It will not be long before we get more Economic Reports for 2007, and especially on what the interest rates and housing costs will be for the upcoming year. I say prediction because that is what they are, and like most predictions they can be wrong. They are only someone’s guess based on the economic data they have available right now. This data changes constantly, and depending on what happens, these economic indicators can change with a blink of an eye. Are these predictions good educated guesses? Yes they are, but lets just take a quick look at what was predicted were for 2006.
As early as June of 2005 I was getting reports stating that the mortgages rates on a 30 year fixed mortgage would be 7% by January of 2006. This did not happen, in fact my 30 year fixed rate in January of 2006 was 6.125% with no points. The rate did finally hit 7% around June/July of 2006, but then start to come back down again, and today my rate on a 30 year fixed mortgage is 6.25%. This is almost the same rate a year later, and they have been holding at this level for about a month now. The predictions for 2007 will probably be much the same as they were for 2006. The safe bet would be to say that rates are going to go up, but who knows, they could continue to go down as they have been the last several months. If the financial gurus’ predictions could be taken as fact, there income would have several more zeros after it.
So what does this all mean? What it means is that no matter how complete the economic model is for making these predictions, they will always be just that predictions, and predictions can be wrong a good percentage of the time. All it takes is for a couple of unexpected things to occur in the financial world and predictions start to change. What we need to do is to treat these predictions for exactly what they are, guesses and not fact. Unfortunately all too often consumers do look at them as fact, and hold off doing what they really want to do.
This is why when I am talking to a Borrower, and they ask me should they buy know or wait, my answer is always buy now. The best time to buy is always now, because as you can see we really don’t know what the economic conditions are going to be tomorrow. All of the economic data in the world can do is to predict a trend, which could change in a blink of an eye with new data that is being generated every second. So why wait and take a chance on interest rates being higher, and houses costing more. If you can afford it today, then it is today that you should purchase. If you find a house that you want to purchase, at a price that you can afford, then don’t wait, purchase it now. Unless you are buying a house as a short term investment, then it does not matter if the house prices drop, because one thing that we do know with a high degree of certainty is that over the long term the value will go up. In the long term Real Estate is one of the best investments that you can make.
So if I have a Borrower who is ready to buy today, then it is today that I am going to advise them to buy. Today is the only day that we truly know what the rate and house prices are, tomorrow it could be much different. So homebuyers whether it is your first home, or your third home, base your decisions on facts, not guesses that could be completely wrong tomorrow. Base your decision on what the facts are today.
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Info about the author:
George Souto is a Loan Officer who can assist you with all your FHA, CHFA, and Conventional mortgage needs in Connecticut. George resides in Middlesex County which includes Middletown, Middlefield, Durham, Cromwell, Portland, Higganum, Haddam, East Haddam, Chester, Deep River, and Essex. George can be contacted at (860) 573-1308 or gsouto@mccuemortgage.com
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