November 21, 2007

Last Thursday, the Arizona Department of Economic Security released its November employment report, which showed that Arizona hit a record 2,737,500 nonfarm jobs in October.  The unemployment rate in the Phoenix metro area is 3% -- below the statewide average of 3.5% and dramatically lower than the U.S. average of 4.7%.

In an article earlier this week, Inman News columnist Bernice Ross wrote that “There’s no question about the fact that there is bad news in some markets. What irks me is that there is also a lot of good news that is either being buried or is not being reported at all.”

Ross is right, let’s not gloss over some of the difficulties in the Phoenix area market right now.  But let’s also talk about the economy’s undercurrents – like solid employment numbers – that will sustain Arizona’s real estate market in the long run.

It’s true that sales volume is down substantially in Phoenix and the other Valley cities, but prices have held fairly steady.  2007 year-to-date prices were up 2% compared to 2006 in Phoenix, according to the Arizona Real Estate Investors Association (AZREIA).  In the other Valley cities prices were down, about 2-3% - certainly not the crisis some would make it out to be.

And it’s true that foreclosures are high in the Valley.  That’s partly because of investors who went wild speculating on a booming housing market, artificially inflated that market, some got out, and others are left holding mortgages on homes they can’t flip like they had planned.  Investor-owned properties make up a good chunk of foreclosures in the Valley.

But the foreclosure difficulties will pass and the market will re-stabilize, landing somewhere between the height of the boom and where we are now.  And the real estate market in the Valley will continue to grow – homes will continue to be built, bought, and sold, and prices will continue to go up.

Why?  Because people like living here.  Because the economy is strong.  Because it’s sunny here more days than anywhere else – and there’s golf.  Who wouldn’t love to live here?