Inspired by the discussion taking place about the current mortgage/foreclosure crisis, I pose the following question: What if we just did nothing? That's right. Nada. Zip. Zilch.

No government intervention. Stop playing the blame game...   (what does it matter?) What would happen if we just plain old sat back and let the market take care of the problem?

Oh, boy. What a concept.

Let's see. Has anyone thought about the fact that when a house goes into foreclosure something else happens BESIDES the borrower losing his home? That's right, the lender loses his shirt (read: loses money big time). Have we forgotten what the "short" in short sale refers to?

Trust me when I say, even in appreciating markets, lenders do not want to be in the business of owning and selling real estate, and lose money in a foreclosure.

Lenders, like other businesses, must quickly adopt a vastly different business model that corrects the issue or THEY ARE OUT OF BUSINESS. This is why guidelines are so tight right now that even lower interest rates have not brought the buyers back.

What about the borrower that took the loan with the "teaser" rate? He also must adapt to the reality that the investment he made in his real estate has gone sour, eliminating his ablity to refinance. He must pay the higher payment to keep his home, or face foreclosure. He, too must a adopt a new strategy to survive.

Is losing a house to foreclosure a horrible thing? Yes. But life goes on. He rents a house he can actually afford. He vows to understand the next financial contract he signs. If he had a 100% loan, and lived in the property, he didn't really lose much money (if any).

Real estate prices will spiral downward as a "do nothing" approach takes place. Lenders, borrowers, and the economy are forced to adjust. Many fewer can qualify to buy. Those that can are fearful to jump into the game. People who planned to move now cannot sell.

Real estate agents and mortgage brokers leave the business in droves to find new careers. Lenders go under. "Get Rich In Real Estate" seminars go away. Without equitylines, spending is curtailed. The entire economy must adjust to the new reality, spreading pain as the new reality trickles down.

Does any of this sound familiar?

What are we left with at the end? Could it be something clean and streamlined? Could it be something better than we had before? I say YES. And it could all happen without our government casting out a net to save us from ourselves.

Intervention in this process by the government will only prolong the healing and create a whole new set of problems. It always does. Let the dollars fall where they will, and let lessons be absorbed. We Americans are survivors and masters at adjusting to bad times.

The real estate agent and mortgage lenders left standing are the strongest and the best. The buyers who now qualify for mortgages have downpayments and documented income. "Speculation" (as a motivation to buy) has gone away, and true investors return, attracted to lower prices.

Consumers curtail spending, watch credit scores far more carefully, save money, and pay off credit cards. Equitylines are used for emergencies, simply avoided, or unavailable due to lack of equity. Designer loans are shunned. The real estate community is held to a new level of scrutiny.

There is hell to pay as prices go down, but silver linings begin to emerge.  The opportunity for homeownership is opened up to millions of first time buyers...(many people my age just assumed our kids would never own a home in California).

And slowly, as it always does in a free market economy, our dollars are naturally attracted to what is right and best for the economy. Funny how that works. It has made us the greatest economy in the world, so why should we let the politicians tamper with it?

Even putting a band aid on a wound assumes the wound will heal by itself. But I've noticed taking the band aid off and giving the wound air almost always makes the healing go faster.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

40 Comments on Here's A Concept: Let's Just Do Nothing About the Mortgage Crisis

NOV
24
2007
231,033 Points 59 Featured Posts Outside Blog

>I hope this one gets a lot of attention as well.  Janet happens to be one the better Mortgage Contributors on here!<

Sounds like we just need to breathe...............

12:29pm • #1
124,440 Points 84 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog
Thanks, Jason. And Happy Thanksgiving. My libertarian tendencies coming out....
12:31pm • #2
296,903 Points 9 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog
I think we need some reforms to stop the abuses -- the lender had the ability to deny the loan in the first place when they saw the person was probably not creditworthy.  Also, it looks like from reports on CNN and the articles in the Wall Street Journal there were lenders taking advantage of the yield spread and putting buyers into higher costs loans.  These reports/articles found that if the lender had not done so, MANY buyers would have not been in foreclosure or heading toward foreclosure.
12:46pm • #3
534,907 Points 236 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog
Hi Janet. I'm with you on this one. The only way we will learn from our mistakes is to let this crisis play out. Who knows....maybe on the other side of hell is where Utopia is located. 
12:46pm • #4
124,440 Points 84 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Joan: I don't agree. It is easy to say that lenders "Abused" borrowers, so let's just blame lenders for "taking advantage" of buyers.  You are still playing the blame game.

Lenders have every right to charge what the market will bear. Borrowers have responsibility to shop for loans and compare. Lenders have always had the ability to deny a loan to someone who is not credit worthy.

