Craig W. Barrett, Hughesville, REALTOR (r)

Hughesville, MD Real Estate

www.hughesvillehomes.com

 

Josette Skilling's blog on "No, Putting the Text of the Bonus in Bold Doesn't Work" got me thinking about price reductions. I've actually been thinking about price reductions for awhile. I know, who hasn't, but her blog moved me to write. I also saw a term today I had not seen before, reduction-aversion, on Mish's blog. As I read the blog it struck me. The blog is about new home inventory and how various Home Builders are handling price reductions, but the principle is the same. Supply and Demand.

When warranted and generally speaking, the purpose of a price reduction is to generate additional buyer interest and the call-to-action of seeing your listing and ultimately writing a contract. But what if the price reduction doesn't generate the desired result? Do you advise your sellers to cut again and again, and again? You get the point... you're chasing a downward market.

When the price reductions don't work, the obvious question is "Why didn't it work?" Was the price reduction not dramatic enough to impress the potential buyer to make the desired call-to-action? Or were the price reductions never going to work because the buyer was waiting for more? In this scenario, the sellers fear is "leaving money on the table" and the buyers fear is "paying too much". I think both are very reasonable fears, but I believe generous and dramatic price reductions are more effective.

What if the seller decided they were satisfied with the original list price and dismissed your advice of a generous price reduction? Would the sellers reduction-aversion eventually have the desired effect of the call-to-action? I don't think it would. Do you?

 

11 Comments on Reduction-Aversion or Dramatic Price Cuts???

DEC
06
2007
108,750 Points 6 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor

I'm not sure price reductions OR reduction aversion are the definitive answer in a downward market. When few are buying, holding the property (as in take it off market till people are buying), if possible, may be the best answer of all.

I'm not in the market for grape Kool Aid so whether it's on the clearance rack or not is irrelevant to me.  :)

 

9:15pm • #1
4 Featured Posts
Candice - That's an excellent point. Now is not the time for sellers to be "testing the waters". Thanks for the comment.
9:29pm • #2
DEC
07
2007

Taking the home off the market until the market is more active seems like it is in the best interest for the overall market. Less inventory...Less price reductions...more stable home prices.  Good for everyone.  But of course, each seller is selling for a reason, and usually they are selling because they need to move for one reason or another. Taking the home off the market for a while is not an option for them - as if your home isn't "for sale", no one is going to make an offer and there is a 0 chance of selling.

We really don't have any control over that.  Personally, I have dealt with multiple price reductions on listings lately, (and not really "lately" but over the past 6 months) and I haven't seen where the reductions have increased showings of the properties.  So what do you do in that case?  Seller NEEDS to sell.  Price reductions don't seem to increase showings...What next?    It wakes me up at night.

I think the real challenge is how to increase the amount of buyers who could benefit from the inventory available and the interest rates right now, but they just aren't taking advantage of it. 

 How do we stimulate and increase the "buyers" inventory?

Cindy Hartman
7:39am • #4
...okay...I think I should have said..."inventory of BUYERS!"...
Cindy Hartman
7:42am • #5
4 Featured Posts

Michael - "Frozen Market" is a good way to describe what we are all seeing in some places. Yes, good point too many reductions condition a buyer for more, but what's a seller to do? Reduction aversion or pull it off the market. Thanks for the comment.

Cindy - There are many sellers and sellers agents, including myself, that are asking some of the very same questions and have experienced the same downward spiral, but as you pointed out if your home isn't for sale there's a zero chance it'll sell.

What's next if price reductions don't work and the seller has to sell and the price has been reduced to "razor thin margins"? Do you hold your price and risk "cost overrun"? You've made another good point about increasing "inventory of buyers".

Do we shift our business plans from attracting sellers to attracting buyers? Since buyers can find a lot on their own on the internet, I think the key to attracting buyers to your area is becoming the "portal of information". Maybe buyers are out there, but we just haven't found the "right" way to connect with them. Thanks for the comment.

8:49am • #6
108,750 Points 6 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor

The one thing Internet can't offer is representation. Consumers need expert advice and protection in their real estate transaction. Establishing yourself as area expert and building a reputation for excellent buyer representation will keep you, buyers AND SELLERS happy.

11:57am • #7
4 Featured Posts
Candice - You're absolutely right. You rock!
2:56pm • #8
DEC
21
2007

We buyers are not as ignorant as some in the industry would seem to think. This is a seized market, not really a buyer's market. The year-over-year lower sales are the proof of that.

