Ar_home_b_search
 
There's a story that I've wanted to tell for some time.   I've avoided it only because family members are involved.  The recent commentary thread to Lenn's post California Subprime Borrowers May Get Relief? - More Questions Than Answers  convinced me that it was time to share and delve even deeper into the mess that's now referred to as a national credit crunch.  While a credit crunch most certainly exists, it's a mere symptom of a complex series of broad and interacting issues.  It's not the problem.  Unlike a coin that has only two sides, our industry faces a problem with a root cause that seemingly spreads in an infinite number of directions.

My sister, Liz, and her husband, Rob, have two adult daughters and lived, until two years ago, in a sprawling tangle of communities known as Bel Air, Md.  The city located just north of Baltimore is properly described as a prosperous place comprised mostly of commuters.  Liz and Rob were homesteaders of sorts when they built a new home 25 years ago when Bel Air's cow population far exceeded its count of taxpaying denizens.  Like other families, they wanted a pool, a huge deck, a finished basement.  Then, there were the traditional cash outlays for college tuitions, weddings, vacations, etc. that confront us all.

In no time, the homes in Liz's community were selling for $125,000 (her and her husband paid $90,000 for theirs) and then $180,000, and then $250,000 ... etc. etc. etc.  You know the story!  By the summer of 2005, identical homes were readily fetching $500,000 or more.   Like I said, there were bills to pay and my sister refinanced any number of times and took out equity loans.  While not mortgaged to the hilt, a fair share of the equity in the home was encumbered.

Back to the summer of 2005.  Rob received the promotion he had dreamed of during the tenure of his career.  All of a sudden there were more cars than could fit in the garage and a need for a house that would lend itself to cocktail parties and entertaining.  As fate would have it, there was a new community nearby with one particular colonial, all brick, of course, selling for $950,000.  You know where I'm going so why bother mincing words.  My sister and her husband sold their comfortable residence to acquire the true measure of American success that is the million dollar home. Saving accounts were tapped and stocks sold to come up with a suitable down payment.  After all was said and done, a $700,000 mortgage was originated.

Maryland, in my humble opinion, first felt the effects of the housing downturn in October of 2005.
  That's the time that my abstracting business lost traction overnight.  My sister has no fear of losing her home to foreclosure.  That's not even a concern.  She's still content where she is, but my sister is nearly 60 years old.  There's talk of retirement and a smaller home someplace warm before too long.  The problem is the price that her house would sell for in today's market.  Like everyone else, Liz and Rob assumed that their investment in real estate would be safe.  They assumed their house would appreciate or not-depreciate - at the very least.  My sister didn't game the system or cheat in any way.   She wouldn't know how.  I know she'd have to take money to closing if she decided to sell today and could somehow find a buyer. 

The questions abound and are perfectly valid
:
  • How much is the house really worth? 
  • How could a house lose so much value so quickly? 
  • What happened to the sizable down payment that seeming disappeared overnight?  
  • How long will it take for the market to turn around? 
  • Why hasn't the assessed value of the property been adjusted to lower property taxes?  (my personal favorite)

A perfectly lovely house in the suburbs has become a nightmare of horrific proportion that will determine, to some degree, the financial future of a couple that worked a lifetime and made the right decisions

What happened? 


It's easy for consumers to blame real estate agents and loan originators when real estate markets become patently dysfunctional.  As an industry, we find it convenient to blame borrowers for their guile, and Wall Street for its chicanery.  I don't blame the real estate agent that sold the albatross to my sister, nor do I blame the builder nor the loan originator. They did nothing wrong.  The issues we're confronting run exceedingly deep; the system we embrace so dear has collided with destiny.  Like the credit crunch that's blamed for every woe, the unethical, often criminal, behavior demonstrated by some industry insiders is systemic of a still deeper problem.

 Regrettably, we shun the inevitable conclusion that the crises in real estate markets is far from over.  As a primary causation factor, we need to consider the paradigm of politics that is the federal reserve.  In his book The Age of Turbulence, Alan Greenspan audaciously exculpates himself from any responsibility for the pending debacle in domestic housing markets and related financial appendages.  He conveniently places blame on global factors while ignoring the devastating economic effects caused by restrained market forces.  Yes, Greenspan is guilty of holding interest rates much lower than they should have been for nearly a decade.  It was a political ploy by an appointee to a post that is ostensibly non-political.  Markets should determine interest rates, not a politico that caters to the aspirations of the oval office and a thirst for public approval.