Borrowers have the ablity to not take out a loan they cannot afford NOW or at some point in the future.

Both lenders and borrowers are guilty of immediate gratification taking place over the responsibility of long term consequences.

Reforms are already taking place...the lenders are doing themselves. And borrowers are nnot getting those loans now.

1:12pm • #5
1 Featured Post Outside Blog

The market will correct itself whether the government interferes or not.

Anyway, when has government ever actually "HELPED" a situation get better.. outside of natural disasters.

Great Post and I'm happy to see it featured. 

1:22pm • #6
349,838 Points 40 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Janet: 

Congratulations on the feature!  As a lender, I concur with your well written theme.  Another benefit of the shakeout will be more astute real estate investors as time goes on. 

Mike in Tucson

1:26pm • #7

I love this very Darwinian approach ... it makes the most sense.  Just rip off the band-aid instead of sloooooooowly pulling it away.  They both hurt ... but one only hurts for a small period of time!

1:31pm • #8
119,794 Points 4 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Hi Janet,

I agree with your featured post.  The thing that concerns me now is that Congress is going to try to FIX everything and will undoubtedly make things worse in the long run.

1:43pm • #9
Localism Sponsor
Good Job Janet! I agree, I hope our daughter and SIL can afford to buy here in Ca. when the market settles. When our Daughter got married a couple of years ago, we bought them a new car because there was no way to afford a down payment on even a condo they could afford. The mini Cooper was a sound investment! Great gas mileage and keeping the value! They have good jobs and good credit, as a Mom, I'm sure glad they didn't make a poor choice and buy something they couldn't afford.
2:04pm • #10
4 Featured Posts

You go Janet!!!

I say rip the band aid off, and expose the wound for what it is. Like anything else, people will adapt, and there will be plenty of new buyerrs to pick up the pieces.

After all in the late '80's at 19 years old, I NEVER imagined buying a home, until the wave of foreclosures hit as a result of aerospace melting down. A few years later, another opportunity, and so on and so on. The difference is I always put my own money into it, so I held myself accountable unless I wanted to lose the money, which I never wanted to, and never did.

You're by far one of my favorites to read! :)

2:11pm • #11
1 Featured Post Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router
I'm with you.  This makes the most sense to me.  This is somethng that no one person or group is ever going to be able to control.  The market will work it's way through this.
2:20pm • #12
344,447 Points 17 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Thank you Janet! Americans especially, don't like to face the fact that there are consequences for our actions. One of the oldest known laws: Newton's Law of Motion. For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.
2:24pm • #13
2 Featured Posts

The market forces are already at work.  In those cases where it makes financial sense for the lender to prop up the borrower they likely will do so because it's in their best interest.   If the properties that are foreclosed become good investments for buyers with some money down hopefully they'll stay in those homes and not perpetuate the cycle of poor financial decisions. 

Let the market play out.

2:31pm • #14
108,545 Points Outside Blog

I completely agree.  Kudos on a great post. 

The government has always created more harm than good when trying to deal with situations like this.  We only need to look back in time to the S&L situation.  Congress passed legislation allowing S&L's to capitalize certain deferred loan costs that should have been expensed, which ultimately delayed the inevitable S&L failures.

The best solution is to let the capital and credit markets correct themselves, which they have already begun doing.  Wall Street has already written off $44 billion in potential credit losses and will still be having the 2nd best year on record. 

The best way to deal with this crisis is to let the market adjust itself and to step up to the plate and write off the losses as quickly as possible, which will help everyone move on. 

3:00pm • #15
7 Featured Posts
Wow, interesting thoughts... Thanks for sharing your opinion.  It makes sense to me!
3:39pm • #16
145,157 Points 3 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Amen and amen!  Most band aids tend to slip-off anyway.  Let the market heal itself.
4:06pm • #17
250,831 Points 15 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Janet, you are thinking like me. It is just what happens with markets when they get too heated. There were safegards built in and no one wanted to play straight. It just needs to settle out. There is a correlation between a morgage and income unless you own a money printing press. I would have to guess the default on car loans is up also. Living in a very poor area of the country where good jobs are find to find and living is harder the people tend to become much more conservative than you guys on the West Coast. Most of our New Orleans foreclosures are the result of Katrina and the flooding. Sixty per cent of the folks happen to be renters in New Orleans and not homeowners. I had a sale and the client got a 100% loan with a variable rate and could not understand it at the time. He was from California and that was a first for me. That is one out of 200 sales I have had in the last 4 years. We just get a different exposure in the Swamps. Good point you made in the blogs.      

