Scott Daniels wrote a post called Perseverance is the name of the Game!What 2007 meant to me!
That got me thinking about a conversation I was part of last night after dinner was over. A few people I know that are big developers down here in South Florida think that 2007 was bad... but 2008 will be "bloody".
There are signs that certain market sectors will definitely be more off than this past year. Notably:
- South Florida Condos
- South Florida New Construction
- South Florida Condo-Hotels
- South Florida Foreign Investment
The reason that these sectors seem to be in for another rough or increasingly rougher year is that so much negativity pervades the press and economy while pointing the finger at Miami.
Yes... there is a huge inventory of new condos and some developers are just getting beaten up over them.
What really got me thinking about how the transition from 2008 to 2009 will see a bottom and then a good chance for recovery is:
- Anytime there is a Lame Duck president, the market stagnates. New Blood will be ushered in Jan 2009 in the form of a new President, new Cabinet and new financial and foreign policy. This will help our economy tremendously as Wall Street Analysts are fearing the end of our bull market.
- The Euro, Sterling and Loon continue to hold at their all time highs against the dollar. Sure, some of the lower end foreign investors won't be able to find easy financing for all their real estate investments... but there still are plenty of investors that want to buy for cash or only leverage a small portion of a development.
- Commercial real estate is holding strong... this shows potential for job growth in the new year.
- Central and North Florida - outside the main cities - are showing great potential. With lower inventories and fewer areas where there is mass development, these areas are more and more attractive as people that work on the sprawling outside areas of major areas like Orlando, Tampa, Gainesville, St Petersburg, Sarasota, Tallahassee and Jacksonville are wanting to live in smaller, less congested areas and are willing to accept a longer commute.
- Lower residential prices devalues residential land. This means that smaller developers are able to come in and get their development land at the right price... which means that affordability should return for the working class!
With all these things in mind, we should consider how we can help ourselves over this next year so we can persevere once more.
While we're all great at what we do as Agents, Brokers, Mortgage Brokers, etc... it is important to focus on the now so we can survive... and plan for next year and the year after so we can thrive when the market comes back.
In the meantime, I suggest we bloggers focus on focusing on the good market factors. Posting and reposting bad news and "Top-10 worst markets" just proliferates the negativity... focus on the positive...
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David A. Podgursky, MBA
TheMortgageGoToGuy.com
Your Source for Residential, Commercial, Investment and Relocation Mortgages in Florida
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