The artificially created perception of prosperity had become a reality for a nation that believes that bigger is better and every debt can be settled tomorrow.  We felt so good for so long that we ignored the reality that all drunken stupors must end.  We are now paying the price and suffering the consequences of a reckless monetary policy born of the glitz of the mid 1990's.  The laws of physics dictate that every force is accompanied by an equal opposing force.  Why would we assume a quick, painless correction for a problem that took a decade to create? The feds aren't going to allow untold numbers of homes to go to foreclosure.  Consider the implications as a matter of public policy. Where would the countless families displaced by foreclosure live?  As a society, will we tolerate the appearance of boarded-up properties in polite middle class communities?  The stakes are high on this one.  The world is watching.  Foreign investors are already questioning the integrity of mortgage backed securities.

The problem was caused by the feds and its solution will require federal intervention.  Yes, you can expect governmental intrusion in your business affairs before long.   Regardless of the powerful lobbies that exist, public officials will side with consumers at the expense of an industry with fees and commissions that are chronically characterized as excessive.

The real problem: How do we get the feds to leave once they've entered the house?

 

Related posts:

What's The Solution To The Stagnant Market ... The Pent House Sweet - Fran "The Title Man" Gaspari reveals his 3 point plan to rid the real estate world of its current woes.

California Foreclosures ... Stupidity or Greed
- Kaye Thomas aptly and honestly confronts the realities of markets in California.

Here's A Concept: Let's Just Do Nothing About the Mortgage Crises - Janet Guilbault pro-actively espouses a philosophy of passiveness towards the looming crises that's clamping down on our industry.

ActiveRain Mortgage/Housing Crises Resource - Bryant has generously compiled an anthology of all related posts.

 
The Typical Metro Detroit Foreclosure Family
- Chris Wales explores the "human factor" that's so often ignored when discussing foreclosures.  She offers a glimpse of reality with an important message at the close of this holiday weekend.

Massive Foreclosures Coming? The Market Is Speaking Loud And Clear - A painful dose of honesty and realism from Lenn Harley.

Update 11/25/07 

There are so many related posts being written that I'll simply defer to Bryant's compilation as the definitive referral source.

Lola Audo summarized the matter nicely:
"There must have been something about that Thanksgiving Turkey...The past 48 hours have spawned one of the most far reaching discussions that I've ever read on Activerain about the foreclosure crisis in different parts of the country.  The value of this discussion is enormous...both from an educational perspective and the ability for a professional forum to hash out some much needed analysis."


All are a must read!



 

68 Comments on A Coin Has Only Two Sides

NOV
24
2007
419,537 Points 71 Featured Posts Outside Blog Called Shot Master
And this is why you are one of the very best commentators here Ed, that's all I have to say for now.
8:27am • #1
4 Featured Posts
Interesting blog Ed. You raise some questions and points that have crossed all of our minds at some point. Where would the countless families displcaed by foreclosure live? The solution to the credit crunch must involve some Federal intervention. I agree with your October 2005 assesment of the downturn in Maryland.
8:28am • #2
227,171 Points Outside Blog

great post, I am a new subsciber to your blog.  very informative

8:35am • #3
42 Featured Posts

Jason

You are entirely too kind.  But, thank you! 

8:40am • #4
42 Featured Posts

Craig

Thanks, I appreciate your comment. 

8:43am • #5
296,965 Points 3 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router
Very good blog keep them coming.Your Orlando & Lake Mary Real Estate Expert, Heather Joubran
8:44am • #6
848,742 Points 153 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master
Ed, I have heard but can't prove it or find it, but maybe you know that Greenspan wrote his thesis on using home equity to stimulate the economy. Not recently but years ago. If you know if this is true, where can I read it.
8:48am • #7
616,508 Points 9 Featured Posts Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master
Yes, you are right. Greenspan and the government contributed to he problem for sure. Let us hope the recovery is quick...OK, at least timely.
8:50am • #8
4 Featured Posts

Ed,

I have continued to look for your Posts! and this Post shows exactly Why! This is extremely Informative..

Tom Weiss

8:51am • #9
42 Featured Posts

Dave

Thanks for subscribing.  I'd be careful though, this blog thrives on controversy. 

8:53am • #10
42 Featured Posts

Heather

I'll do my very best.  Thank you! 

8:54am • #11
276,436 Points 7 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor

Ed, as always...  Very well done, I am not sure what type of exterminators would do the trick???

Connor MacIVOR

8:54am • #12
170,739 Points 1 Featured Post

The answer is simple, they (the Feds) will never leave the house, ever.  They remove the doorknob as soon as they enter. 

 

8:56am • #13
42 Featured Posts

Missy

Give me a little to time to get back to you.  My son is a virtual expert on facts about Greenspan and others.  I'll ask him when he wakes up : ) 

8:57am • #14
Okay, you hooked me, I'll subscribe to your blog!
8:59am • #15
42 Featured Posts

Gary - There's no doubt that the federal reserve acted recklessly and weakened the foundation of a system that worked fairly well.