4:12pm • #18
117,104 Points 12 Featured Posts Hit Router

I agree, so many of the upside down loans I see were 100% financing deals. The seller does not have a lot to lose. 

Hopefully they will learn something from this, and we can work toward a more financially responsible culture.  Hopefully the days of charging whatever we want on our credit cards, and home equity lines will be corrected. 

I think it's better for people's mental health to not be so pushed to the max anyway.

4:34pm • #19
The free market tends to work things out. I do like the idea of lenders getting out of the business that just got in for a quick buck. Our business will survive and become a stronger profession as a result of this. Thank you for your post.
4:52pm • #20

Janet--Keeping Congress out of things will probably be the best thing. The market will take care of it self

without the help of the politicians--thanks--mike

5:03pm • #21

He,llo Janet,

Great Post!! I totally agree, when our government gets involved the situation always gets worse. It is so easy for people to blame the lenders and say we are taking advantage of yeild spread but no one complains about the 6% charged to sell the home, I do not know about you but I do not make anywhere close to 6 points on a loan. I am glad to see the market cleansing itself by starving the get rich quick LO's and agents that should have not been in our industry in the first place; what you will be left with is the good quality LO's and Agents that take pride in their jobs and have the clients best interest at heart. Keep up the good work.

Ron

5:06pm • #22
441,600 Points 147 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Janet.... I couldn't help myself. I will say that this deserved a gold star and a comment. I have been thinking for the last 3 months, especially after several posts emerged yesterday... who cares. Honestly, I was telling myself, the topic is so over-talked about. Sure... people are venting and voicing their opinions. But how does that help the public? Just pointing fingers per se?  This was an excellent post and well-written. I guess my anger in the topics lately wanted me to write a post, who cares. But you took my emotion here and wrote it brilliantly. 

Overall, one of the best points you made is that even though the consumer loses their house, that the lender doesn't want it either. The bottom line is that it's a catch 22 ...because you would think the lenders would bend over to help, from keeping this from happening. But then what does that tell the average client?  Don't pay and we will come help and bail you out. This is just bad. As so many of us have mentioned, just let it play itself out. But unfortunately, it's called politics at its best.  Great job here...

jeff belonger
5:12pm • #23
20 Featured Posts

Janet.. You go Girl.. I couldn't agree more .. this is a problem that a band-aid won't cure.  Most of those in trouble are going down anyway we would be better off to get it over with sooner rather then later.  I've been through a number of markets and truthfully this is a fact of California real estate.. prices go flat.. go up... go down.. go flat and the cycle repeats every 7-10 years. 

In addition to stronger loan guidelines I would like to see tought requirements to get a real estate license and to be a lender. Are a few classes in basic finance and economics too much to ask?

5:18pm • #24
I think this is a market correction, it's going to have to run it's course.
5:38pm • #25
279,654 Points 99 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog
Janet, I agree with your proposed solution...however, I have reservations about the timing.  With an election cycle looming, I think it will be very difficult for our politicians to avoid the temptation to come up with "solutions."  No matter how ill advised...JMHO.
7:06pm • #26
733,593 Points 205 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router

BINGO! ! !

It's so simple.  THE MARKET WILL RULE.  There will no doubt be, as Lola suggests, political tinkering.  But, when buyers sat at the closing table and the closing attorney said, "You pay, you stay", that meant exactly what it said.

Fasten your seat belts, it's going to be a bumpy ride.

 

 

 

7:56pm • #27
Janet you Libertarian, Neil Boortz would be proud!  Love this post.  You and I speak the same language!
8:51pm • #29
290,181 Points Outside Blog
Interesing. Had been thinking the same thing -- but felt was in a minority.
9:00pm • #30

Consumers curtail spending, watch credit scores far more carefully, save money, and pay off credit cards. Equitylines are used for emergencies, simply avoided, or unavailable due to lack of equity. Designer loans are shunned. The real estate community is held to a new level of scrutiny.

I couldn't agree more.  Only with crucial financial knowledge in high school, college and ongoing into adulthood will we begin to have an economically stable system.  Going beyond knowledge to apply the wisdom in the reality of our lives is the cure -- those with the personal discipline to work toward a good credit score, saving money for a 20% down payment on a home they can truly afford are still eligible for loans in spite of the lending crisis.  As in all of life, success comes back to character.  This crisis shows our 'national' character is tarnished and faltering. Introspection and repentance would be huge toward getting the clear eyes needed to see a solution; we can all acknowledge where we stepped off the path, and determine to make the necessary course corrections.  I agree that our industry needs to do some effective realignment and re-thinking of our past actions.  Thanks for a tremendous post!