We know better deals are coming. Many of us have the time to wait.Unless the seller is willing to pull their house from the market for a few years, then they may as well capitulate now. Even if prices recover, the time value of money must be figured in. If you wait two years and then get 'your price', you have lost money due to inflation.

This has been the most protracted runup in prices in history. The idea that a slow year and 5-10% correction will be all that is given up is absurd. Get ready for several years of declining prices, as sellers capitulate one by one.

Teaser rate mortgages are gone, the subprime buyer is gone, the Alt-A buyer is severely constrained, food and fuel prices are rising, and the financial sector (where many of the high-paying jobs existed) is taking massive layoffs. Add to this mix the consumer sentiment that is the opposite of 2004, in that now many EXPECT prices to continue down, and you have a self-feeding cycle. The real buyer's market is still on its way.

Real estate booms take several years to build, and several years to clear.

Waiting
12:10am • #9
108,750 Points 6 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor

Interesting. Like many brokers, I'm a buyer/investor too and in my practice I work with mainly investors.  So time value of $$ is definitely a consideration.

The 'held' property could be rented. If appreciation's not there, how about cash flow and/or depreciation?  Not all sellers need to cave . . . only the ones who didn't buy smart in the first place.  "You make your money when you buy, not when you sell."

ALL depends on the particular market. Prices aren't dropping everywhere and in some, they are rising. Charlotte, Seattle, Portland, New Orleans are all showing up in the news as 'bottom hit, appreciating again'.

I don't have a crystal ball so I don't know if there is a 'real buyer's market' on the way. I can only confine my opinions to my service area and 3-6 month time frames which are realistic to most appraisers and therefore to me. YMMV.

Perhaps Michael will chime in with an appraiser's opinion. Any secret spots of investor interest in the City of Angels?

(Will he tell if he knows? LOL)

 

9:30am • #10
4 Featured Posts

Waiting - Thank you for the comment. No one said buyers were ignorant. If it makes sense for you to wait, then wait. I understand your position of capitulation, but if warranted, the reduction in price must be dramatic enough for any buyer to take notice.

Local markets are effected differently as the lending institutions work through their issues. However, in my market the subprime buyer is not gone, the guidelines have changed. It costs more to get a loan and more money is required. ALT-A buyer is constrained, I agree, but again guidelines have changed, it costs more to get a loan and more money is required. Lenn Harley has an excellent blog on how the coming changes will effect borrowers.

We don't have a lot of financial sector jobs in my area, so it's not an issue here. Unemployment is low and some prices have flattened, but it depends on the product and location. Katie Wethman had an interesting blog about pricing correctly. She also mentioned micro-markets. Pricing trends are local and so much so, that one neighborhood may be less expensive than another.

Here's another blog on pricing written by Renee Burrows. She wrote it for the Las Vegas market. but the concept can be applied to other markets. Look at the different competing factors effecting pricing.

What goes up, must come down and Real Estate is no more shielded from cyclical dynamics than any other market. I read an blog written by my friend Mike from Savannah. He said it best when he said "I have to wade through all this talk to get to the objective reality. That's my job. I can’t be tossed about by hyperbole, one way or the other."

That particular blog is about Doomer or Cheerleader and who is right. He went on to say, "Well, as in most cases of controversy, there is right and wrong on both sides. In some parts of the country, now is not the smartest time to buy, because prices continue to fall. In other parts of the country prices have stabilized and now seems to be a good time to take advantage of a lull in rising prices."

Price is on every buyer and sellers mind, always has been, always will be. I advise clients with local data. That data probably doesn't support what's happening in your part of the country and vice versa. I will continue to follow my market trends, read blogs of other professionals around the Country, look at the data objectively and advise accordingly.

 

 

 

4:39pm • #11
4 Featured Posts

Candice - Good point, not all sellers need to cave-in, only the ones that didn't buy smart. You also made a good point when you said the property could be rented for either positive cash-flow or depreciation, hold and sell. It depends on the market.

Maybe Michael will chime in with an appraisers opinion.

5:05pm • #12

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Craig W. Barrett - Hughesville MD Real Estate

Hughesville, MD

More about me…

RE/MAX 100

Address: 16475 Steeplechase Court, Hughesville, MD, 20637

Office Phone: (301) 843-5100

Cell Phone: (301) 751-6094

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