Tom - Thanks!  Like Jason, you're way to generous.

Connor - Extermination might be the answer.  Where do we begin?

Doreen - I agree with you.  The feds are here to stay.  The nature of homeownership is destined to change before long.  It will no longer be the guaranteed path to financial security that it once was.  We're going to be regulated and papered to the point of insanity.

Frank - Thanks for subscribing.  Again, beware.  I'm not here for points or a following.  I just like to rattle the cage. 

9:08am • #16
565,415 Points 35 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router Attended Rain Camp
Ed, WOW eloquent post. I am at a loss for words to express my gratitude for this post. I felt in my bones that Greenspan was the root cause, however I would never consider myself qualified to state it much less write about it. Seeing it so convincingly stated is satisfying. I have also felt we are in for a long ride and once again....not really qualified to state it or write about it. Thank you for writing this post. We all need to understand why we are where we are.
9:26am • #17
42 Featured Posts

Jeanean

I think we're in for a long ride and have no choice but to examine fiscal policy that failed while giving the appearance of success.   My sisters case deserves further attention as a prime example.  She was victimized by an unforgiving system with an insatiable appetite.  Her future is forever altered due to the decision to buy a particular home.  It's entirely plausible that the losses won't be recovered which would reduce her estate in time and the inheritance enjoyed by her children and grandchildren.  The consequences could affect the wealth of future generations.   Thanks for commenting.

9:44am • #18
936,830 Points 361 Featured Posts Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master
Another stellar post Ed! There is some really good info in the Rain this weekend. I think one thing we all agree with is "We ain't seen nothing yet" 2008 is going to be very ugly.
9:51am • #19
289,090 Points 66 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Ed - As always you paint a clear and real picture.  Thank you!

I had an issue with the original post (not Missy's) but instead of clouding your comment stream, I think it might be better to devote my own post to it.

 


10:15am • #20
42 Featured Posts

Bryant  - Thank you very much!  I agree, there's been some great dialog around here this weekend.  It's been enjoyable and enlightening.  I'm curious to see what the near future holds for the industry.

Mike - Thanks!  I'll look for your post. 

10:29am • #21
42 Featured Posts

Missy

It appears that Greenspan obtained his Ph.D. later in life from NYU and was spared the formality of completing a dissertation.  While younger, he abruptly ended his academic career to pursue, in a practical sense, his interest in economics.  While still in school, he had worked on a thesis that eluded completion.  It dealt with the savings and spending patterns of U.S. households. 

11:15am • #22
125,663 Points 24 Featured Posts

Ed.. Greenspan managed to create two of the biggest financial problems faced by this country in decades in less then 7 years.. the stock market crash of 2000 and the housing bust of 2006.. In each case he manipulated the prime rate  too quickly.  Instead of taking a course upward or downward and letting it sit for a period while the market responded he moved rates up and down on a monthly basis... never allowing the steps he did take to work their way through the markets. In my opinion the man is a twit.

I also found my comments turning into a post on the California real estate problems. These problems aren't going to go away.

11:33am • #23
42 Featured Posts

Kaye

We stand at the brink of a storm that will brew and rage for the better part of a decade.  I agree with your analysis of Greenspan and his monetary policy.  Dare I say it, but his plan to strong arm the economy to prosperity resembled a socialistic manifesto more than it did a a capitalistic philosophy.  Every college freshman knows that you can't initiate free trade by restraining market forces.

I look forward to your post about the marketplace in the great state of California. 

11:40am • #24
543,237 Points 39 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Ed,

Good article...the foxes have been in the 'henhouse' for some time now...it's not only the feds, its the greedy entrepreneurs in our own real estate industry! Thanks,   Fran

12:18pm • #25
42 Featured Posts

Fran

I like the analogy about the fox in the hen house.  Like you, I hope that a tenable solution presents itself. 

12:19pm • #26
503,876 Points 36 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router
Hi Ed, I really enjoyed this post. It made me understand Greenspan's actions better. I hadn't looked at it in that way. I can only hope that things will get better this next year. (I can dream can't I?)
12:41pm • #27
42 Featured Posts

Hi Lizette

I think that dreaming is a good thing.  I have a lot more to say about Greenspan's policies that exceed the scope of a single post.  Like you, I hope that things get better soon. 

12:44pm • #28
150,993 Points 4 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Hi Ed,

I will play the "Devils Advocate," don't the folks that bought homes through some very risky ARMs have some responsibility.  And the folks that have refinanced there home several times and spent the money instead of paying on their homes.  And the many lenders that got loans for people that really shouldn't have had them?