9:39pm • #31
124,440 Points 84 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Marsha: What a well written comment. I had never considered this a character issue, but perhaps you are right. When there are tremendous amounts of money involved, we seem to "tarnish" quite quickly trying to get on the bandwagon. I have never agreed that "GREED" created this crisis, because "greed" is what makes people want to have more money in the most effecient way. 

I think it was much more of a frenzy that built up as a result of everyone wanting to get rich easily with real estate. True, some found a way to do it by taking advantage of others (fraud). But mostly, people, agents, and lenders just road the wave, selling houses to willing buyers, and arranging mortgages for willing borrowers.

Is it just a coincidence that it came right after the "get rich easily through the stock market" period? I sometimes wonder what impact this get rich quick theme will have on coming generations. After all, my parents are still impacted by the depression! This stuff will follow those that came of age during this era forever.

10:45pm • #32
124,440 Points 84 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog
Lola and Lenn: Yes, tinkering there will be. And as you pointed out in your blog, Lenn, many new questions and issues to solve as a result. I wish they would just focus on something else.
10:50pm • #33
9 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor

Wait a minute, you mean someone with a credit score of 580 and with no provable source of income can't just claim they make $200K a year, and get a loan for a $550,000 home anymore?  What a concept!

Seriously, though, I will say that it is sad and it is hard to see people who really thought they were doing the right thing for their families go down the road to foreclosure.  But the US market has always made corrections of one kind or another.  As a matter of fact, the slow, steady increase of prices over a decade could be considered a correction of sorts, couldn't it? 

I like your thinking.  Thank you.

11:19pm • #34
NOV
25
2007
Great post.  However, I am a bit befuddled, this came from your info box at the top right of the page, >>>> 'Cutting edge strategies and solutions for owning and financing California real estate.'    Ah yes, . . . Be weary of the money chnagers'. 
A Passing On-Looker
12:30am • #35
124,440 Points 84 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

To Passing On-Looker: Do you find this post in conflict with providing strategies and solutions for owning and financing California real estate? You shouldn't...

Marlene: Yes, our old guidelines were ridiculously loose!!!! You forgot to mention having no down payment as well. Not sure if I would call the increase of prices a correction. A trend, maybe?

Kaye: I agree that standards should be higher for those in the industry. That is what I meant by being held to a higher scrutiny. But there is plenty of fall out in the industry and those that were in to get rich quick are going away anyway.

Jeff: It is so nice to have you around again. One of the problems with the topic as I see it is the focus on who is to blame. What does it matter? We can't go back, only forward.

1:29am • #36
8 Featured Posts

Janet,

Absolutely thought provoking!  When the dust has settled...you just may be right.  A lot has been written and said with much more to come. Fear and panic can create irrational actions and behavior......as well as political interference, many kneejerks. Government intervention almost never works and generally exacerbates any problem.

Regretfully, I believe that regardless of the approach a lot more blood will be let before the wound heals.

7:53am • #37
This is one of the best blogs I've read in a long time. And SO in tune with my own beliefs. We Americans can figure anything out if left alone to do it. But, but, but... if the government can help  me get my own two houses sold (that are languishing on the market), that would be cool... JK!
Jennifer Allan
8:39am • #38
1 Featured Post

congratulations on the featured post.

If we try to let congress adjust the mortgage market it will only lead to more and greater problems than we can imagine.  Unfortunately, they don't know the mortgage industry and are not attempting to get educated.  The correction will be an over correction.

In the end this mortgage market correction will lead to a completely different market.  Think how much the market changed and grew from the S&L crisis.

2:14pm • #39
NOV
26
2007
147,372 Points 6 Featured Posts Outside Blog

For the most part I'm pretty libertarian when it comes to the government attempting to fix a problem, especially one as big as the current mortgage and housing crises.  That said, I do think that helping to ease the burden of this crises falls under the "provide for the general welfare" clause in the constitution.

While it is certainly true that some people simply spent beyond their means and were irresponsible, this isn't true for all of the borrowers who applied for these mortgages.  Many people took the necessary steps to fix whatever the problems were that forced them to take a "sub-prime" mortgage only to find out that they can't refinance because the value of their home declined.

Home ownership is a cornerstone in the foundation of our economy.  To do nothing at this point means that not only will "innocent" people be hurt, the economy itself will suffer.  In turn this will hurt people who had absolutely nothing to do with any sub-prime mortgages.

This is turning into a post, so that's what I'm going to make it.  If you're interested, please look for it in the next couple of days.

 

Bob Mitchell

ValueList Real Estate Services, Inc. 

11:15am • #40

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Janet Guilbault California Mortgage Banker/Broker

Walnut Creek, CA

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Address: 3201 Danville Blvd, Suite 195, Alamo, CA, 94507

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