Monday's bond market has opened up slightly with no relevant economic news scheduled for release today and early stock losses. The stock markets are currently in negative territory with the Dow down 46 points and the Nasdaq down 18 points. The bond market is currently up 5/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates slightly.
Tomorrow mornin g kicks off this week's economic news with the release of November's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). The Conference Board will release the CCI at 10:00 AM ET, giving us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If consumer confidence is rising, analysts believe that consumers are more apt to make larger purchases, essentially fueling economic growth. This raises inflation concerns and usually pushes mortgage rates higher. Analysts are expecting a sizable drop from last month's 95.6 reading to somewhere around 91.5. A weaker than expected reading should be good news for mortgage rates, but a stronger than expected reading could push mortgage rates higher tomorrow.
October's Durable Goods Orders will be posted early Wednesday morning. This data helps us measure manufacturing strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items. It is expected to show no change in new orders from September's levels. A decline would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.
Also scheduled for release Wednesday is October's Existing Home Sales data. This report, along with Thursday's New Home Sales data is the least important of this week's data. They give us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but the bond market generally does not rely heavily on their results. Both reports will most likely be ignored due to the importance of other releases scheduled to be posted those days.
The other relevant report Wednesday is the Fed "Beige" Book, which will be released at 2:00 PM ET. The report itself probably will not show many surprises. It details economic activity throughout the U.S. by region. Signs of economic weakness should not come as a surprise to the markets and probably will not have had much of an impact on rates. But, the Fed does rely heavily on this data during their FOMC meetings, so any significant surprises could affect afternoon bond trading and possibly lead to changes in mortgage prici ng Wednesday afternoon.
Overall, I believe that it is going to be an active week for the mortgage market. Tomorrow or Wednesday will likely be the most important day of the week. I still expect to see plenty of movement in rates the remaining days, so please be careful and maintain contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked an interest rate yet.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Please let me know if I can provide loan information for any of your clients. I would be happy to quickly pre-qualify them, provide loan scenarios, or help improve their credit position to obtain a lower interest rate.
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