1:25pm • #29
42 Featured Posts

Leslie

I always enjoy playing the Devil's Advocate.  I agree that the borrowers and lenders bear responsibility.  But, so do the appraisers, and the real estate agents and title agents in many cases.   But, with that being said, where do we go from here?  If every home that's currently in default goes to foreclosure, we'll have a societal problem unlike any other confronted in our nation's history.  It gets worse.  At this time, outstanding sub-prime mortgages total $1.3 trillion.  Of the sub-prime mortgages originated between 2004 and 2006, roughly 90% of them are adjustable with a peak adjustment period that spans January - June of next year.  Many are expected to default. 

What do we do then?  This is a problem that won't go away.
2:02pm • #30

I am going o play the devils advocate too,

Your sister and her husband did not have to buy those cars or the BIG new house, Sounds like vanity got

 twist my arm.  fotosearch - search  clipart, illustration,  drawings and vector  eps graphics imagesTWIST MY ARM

the best of them. Not Greenspan, Have you ever read "The Millionaire Next Door"?

Rene Hunter
2:35pm • #31
145,902 Points 5 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor
Your sister will be OK. 

It is a good thing she doesn't need to sell right NOW.  I predict that by the time she and her husband need to sell the market will have turned around!

If they did have to sell now, there's no way to know what would happen until the house was on the market.  Also they might make up for the money they percieved as a loss by getting a GREAT DEAL on a samller home right now!  Just my 2C.
2:43pm • #32
42 Featured Posts

Rene

There's no question that vanity plays into the equation along with a big promotion and a lot more money.  But, that still doesn't solve the problem of rapidly devaluing properties.  People who trusted the system had every reason to.  This saga is going to impact the distribution of wealth in this country for generations to come. 

3:01pm • #33
42 Featured Posts

Debbie

There's no question that my sister will fare just fine in the long run.  I like your suggestion that lost ground could be made up on another purchase.  Still, people are contending with issues that simply need not exist.   

3:04pm • #34
289,211 Points 2 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog
Greenspan won't take responsibilty, that's a given, the government  will act, after all they bail out big companies why not so something to help the little guy
3:31pm • #35
I can only speak for my area; Although the sales price has been reduced sellers are still seeing a profit. It may not bee 10 fold as they thought they should get but more likely in the 20 % range which is still better then a savings account. I think people had come to expect unrealistic profits and we are now seeing an adjustment to normalcy.go to full image
3:34pm • #36

"We stand at the brink of a storm that will brew and rage for the better part of a decade."

Dead on. It's also a Category 5 storm.

"I will play the "Devils Advocate," don't the folks that bought homes through some very risky ARMs have some responsibility."

Risk is relative. Am Option ARM can be a great loan for the right person.

For all you agents who now attack ARMs, did you ever refuse to participate in a transaction because the loan was risky, knowing that they wouldn't be able to qualify with a 30 yr fixed?? I'll bet I can count the number on one hand. 

3:58pm • #37
323,528 Points 45 Featured Posts Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp

Hi Ed - I couldn't agree more with Jason Sardi!

And I also agree with Rene Hunter's comments, in particular her second comment with the 'pie in the sky' graphic.  Here in my area, my market has stablized, and has been doing so for the last 8-10 months or so.  In some areas and on some homes, we are seeting signs of more than stabilizing, with multiple offers and/or over asking prices on some, SOME, properties, but they were priced very realistically to begin with.  A good chunk of the northeast has been spared the bad hits that some other parts of the country took, but we still have pockets here and there that didn't fare as well.

I hope reason and sanity grabs hold at some point, and that some of this mortgage crisis gets squared away somehow, soon.

4:03pm • #38
389,496 Points 17 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Ed, what an informative post! Wow, who knew? Not me for sure. How is it that ONE man gets all of that power? Was he in power during the 1990's as well? I remember how the market tanked then, and I figured that real estate is pretty cyclical. I think many got way in over their heads and now will pay the price, and I know that it becomes a domino affect. I'm very positive about how things will turn out, but I think it will take into next year. I'm seeing dribs and drabs coming in by way of buyers/sellers, and Arizona is typically an affordable state for housing. I think it's getting that way again after two years. It started here in October 2005 as well. I'm keeping good thoughts.........just keeping my face out there. :-)

http://www.GlitterMaker.com/ - Glitter Graphics

4:14pm • #39
597,161 Points 45 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Ed, you write such wonderfully thought provoking posts. Everyone is concerned with the loss of home value - what about retirement accounts, IRAs in the stock market, company pension programs invested in securities without sound basis? This could be just the tip of a tentacle.
4:25pm • #40
Localism Sponsor

Somewhere I grew up with the belief, "Never gamble more than you're willing or able to lose"

4:25pm • #41
109,251 Points Outside Blog
You wrote a post bound to provoke discussion. Many of us are looking at what created this situation and how we are going to move through it. I don't believe we have seen the worst and also wonder what our tolerance will be for boarded up homes. 
4:35pm • #42
42 Featured Posts

Michael - I agree, but feel compelled to add that the feds will have no choice but to help the little guy at the expense of big business.

