This a republished article from Free Press by Ralph Marcus Maupin Jr. and Art Daniels

November 17, 2007

BY KATHERINE YUNG

FREE PRESS BUSINESS WRITER

The start of Michigan 's long-awaited economic recovery is at least a year away, economists at the University of Michigan predicted Friday during their annual economic outlook conference.

Despite seven years of declining employment, the state will shed 51,000 jobs next year as Detroit's automakers continue to restructure, said Joan Crary, an assistant economics research scientist at the university.

"This decade is proving to be a real endurance test for the Michigan economy," she said. "It now appears 2008 will be another rough year."

But she and her colleagues predict the state will begin to add some jobs after the first quarter of 2009.

Michigan is now in its longest stretch of declining employment since statistics were first kept in 1939. It has lost nearly 400,000 jobs since mid-2000, with 70% of them in manufacturing.

On the bright side, the education and health services fields continue to add large numbers of workers. But the hiring in those industries isn't enough to offset losses in manufacturing.

Art Daniels

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