola Audu~ Audu Real Estate~ Grand Rapids, MI Broker


Lola:  Thank you for stopping by!  Yes there are smaller markets within our own that are doing very well and some that obviously make Grand Rapids look like a dream!

11/20/2007 10:38 PM by Renee Burrows - Las Vegas NV Real Estate (Nevada Realty Solutions)


Excellent post Renee! 5-years??? Geez. Foreign markets are the most likely new source of funds. America is going broke.

11/21/2007 12:31 AM by Michael Tarabotto (Certified Appraiser) Santa Clarita, San Fernando, Westside (California Appraisal Solutions Corp.)


Renee', do you think that the resale inventory may have gone down from a month ago because of the holidays?  I know here in Kitsap County, a lot of resale owners are waiting to list or relist until after the holidays.  Or do you have some other insight into that oddity?

11/21/2007 01:02 AM by Marlene Scheffer, Realtor to Kitsap County, WA (Realty Station)


Renee,

5 years inventory?! That is alot to get rid of. These are nice looking buildings too. Once these inventory are sold and gone, the market would eventually pick up again. Because LV is a great tourist destination, the market may not down for long...possibly..

Have a great Thanksgiving! Gobble google!

Dave

11/21/2007 01:44 AM by Dave D, Southern California Real Estate ~San Gabriel Valley (LA) & Orange County (Century 21 Excellence)


I've actually been putting off doing a couple of absorption rates posts until after the holiday.  What a downer in some areas.    

11/21/2007 05:01 AM by Chris Elizabeth Griffith ~ Bonita Springs Fl Real Estate (Keller Williams Elite Realty, Bonita Springs, FL)


I love how the press is moving this "years of inventory" and "absorption rate" using average buyers and average market conditions

  • as we're not in average markets
  • and growth in some areas is well above/below average
  • and the average buyer isn't looking for just an average unit

then why are all the numbers analyzed given as averages?

probably because economists are less likely to get involved and break down micro and macro markets...

for instance - there may be a small inventory of workforce housing that will only last 5 months... and a huge inventory of condo hotels that will last 15 years!

it is all how the individual micro markets break down that tells the real story

the average realtor isn't selling EVERY property type in every burrough, county, city or state!

they're niched... so how is your niche doing?

11/21/2007 10:43 AM by Boca Raton Florida & Boynton Beach Florida Mortgage Loans


Renee, kudos! As always you've picked out that gnat in the ointment - this time it is "They want to close n flip." I shout it every day - "this is a buy and hold market - you can still flip but it is far less likely that you'll not go negative when so doing". We've already started hearing the squeaks that the underserved are the ones most being hurt  buy the mortgage implosion - as you indicated "So the buyer pool for both resales and new went kaput." Mark these words: within just a few months we'll hear how the lenders are punishing the lower income and credit challenged families with poor hungry babies who are underpaid and overworked. Right back to where we were before the non-conforming mortgage industry heated up (ya'll call those non-conforming loans sub-prime).

11/21/2007 11:03 AM by Novation Mortgage


Renee:  Outstanding!  This post will be referenced quite a bit.  Now what is the best way to market Foreign Investors? 

11/21/2007 11:39 AM by Rey Gallegos Home Loan Consultant Las Vegas, NV (A Mortgage Bank)


Michael:  That is the only way to win in this particular micro market.

Marlene:  Inventory is sliding slightly due to many reasons.  I don't think high rise inventory is being taken off the market for the holidays.  Most is vacant.  I would say many are going to the rental pool as I am betting most did not anticipate a long term hold.

Dave:  It sure is a lot of inventory!  Take care and have a fabulous turkey day!

Chris:  I have another downer coming out and then an upper!

David:  Mine is doing very well.  I have been working rentals and selling new construction.

Ken:  Your words are marked and you know I am in close to 100% agreement with you!

Michael:  thanks for stopping by!!!

Rey:  Thanks for the compliment!  I would say the best way to market to foreign investors is to go the syndication route.  Got another investment post on Reuters yesterday! 

11/21/2007 01:42 PM by Renee Burrows - Las Vegas NV Real Estate (Nevada Realty Solutions)


Check you out, Renee! This place is just full of celebrities. Our very own Bill Nazur was MSNBC last month. Don't forget us little people!

11/21/2007 08:07 PM by Michael Tarabotto (Certified Appraiser) Santa Clarita, San Fernando, Westside (California Appraisal Solutions Corp.)


Michael:  No way, I am too humble to go there!  Congrats to Bill Nazur!

11/21/2007 09:40 PM by Renee Burrows - Las Vegas NV Real Estate (Nevada Realty Solutions)


I wonder how the opening if Trump , ALlure, and Turnberry Towers West will affect these stats.  If only the Sellers understood the demographics!

02/08/2008 10:32 AM by June Stark-Las Vegas Condos High Rise Expert (Elite Realty-Luxury Properties On & Off the Strip)


June:  the more that open.........  I am honored that the Las Vegas High Rise Condo Predator will comment on my blog, thanks for stopping by! 

02/23/2008 10:02 AM by Renee Burrows - Las Vegas NV Real Estate (Nevada Realty Solutions)


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Real Estate Agent: Renee Burrows - Las Vegas NV  Real Estate (Nevada Realty Solutions)
Renee Burrows - Las Vegas NV Real Estate
Las Vegas, NV
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Page copy protected against web site content infringement by CopyscapeSpecializing in those forgotten "at" Rhodes Ranch Communities in Southwest Las Vegas that offer peek-a-boo views of the mountains and city lights! I love to watch trends and statistics in this fascinating market! I do have a newsletter that you can subscribe to - so if you want to keep in tune with the Las Vegas Real Estate Market Conditions on a monthly basis, sign up with absolutely no obligation!
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