Rene - I'm glad to hear that positive adjustments have occurred in your market.  I've heard that resort areas are doing well overall. 

Bob - Thanks for the commentary.  The collective sins of our industry's past are now being revealed.  I agree, no one was complaining when quick and easy money was readily available. 

Ann - Thanks for the compliment.  A sane perspective and a moment of pause seems to bring most matters into focus.  Some pundits are suggesting that a national bubble is a fallacy and that regional imbalances are most likely.  I've hated the word bubble since the first time I heard it used to describe a real estate crises. 

4:48pm • #43
42 Featured Posts

Teri - Some would argue that the chairman of the federal reserve is the most powerful person on earth.  He alone determines monetary policy.  I'm hoping your  assessment is correct about 2008 being the turn around year.

Sharon - Thank you!  We need to recognize that real estate markets connect organically to security and bond markets.  The loss of equity in a home could have financial consequences within a family for generations to come.

Terri - I agree about gambling.  In fact, I don't gamble at all.   In this post, I'm trying to emphasize the plight of innocent homeowners who are suffering losses through no fault of their own. 

Christina - This concept of tolerance for foreclosed properties is interesting to explore.  In the past, boarded up properties existed mostly in neighbors that we didn't see or experience very often.  Now, we face the real possibility of the house next door being boarded up.  It's a sad reality for middle class America that touches us all. 

4:58pm • #44
354,272 Points 137 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog
Ed, I am struck most by your last statement..."How do we get the Feds to leave once they've entered the house?"  My suspicion is they won't.  We haven't begun to imagine the adventures and twists and turns this story will take when and if that happens.  Very interesting post...Thanks.
5:22pm • #45
42 Featured Posts

Lola

Your very welcome.  I suspect that we'll see federal intervention before long.  The proposed changes to the bankruptcy code (H.R. 3609) could be properly construed as intrusion by lenders. 

It's going to get interesting.

5:40pm • #46
Localism Sponsor
Ed, not a gambler here either. Nothing more important to me than my Home and Family. I agree, it's tragic when people lose their home through no fault of their own. With the recent California Fires, there are people who were under insured or no Insurance at all and the results are devastating. We just never know when something can happen that can turn our whole world upside down. Like you, we can only try to make sense of it, educate people and use this wonderful forum to help others avoid these tragic consequences.
6:16pm • #47
569,934 Points 100 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router
That ultimately is the question: How do we get the feds to leave once they've entered the house?
6:28pm • #48

Ed,  Thank you for such an informative and concise post.  I used to shake my head in wonder before I entered real estate and began to listen to business news.  In my "housewife" days I used to throw my hands up and say, there is SOMEONE SOMEWHERE, maybe a group of men who have the "formula" of just how to squeeze any small increase we manage to get into a cd or savings account, they know how to make life hard just to squeeze those of us in the middle class.  We pay for everything.

I never liked Alan Greenspan.  I used to sit and watch him and hear his name and wonder, how does this man rule all the gold in our nation, direct every dime towards housing costs, insurance costs, cars credit cards.  It my less than enlightened days I was right, it was Greenspan.

It's discouraging to know one man has that much power.  Who appointed him anyway.  Was it Clinton?

By the way I live in a tourist/retirement community, Drummond Island Michigan, and Rene, I heard all about your wonderful state, and it's coastal resorts and communities.  S.C. was visited by my co-worker and he said that so many Floridians are moving to your state.  You must be busy.  Hey send some of your residents to Michigan for our wonderful cool summers!

Thanks again Ed, your post was indeed very enlightening and interesting. 

6:42pm • #49
42 Featured Posts

Terri - Thanks, I appreciate your insight.

Randy - I'm concerned that a relatively minor attempt at regulation by the feds will morph into something very restrictive.  It's almost obscene to think that a bankruptcy court could have the authority to alter mortgages to make them affordable to borrowers.  Lenders must be concerned about instability in the future.  I'd like to believe that a normal correction could correct the problem, but fear that it's too widespread.

Vivian - Greenspan was appointed by Reagan and served until two years ago.  You're right, the middle class will ultimately foot the bill for the current crises.

