All over Active Rain right now members are discussing mortgage abuses, impending avalanches of mortgage foreclosures, predatory lending practices, excessive pressure on appraisers to 'make transactions work'! See Lenn Harley's Blog and Ed Rybczynski's Blog!

Many of the lenders who participated in these abuses are no longer operating. The vast menu of mortgage products has already been whittled down to the programs of the eighties. Property values are declining in most places, housing sales are stagnant, in the greatest 'buyer's market' in many years there are virtually no buyers, consumer confidence is almost non existent, the dollar is falling fast worldwide, the stock market is mirroring all this bad news, and if you can think of any other negative news feel free to add them in your comments.

All slippery slopes end in a valley!!!

We need to go back and see where we went wrong. Let's examine some factors. In the Carter administration, inflation had spiraled almost out of control...even with excessive government regulation and control.

During the Reagan administration, free markets, competition, and retracted government spending were stressed and resulted in inflation being brought under control. Welfare programs among others were virtually eliminated. Interest rates on home mortgages began to decline from their 17% & 18% and higher levels. As these interest rates declined, property values were rising, and competition spurred the growth of new and 'creative' financing in the real estate market.

 Peaks don't last long...slippery slopes can follow them!

One of the old segments to suffer was the 'private mortgage insurance' sector. Loans with LTV's above 80% were typically put through a 'dual' underwriting and/or approval process...just to digress a minute...I remember loans at say 90% LTV's being approved by the lender only to have the 'PMI' company reject them...the 'loan' would then be 'shopped' to another PMI company...or another...until one PMI company would approve the loan.

I'm going out on a limb and sighting this practice as the 'beginning' or genesis of 'the slippery slope' from which we are now suffering. Think about it...Stressing 'free markets' and 'competition' to control inflation we got carried away ...we threw out the baby with the wash water. It is now the late 80's and we all know what happened with RESPA and the real estate industry. They opened the 'floodgates' and allowed previously illegal controlled business affiliations CBA's, now ABA's, to flourish and proliferate under the 'guise' of reducing closing costs...get real...we all know that there were no closing costs reduced as these 'bundled services' and 'one stop shops' were permitted free reign to grow and operate as they pleased...with hardly any consequences...we all saw and were witnesses to these excessive abuses...created for one purpose...to generate income, cash flow...and what did many if not most say...Well, everyone's doing it, we might as well jump on the 'bandwagon'...and so many did.

To digress even further, In 1970 I sold real estate, and after 52 transactions in a year and a half, during which my highest sale price was $37,500 dollars, I received 25% of a 6% commission from that sale. Today that same home will sell for around $350,000 dollars and if I worked for a 100% commission operation...you do the math!

 In the nineties Baskin Robbins not only sold in excess of thirty flavors of ice cream but became the 'model' for mortgage lenders as programs proliferated at an unprecedented rate. PMI was all but eliminated...in fact any previously existing entity which could have had a deleterious effect on the approval and final closing of a real estate transaction was quietly and judiciously eliminated...instead of 'increased competition' causing free market benefits, competition was eliminated or 'absorbed' into the new model of 'greedy real estate entrepreneurs'. Transactions were steamrolled quickly and expeditiously through the process as many winked in 'back rooms' at their financial successes...in some cases their illgotten gains...we are now reaping what we have sown!!!

We went from the seventies where it was advisable to 'buy the home you could least afford' to this new millenium where the mantra became, 'buy the house of your dreams at all costs...you'll be able to afford it in the future'. There is a lot more to this evolution than going from 'vanilla' mortgages to 'many flavored ones', but space and time do not allow it in this post!

Let the debate and discussions begin...but please, I plead with you...let's not try to attribute 'blame'...let's rather seek solutions!!!

                                                          

 

 

18 Comments on The Baskin Robbins Slippery Slope Flavor Of The Month!

NOV
23
2007
837,677 Points 213 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router

Good history lesson Fran. 

I'm afraid too many are forgetting the mess of the financial markets spawned by 9/11.  The Greenspan dance with interest rates that started the latest rush to buy the big houses was, IMO, intrest rate driven.

Infortunately, as home prices rose, incomes did NOT.

9:19pm • #1
380,314 Points 1 Featured Post Outside Blog

Hey Fran, A very interesting analogy comparing the mortgage business for the past 30 years to Baskin Robins. It is like many thing in life, it all runs full circle and comes back to haunt us. I will be curious to see the other comments.

Great Post

Sean Allen

9:24pm • #2
424,426 Points 36 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Lenn: This debate is bringing about some good points for reflection...let's keep it going!

Sean: I'm an ice cream lover...what can I say! :)

Bob & Carolin: Thanks for dropping by!

