Preliminary numbers from the MLS this morning show that total sales in Ada County for November fell back again to roughly September's levels. There were only 388 closed sales recorded for the month, which is a new low, and fewer than I had expected. The bright spot in the report is that inventory continues to fall, as more homes are sold or simply taken off the market. Right now there are 4275 Single Family homes listed in Ada County, down from 4604 in October, and well off the summer high which was over 5100 homes! And as the market slows down for the holidays, the pending number is slowing down as well. Earlier this week it was 468, which is barely 20 fewer than a month ago.
One of the positive things we can say about our Boise area market is that the new construction situation is much healthier here than the rest of the Nation as an average. We all know about the region's low unemployment (2.7% compared to the national average at 4.7%), and strong population and job growth. The construction of new homes during the 2005 boom was about 56 units per 100 new residents. Sounds like a lot, but the national average was 75 per 100. Currently, we're probably on pace for only 28 per 100 new residents, while the national average is still 48. So it appears that we did not overbuild to the degree seen in other areas of the country, and we're underbuilding now at a rate below the national average. New construction inventory is being steadily absorbed. What this means is that with Boise's strong economic outlook, and positive population growth, our Treasure Valley region's housing market should rebound much sooner than much of the rest of the Nation.
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