6:58pm • #50

   Vivienne     -         Yes Thank you it is very beautiful here; we call the Floridians Half-backers , chances are they moved to Florida from the North didn't like it or wanted to be closer to their families in the North and still want to enjoy the ocean and warm weather. North & South Carolina provides the perfect location & sanctuary.  Our prices are down but sellers know what they have and are stubborn when it comes to lowering their price to much.

We have a situation where people watch the doom & gloom news reports about the real estate market and want to come down here and put ridiculous  low offers on properties. Only to be turned down.

If you want to exchange links for your web site I would be happy to and would love to have you in my referral bank.

Rene
7:39pm • #51
405,259 Points 25 Featured Posts Outside Blog Called Shot Master

Ed, 

I know the area, I used to work at GBMC. I agree with your post. Florida is still a wonderful place to live, even in this market.  I moved here in 2003, and now consider myself as a Floridian...The cold weather bothers my back.  I do agree though NC and SC are beautiful.

I also joined your blogs...great post!

I agree, Greenspan, jumped ship...

8:05pm • #52
615,234 Points Localism Sponsor Outside Blog
Your posts are always interesting and informative. Thanks for sharing.
9:03pm • #53
NOV
25
2007
186,349 Points 2 Featured Posts Called Shot Master

OK. I'll give this a shot. Here's some of my perspective.

I think that Alan Greenspan was (is) a pretty smart guy. Just because he failed to predict the ultimate consequences of one of his policies does not make him any less intelligent to me. Overall, I think his policies have been very good for the economy. I believe what we are in now is a market correction, brought about by market action. In my eyes, a classic example of "Supply and Demand", with a bit of greed thrown in.

For most of the 90's, we enjoyed historically low interest rates and people were buying homes. This is a good thing. Historically, when the FED raised interest rates, mortgage rates raised in lockstep. During this period, a curious thing happened. The FED raising interest rates did not have as great an effect on mortgages as it had in the past. The housing industry was attracting large financial institutions and many mortgage companies were born. This caused a great deal of competition and a resistance to raising interest rates. A good thing for the consumer. Home ownership is now at an all time high.

During the 90's, all the best customers, the one's with good credit, jobs, down-payments, etc., were buying homes. I am a Landlord and I noticed that the quality of the pool of renters during this period declined. All the best ones were buying! Then when the pool of qualified buyers with downpayments started to dry up, the financial markets came out with new products: 100% loans for people with good credit. They had to continue to make loans and this was a reasonable approach.

During the early 2000"s, the mortgage industry was employing more people than ever and they all had to be paid. The pool of qualified buyers was shrinking and somehow this pool had to be expanded. So along comes these new products (loans) that practically anyone could qualify for. Poor credit, a historical indication of the ability/willingness to repay, was not much of an obstacle to obtaining a loan and these products opened the door to fraudulent loans. Not a good idea. Basic financial principles were being ignored. It was hoped that double-digit appreciation would cover this risky approach. This is the classic "house of cards." When appreciation slowed, and, surprise, when these credit risks could not make their payments, the house of cards collapsed.

I do feel sorry for the innocent people who got caught up in this. I have no sympathy for the "investor" who was flipping and got burned.

I think that the people who perpetrated the largest loan frauds should go to jail. I predict that virtually no one will do jail time. I am not keen on the Government finding a solution to our current problem. I would like the financial markets to take their lumps and learn a lesson. I am conflicted that innocent people are victims and will suffer. I am not against new safeguards that prevent this from happening again, if they do not restrict market competition for loans.

I predict that 2008 will not be that bad for the national housing market, (partly because it is an election year), and 2009 will be back to a more normal market. There will be regions that are still behind, but improved, probably Florida and California. Fuel prices are a wild card that will affect spending and jobs. If we start to loose jobs, all bets are off.

12:01am • #54

I sold my place in 2005 because common sense told me real estate that doubled if not tripled in 7 years was wrong.  Now I live in a 900 square foot house taking care of my handicap mother.  Anyone with any common sense could see things were out of control.  I am sorry Ed..  but your sister is not a victim.  They have 60 years of history to make decisions from and everyone knows what goes up fast will come down faster.   Who is the real victim?..  Me living in a 900 sq. ft. house in the middle of Michigan or your sister.  Furthermore when did our society start thinking that children were entitled to inheritance..  GIVE ME A BREAK..  The best thing that could happen is 1/2 this country and mostly baby boomer's become poor leaving no backup for the spoiled children running around with 500 dollar jeans and ipods hanging from their heads..    I have been saving and not spending and living a very frugal life even though I was promoted and make a good living to..    If I can do it  your sister can do it to..    Personal Responsibility will finally become the "word of the year"

 

 

Annon
2:11am • #55
42 Featured Posts
Karen - GBMC is a great hospital.  Thanks for commenting and subscribing.