Thanks,   Fran

9:35pm • #4
601,381 Points 111 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog
Onward we go....and I for one am anticipating the day when it all turns around again :)
10:48pm • #5
424,426 Points 36 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Sally,

Me too...it is beginning to turn...it just needs some impetus!!! Thanks,   Fran

11:58pm • #6
NOV
24
2007
256,294 Points 44 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Fran, I wonder how many books are going to be written in the next few years regarding this history in our economy?  All of you here that have been writing about this and educating us should get together and collaborate.  You're not only a wealth of wisdom but a voice of sanity. 
6:00am • #7
424,426 Points 36 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Kris,

You are a part of 'all of you here'...all and each of us contribute to fleshing out the mosaic of 'truth' that is being woven on Active Rain...we are all learning and in some respects we are all teachers! Thanks,   Fran

6:15am • #8
159,695 Points Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Fran,

I hope you had a great Thanksgiving.

I am from the belief that there is nothing wrong with choice.  That competition is good.  And that you should have all that you want.  My waist line thanks you Baskin's.

Than being said, when the explosion happened in the real estate and then the mortgage industry, the LENDERS wanted to have it all.  They all wanted to have more than their piece of the pie, therefore they decided to "allow" huge gaps in the approval process.  The Lenders chose to allow a borrower they knew perfectly well did not qualify for a $500k home have it because of a low start program.  They were looking for the next deal and not worried about the borrower at all.

A mortgage Broker very close to me spent more time talking people out of these programs (based on the fact she knew that the Lenders would approve them even though it was not in their best interest) because the the borrower wanted the "DREAM".  You know those who chose not to heed her warnings are the first to call when they cannot pay their mortgages anymore.  They all wanted what was being promoted as a way to buy more with less.  It actually came to the point that this Broker had the borrower sign an affidavit at closing that they were educated in the product and that it was the borrowers choice to proceed.  More than just the basic loan product is not for 60-70% of the normal home-buyer/refinancer in my humble opinion.

There was also the late 2005'ers who came in at the height of the market and still wanted to flip out in a year that were now caught with no place to go.  I have attempted to sell a few of these homes featuring the unrealistic Seller.

The bottom line is EDUCATION....Lenders/Brokers/Agents/Borrowers.....help make the best choice for a strong sale that is in the long term best interest of your Client and not your pocketbook/wallet.

8:49am • #9
424,426 Points 36 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Dan,

My philosophy has always been, if it's good for the consumer, it's good for me...after all, we are all consumers...take care of the consumer, and the consumer will take care of you!!! Thanks,   Fran

9:18am • #10
1 Featured Post

I agree with Fran. If it is truly good for the consumer, then everyone wins....WIN...WIN is the way to go. When Ibought my first house in the 80's, interest rates were 18%. I assumed a VA loan at 14% and got a seller second at 9.25%. Now that was creative financing. I could afford tha house at a little over $500 per month AH...The Good Old Days.

Great Post....That said coming from a lender, I do think that we have created a three headed monster!

9:31am • #11
6 Featured Posts

Very informative Fran! 

All I can say at this point is this too shall pass.  People are going to get tired or renting, houses prices will become reasonable again, the maket will work itself out.  It's just a matter of time.

  

9:41am • #12
221,620 Points 1 Featured Post
Fran - another great post about changes in the mortgage industry - thanks!
9:57am • #13
424,426 Points 36 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Keith: It is a win win situation when the consumer is 'king'!

Ann: Yes, and the demand that gets 'pent up' is all potential!!!

Barbara-Jo & Bill: Hopefully, changes for the better!

Thanks,   Fran 

 

10:22am • #14
486,346 Points 1 Featured Post Outside Blog Hit Router

Hi Fran,

I hope you had a great Thanksgiving, and greetings from Wisconsin.

What a great post, and as my son Spencer would agree on, and say, any analogy with ice cream is good.

I believe that the ground work is already happening, and signs of a better market are emerging.

PMI on less than 20% down, but now on higher, the cycle of anyone hanging a sign out there at any price, and getting it is far over. Boy, that drove me nuts.

All those programs to get someone in a home gone for the right reasons.

It was pretty sad when the rates were really good, but the investors were scared to death.

We say this in the early eighties, again in 1991 and 1992, but for different reasons.

Ronald Reagan said this was going to happen. There were a number of people that said this would happen.

I am just happy for EVERYONE in this industry that we can look forward to change.

The beauty of bottoming out is that it can only get better. We hope.

Thanks again, and I look forward toyour next post.

Sincerely,

Tom Braatz 

10:25am • #15
424,426 Points 36 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Tom,

What an excellent 'common sense' analysis of the situation...and Spencer and I have much in common!!! :) Thanks,   Fran

10:35am • #16
101,146 Points Outside Blog
A good analogy. Maybe the momentum down the slope will carry the market up the next hill??
8:34pm • #17
424,426 Points 36 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Armando,

Good way to look at it...here's hoping!!! Thanks,   Fran

10:49pm • #18

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Fran 'The Title Man' Gaspari Title Insurance-PA & NJ

Limerick, PA

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