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Here's the Secret..

By
Real Estate Agent with High Lakes Realty and Property Management

 The so-called media talking about the so-called National Real Estate Market needs to shut up with all the doom and gloom!  I don't know what kind of crystal ball these so-called experts are looking into in order to make the recent rash of negative predictions, but accurate or not, just the saying so is, unfortunately, enough to drive the market in the wrong direction.

The Real Estate Market is in large measure, perception driven, in one direction or another.  It's as simple as this; if you're a buyer out there listening to it all, why in the world would you make the decision to purchase in a market you believe to be in a declining condition?  The answer is, of course, that you wouldn't.  Anyone in their right mind would wait until a point in time where, right or wrong, when they believe the market to have hit bottom or to be finally trending upward.

All the market needs to recover is the belief that it has.  I know that's a tall order in reality, but the simplicity of what can make or break any market is both elegant and fascinating.

I know, I know, I want to throw up as much as the next guy every time every time I get quoted something along the lines of the so-called "Secret" and a so-called "Law of Attraction" which essentially says all will be well if we just think positively.  In the case of the Real Estate Market, that might just be what we need to do - that and a lot of convincing out there that all is well with Real Estate.

Whenever anyone asks "How's the market these days?" we should make it our mission to declare that it's "Looking up!" or something equally or even more positive.

That might make all the difference in the world.  Let's at least give it a try.  That and a letter writing campaign in each of our respective communities for the news media to just shut up with the recent rash of what invariably become self-fulfilling prophesies in the wrong direction.

Who knows, maybe if we do, you'll make me a believer in "The Secret" after all.

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Fred Jaeger
High Lakes Realty and Property Management - La Pine, OR
Real Estate Connection - Central Oregon

Thanks Jo and Alisa... really nice to hear from you again. 

As far as Anon talking about Fundamentals.. I'm finding your point somewhat incoherent so I'm not sure how to respond.

My friend Michael and I, indeed, need to keep our lurid fantasies to ourselves apparently.  I like a featured post but Yikes!  Sorry Heidi and Angelina; we were just kidding.. sort of. 

Alright I admit it, I wasn't kidding, but I'll just shut up myself now.

Nov 28, 2007 08:29 AM
Anonymous
Anonymous

You have made my point exactly.  The more the media spreads the virus of doom, the more the public believes it.  Lets move on already, first it was gas prices and the energy crisis, now it is the mortgage and credit crisis.  Maybe we could try to be crisis free for a while.  Everyone needs to live somewhere, and it really doesn't make much sense to rent and be able to listen through the walls while your neigbor flushes the potty, or walks overhead.  I wonder sometimes if the media is trying to kill the American Dream. 

 

Samantha    Fort Worth, Texas

Nov 28, 2007 08:53 AM
#13
Fred Jaeger
High Lakes Realty and Property Management - La Pine, OR
Real Estate Connection - Central Oregon
Damned-straight Samantha.  What she said for-sure.
Nov 28, 2007 09:00 AM
Vivienne Seaman
RE/MAX Eagle Properties - Drummond Island, MI

 Great Post Fred, food for thought

The national news is a friend to who?  The gloom and Doom bunch.  They make me sick.  Bad mouthing everyone who is trying to earn a living.  No wonder there are so many people popping antidepressants. 

Samantha has a good term for it "Virus of Doom"  no kidding.  Instead of the news always pounding on the American dream of owning a home perhaps they should say, this is a buyers market, Invest, Invest, Invest!  Real estate is still the best investment.  Where else can you get such a return on your investment ?

And your point on Laws of Attraction is right on the money.  Attracting positive results to our endeavors is backed up by persarverance and good old fashioned elbow grease.

 

Oh, yeah, The Secret, a friend just gave it to me and said, listen to this.  The Secret?  see above statement. 

Nov 28, 2007 10:02 AM
Debbie White
Southeast Alaska Real Estate - Juneau, AK
I Sell Alaska!
When will the media figure out that each market should have it's own story instead of borrowing from corporate?  There is no "national real estate market".  The market in Juneau, Alaska has only had a minor correction.  Our default rate on subprime loans is about 1/4 the national average.  I agree.  They need to shut up and find subjects they actually know a little bit about.  Ahah - I see the problem.  Love the comic!
Nov 28, 2007 12:10 PM
Trey Thurmond
BCR Realtors - College Station, TX
College Station , Texas Homes

You know... I think you are already headed that direction.. IE believing.  For some strange reason I was compelled to read your blog tonight. I carry my grateful rock in my pocket and I thank God daily for all my blessings.