Bob & Carolin - Thank you!

Wayne -   I want to offer my thoughts in two respects.  I am still something of a Greenspan fan though my views changed with the recent release of his book and a series of interviews.  The man clearly admits to being an informal fiscal adviser to Clinton.  His behavior during the 1990's reeked of impropriety.  I agree that global forces often compel markets to react differently than expected when interest rates are altered.  Still, in my mind, Greenspan artificially held rates low to portray a perception of prosperity that didn't exist.  While the policy itself didn't cause the current crises it certainly laid the groundwork for abuse by lenders, Wall Street, and real estate insiders in general.  I feel that we're dealing with something much different than a normal market correction at this time.  It's certainly not part of a historical cycle.   Like you, I favor federal convictions for those who commit mortgage fraud.  I also support the prosecution of those guilty of predatory lending practices.  Thank you for offering such an insightful comment.
6:15am • #56
42 Featured Posts

Annon

It just so happens that I live in a 900 sq ft condo.  I applaud your commitment to your mother.  Like you, I sold a house in November of 2000 because of a sense that something was very wrong.   I had a concern that housing values were escalating faster than incomes and a market collapse was inevitable.  It's surprising to me that the crash didn't happen much earlier.  Interestingly, the couple that bought my house sold it a year later for $100,000 more than they paid for it.  I would have done well to hold until 2005.  But, who knew!

I believe that our economy and our social values are highly dependent on stability in real estate markets.  For one thing housing is concerned.  One might argue that the stock market is analogous.  The vast difference is the ease with which one can trade stocks compared to the difficulties of  selling a home.   Although, I have to admit that I don't disagree with you entirely.  Prudent adults should have enough sense to recognize patently disastrous situations.  The scenario is equivalent to the S&L crises of the 1980's.  S&L's were offering substantially higher returns on investment vehicles than other institutions. The writing was on the wall for anyone who cared to pay attention.

While I agree that society, in general, is spoiled and that a dose of poverty is probably a good thing, I do believe that accrued wealth should stay in families. 

I've read your comments on other blogs and appreciate your sarcastic wit and honesty.  You're welcome here. 

6:53am • #57
321,006 Points 52 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Ed, I've read your article twice and each time not only am I struck by the human side (your sister and her family) but at the country and industry wide reality.  I'm one of those who didn't purchase "up" when I had the opportunity to.  I chose not to for very specific reasons.  That doesn't mean I look at others who saw an opportunity to enrich their lives and their families lives as being naive or shortsighted.  I can sympathize with them and think "That could have been me.."  

I'm not crazy about more federal regulation or intervention.  But I am open to a solid economic solution/s to a path of recovery for my area and our nation.

 

8:13am • #58
42 Featured Posts

Hi Kris

Thanks for your kind comments.  It's strange, but the devaluation in housing markets has effectively penalized many households for attempting to move up and realize the dream.

I'm not at all convinced that we're contending with a normal cyclical correction.  For one thing, some aspects of the problem were created by the feds holding rates artificially low for an inordinate length of time.  Also, the industry itself appears dysfunctional in many respects.  Mortgage fraud is a part of the problem as is predatory lending, but licensing and continuing education requirements are at fault at well. 

Even if a miraculous self-correction were to occur, what has changed to keep the crises from heating up again quickly?  We can't cling to a business model that's miserably failed the citizens of this country in the recent past. 

I'm possibly the greatest proponent of capitalism and free market enterprise, but intervention appears to make the most sense in this case.   It's reassuring, at some level, to think that the pending foreclosures would somehow purge and purify the system.  But, the head count would be staggering and the scars permanent.  Shouldn't the industry pay a price if consumers are expected to? 

I think a wait and see attitude is fatalistic since we're dealing with something in desperate need of emergency care.  I say "stop the bleeding," then diagnose the symptoms and make recommendation.  Thanks again.

8:50am • #59
110,915 Points 26 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

The artificially created perception of prosperity had become a reality for a nation that believes that bigger is better and every debt can be settled tomorrow

Ed that one statement in this brilliant, and I do mean brilliant peice says volumes. I would offer that the seeds were planted in the 80s. By 1984, just about every person I worked with wanted a Mercedes....including me, and for most of my life a car did not determine who I was. It was the glorious days of consumerism. I suppose others could argue that the 'keeping up with the Jones' mentality has been around since the Fifties. No matter, it all led as you said, to me standing in a yard in Rockville Maryland in 1985 as two buyers tried to outbid each other for a perfectly nice but not mansion-like colonial in a community called Woodley Park.  We had gone to an open house there.  Needless to say we did not participate in the auction.  I think that was when Maryland started entering the 'real estate IS life' arena that Brian Brady and other California peeps have been discussing.

It has to end but how do we end it????? Education yes but will anyone listen?  Again, thanks for a BRILLIANT peice that is getting lots of link love from me now.

7:58pm • #60
243,154 Points 25 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Called Shot Master

Ed,

With China and other countries backing away from buying our bonds and securities because of our faltering economy, this problem is clearly more widespread than just housing and isn't going to clear up quickly. 

Save your cash for purchases and leave your equity alone would be a great start for many who want to stay as unscathed as possible through this time.  With three kids in college, I won't be able to follow my own advice, though.

I have a family member thats story is similar to your sisters, only "keeping up with the Jones'" has put them in a very compromised position where they clearly stand a chance on losing it all.  Living a lifestyle that is financed by credit cards and home equity is a recipe for disaster.

10:30pm • #61
NOV
26
2007
I believe after 911, the sub prime and home equity loans saved the economy and everyone at the top new there would be sacrifices in the future.
1:49am • #62
42 Featured Posts

Carole - I'm really at a loss for words except to say "Thank You!"

Fran - People need to understand that home equity isn't something to tinker with on a daily basis.  I appreciate the broad view of the crises espoused in your comments. 

Chris - Without a doubt, 911 plays into the equation.  It's so difficult to sort through all the variables. 

6:37am • #63
NOV
27
2007

While no one really wants to waste time on blame, it is probably just as important to understand how we got here as well as where we need to go.  The former constricts the latter to some extent.
Greenspan certainly made choices, starting from his early days as Fed Chairman under Reagan (he was appointed in 87).  If you recall, we were then in the throes of the S&L debacle created by lax lending rules precipitated by Reagan's deregulation of S&Ls.  The RTC bailout created a model for government response to huge national crisis with extensive tentacles.  Will they do so again?  Stay tuned - but my bet is a qualified yes.... qualification being the bailout will be aimed elsewhere than the borrowers who will be met with the chant of "personal responsibility".  These same borrowers are tax paying citizens who will fund the Wall Street bailout.
Remember, the ruling crew in Washington live by the mantra "We want to shrink government to the point that it can be drowned in a bathtub" (Grover Nordquist).  This means that any program with a positive effect will be systematically destroyed so they can tell us "see what a bad job government does when it tries to do anything" and we will say amen as we always do.  Do not expect a bailout that massively helps citizens, as that can only happen at the expense of Wall Street.
I closed many deals in the RTC days.  I was involved in the largest piece of dirt the RTC held by doing a deed in lieu.  I then got to enjoy closing the property some years later to a Saudi investor.  The difference in the original loan to what the investor paid was $231.5million.  This was almost $1 out of the pocket of each man, woman and child in America.  We paid it then and we will pay again when, as someone said above, the Government comes in and removes the handle from the door.
Sorry to be so dark.  I would love for someone here (and I am very happy to see the number of extraordinarily bright and succinct comments) to help me out of this funk!

Tim Killcoyne
4:01pm • #64
42 Featured Posts

Tim

Isn't it great to see so much interest in such a complicated topic.  I wish I had thought to direct Title-opoly readers here sooner.  A provocative comment - by the way. 

4:10pm • #65
Yes Ed.  Again I have to commend you for getting this buggy fired up. 
If there are answers to be had (and I pray there are that include a minimal amount of bloodletting) it is going to come from the folks on the ground.  And that's what I love about participating in the threads you start.  It will not come from Baltimore, or Denver or Sacremento and it sure as h**l isnt gonna come from Washington.  These places are populated with folks who only know how to close the barn when the horses are already out.
Good job.
Tim Killcoyne
5:27pm • #66
42 Featured Posts

Tim

Thank You! 

5:31pm • #67
NOV
29
2007

"I do feel sorry for the innocent people who got caught up in this. I have no sympathy for the "investor" who was flipping and got burned."

My sentiments as well.

"Sorry to be so dark.  I would love for someone here (and I am very happy to see the number of extraordinarily bright and succinct comments) to help me out of this funk!"

Darkness is part of the cycle. Sunny skies 24/7 is not a natural occurrence, even though many in this business seem to think so. Deceiving ourselves by pretending that all we have to do is click our heels like Dorothy and say "The market is good, the market is good" isn't going to make it happen. The devastation caused by the RTC (as illustrated by your example) can easily be replicated in the coming months, and I believe is now unavoidable. 

Time to act as fiduciaries and not push people into next year's disaster. Not everyone who can buy should buy. 

12:06pm • #68

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