I bet by the end of the week something really good happens to you.

Nov 28, 2007 12:16 PM
Joe Hayden Real Estate Team
RE/MAX Properties East - Louisville, KY
Your Louisville Real Estate Experts!

I think the phrase missing from the discussion here is...consumer confidence.

People have to feel safe to spend big bucks and when they are inundated with negativity, they tighten the purse strings.

Nov 28, 2007 12:30 PM
Robert L. Brown
www.mrbrownsellsgr.com - Grand Rapids, MI
Grand Rapids Real Estate Bellabay Realty, West Mic
It just sells papers. They don't have a clue what's going on out there in the market. That's why i don't read them.
Nov 28, 2007 01:09 PM
Joan Whitebook
BHG The Masiello Group - Nashua, NH
Consumer Focused Real Estate Services
I think everyone should just take a break from all the news for at minimum of 30 days!  Just get into the spirit of the holidays and enjoy friends, family and good food --
Nov 28, 2007 01:44 PM
Bob & Carolin Benjamin
Benjamin Realty LLC - Gold Canyon, AZ
East Phoenix Arizona Homes
Agreed, if people would take a break from the doom and gloom news for 30 days or more it might make a difference. Thanks for the post.
Nov 28, 2007 02:09 PM
Fred Jaeger
High Lakes Realty and Property Management - La Pine, OR
Real Estate Connection - Central Oregon

Joan, Bob and Carolin..I love the idea of the 30 day break, especially while directing more energy toward food!

I know what you mean Robert when it comes to selling papers.

Ah yes.. Consumer Confidence.  I love that Joe and wish I'd put it that way.

Thanks Trey for predicting good things coming my way.  If you knew me better, you'd know how good that sounds.

Our market sounds like yours Debbie.. it was somewhat insulated from national trends.

Thanks Vivienne for driving home what I was hoping to slip in between the lines about how a positive attitude isn't always enough.

Nov 28, 2007 05:20 PM
Lane Bailey
Century 21 Results Realty - Suwanee, GA
Realtor & Car Guy

Fred.  The over use of "so-called" was a little annoying...  But, my over use of "..." is too. 

Anyway, there is a "national real estate market" in the same way there is a "stock market".  The  vast majority of money is invested in stocks that can and do move the other way.  The big difference is that in stocks, the investors understand the difference between the Dow 30 and the individual stocks. 

There are fundamentals at play that drive the market, but it is the magnification of those fundamentals that drives public perception.  And the public perception is what drives the market.  

The basic fact remains, that in many market the homes are just simply not affordable for those that are in the market for them.  When that gets back in line, the dip will be gone.  In other markets, when the media gives the "GO" signal, the general public will go out and look for the bargains that the real investors already picked up.   

Nov 29, 2007 01:48 AM
Amy Hunter
Hearth & Home Videos - Sudbury, MA

Fred,  I totally agree with you, and you captured the situation and made your points very well.  While granted, the market is not good it would be nice if the media 1) stopped hitting us over the head with it ALL THE TIME, and 2) stopped wringing their hands, saying who knows when it will end - it could go on and on for another year or more.  

I think that if the press and "pundits" would lighten up some then buyers wouldn't drive prices down by feeling entitled to bargain basement prices, and more buyers would come off the sidelines and look to buy a home.  Personally, I think that we could "bottom out" next Spring. 

Amy Hunter, Hearth & Home Residential Videos    www.rezvid.com

Nov 29, 2007 03:01 AM
Josette Skilling
Keller Williams Capital Properties - Bethesda, MD

I agree that in large part consumer confidence is a fundamental reason for the stagnant market, but can you blame them really?  Who should they really believe?  It's not until they start to look clearly at the data for the local market they are looking to live in that they'll understand how the fundamentals play out for them in that LOCAL market.

When folks ask how's the market I have to think about where they live.  Then I can answer because it truly depends on the zip code.  If I cavalierly say fine when it's a zip that has the most percentage of foreclosures in the county, then I'm in an uphhill battle for getting their home sold should that be their next question.

Some markets here are just fine.  But some are tanked.  How to handle each one is why the folks are calling us to help. 

By the way, anon should read the blogs here.   We get it, believe us we get it that our barriers to entry are not high enough.  But he might want to note the amount of knowledge and information we are willingly sharing with consumers and each other across the nation.  And that information didn't come in a two week course but rather from real life experience and the ability to dig down into the data and see the trends.  He might also note that those of us who take on these challenges are the ones who are succussfully getting clients through the maze because homes are still selling.

Just a thought.

Nov 29, 2007 03:37 AM
John Fariss
Fariss Appraisal Services - Bakersfield, CA
Appraiser - Bakersfield, CA

I've certainly heard in the past that people quit watching the news because of all the doom and gloom presented. But that is exactly what sells the news, so they will continue to "preach" doom and gloom until their ratings drop.

Unfortunately, it has an impact on public perception and the typical buyer. Savvy inverstors know that real estate is locational and will continue to buy. But Michael makes a great point that it's the lending guidelines that are having a huge impact on the markets right now. Many borrowers just no longer qualify, so we've lost a portion of the buyers out there.

Nov 29, 2007 05:21 AM
Fred Jaeger
High Lakes Realty and Property Management - La Pine, OR
Real Estate Connection - Central Oregon

Lane.. I respectfully disagree with you about a so-called (I couldn't resist) National Market.  There is no National Real Estate Market.  "Bubbles" and/or "dips" when they do exist are almost always local because Real Estate is local by its very nature.  The Stock Market is Nationally, perhaps even Internationally driven; Real Estate is not.  Fluctuations in the Real Estate Market are usually slow to occur and caused by variables which are complex and primarily local in origin. 

I will admit that the media tends to affect perceptions and thus the market ultimately; that's the point of the post.  Other than that, local variables such as location, affordability, local economies etc are what drive local markets primarily.

Nov 29, 2007 06:23 AM
Anonymous
Tamra Carrell

Awesome post Fred ! 

As always you really know how to get your point accross in a positive manner : )  I too agree with you.  If we continue to listen to the gloom and doom out there, we are then becoming a part of that machine.  WHEN will it go away.  Are we all not responsible for trying to change the perception that the 'sky is falling.'  If we all, as a nation, and collegues, fought against the machine of the media ?  .....  and imput the positive ..... My, how the nation may be a different place, huh ?   Just a thought.  I am glad you made reference to The Secret .  thanks

Nov 29, 2007 10:46 AM
#28
Anonymous
Deborah Elowson

Fred,

As a new member of ActiveRain, this is my first blog response!

I absolutely agree with you that the Media is in large measure fueling a downward spiral with all its negativity and that we (the real estate/realtor community) need to make a concerted effort to be positive. As I have learned awhile ago, in order to sell newspapers and grab attention, the Media is good at presenting facts (frequently out of context) but not diligent about being accurate.

In my neck of the woods, San Francisco's Peninsula Area (yes, definitely a geographical region comprised of many micro-markets), there continues to be lots of pent up Buyer demand for homes in desirable areas that are in good condition and are priced well. In working with Buyers who do want to invest in their first home or are relocating from other parts of the country, they are amazed at how competitive the situation can be and that multiple offers are still a reality. Why the disconnect? It is everything they are hearing and reading in the news!

Having said this, currently there are more homes on the market to select from in certain towns that traditionally have had a shortage of inventory. And, there definitely seem to be more 'would-be' Buyers who are attending Opens but are holding back out of fear and/or are waiting for the market to "hit rock bottom."  The words we need to keep spreading are: "Now May Be the Time to Buy!" (backed by accurate information such as valuation trends, interest rates relatively low, strong employment, etc.)

I know I'm dreaming, but I just wish I'd wake up tomorrow and see a headline that reads "California Real Estate is a Strong Long Term Investment" or "Reality Check: The Real State of Real Estate is Healthy." But I guess they'd rather keep this their "SECRET."

Nov 29, 2007 01:22 PM
#29
Fred Jaeger
High Lakes Realty and Property Management - La Pine, OR
Real Estate Connection - Central Oregon

Debra's response illustrates the very essence of this post.  Thanks Debra and welcome aboard.

Tamra very kindly made me aware of the whole idea of "The Secret" in the first place, and although I'm obviously a skeptic, she has earned my overall respect time and again, both personally and professionally.

Nov 30, 2007 04:00 AM
Lori Nasshahn
Gilchrist Real Estate Company - La Pine, OR

Hear hear!!Too true.

Thanks for the brutal honesty of "they need to shut up with all the doom and gloom". I find myself yelling that at many an evening news anchorperson...

 

Lori Nasshahn, Gilchrist Real Estate

Dec 11, 2007 08:29 AM