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Is a clear sky blue?

Sitting down this morning getting my Fox News fix, I noticed a release by the NAR that has me re-thinking a position I have taken...

Here is the link to the NAR news release. To summarize, the position the NAR takes is that housing will start to pick up in 2008. Existing home sales will rebound, although new homes will lag for another year.

Well, I've been saying this for a few months (go back and look at my Gwinnett Market Reports if you don't believe me). And so, when the NAR says the same think, I need to re-assess my position.

Why, you ask?

Because the NAR started calling the bottom of the market and the rebound before the decline was in full swing. And that really ticks me off. I don't have a problem with putting a good spin on things. We all do it, and sometimes we just need to in order to remind people about the other side of the coin. Whether it is a Buyer's Market or a Seller's Market, it is a crappy market for half of the people in a transaction...

But, it's one thing to put your best foot forward, and quite another to say that everything is always perfect. I run numbers for my market... and I make predictions based on those numbers. When I am wrong, I acknowledge it, and when the news just sucks, I say it. I don't try to speak out of both sides of my mouth just to make sure that I'm covered.

Right now, if the NAR announced that skies were blue, I'd run outside to check.

Keep in mind that I am not only a member of my association in order to have access to the MLS (we don't have to be), but rather, I am currently active in the association (until tomorrow's meeting, I am the chairman of the RPAC committee). No, I'm not being deposed... my tenure is coming to a scheduled end.

So, what do we do about it?

Of the 33.548 real estate agents on A/R... as of a moment ago... I'd bet that the vast majority are members of the NAR. I know that the majority are ticked at the NAR over one thing or another. But, I would bet there are about 50 that are actually active in their local association. I bet half don't even know who is President of their local association, much less the state association.

So, get involved. Make your voice heard [I have NO idea this post was going this way].

And, when the NAR issues these reports, grab some salt, and run your own numbers.

Posted by Lane Bailey - REALTOR & Car Guy on 12/10/2007 03:07 PM

Comments (9)

active rain, business of real estate, honesty, rpac, news, market report, media

This post has been included in Georgia Information

9 Comments on Is a clear sky blue?

I think the sky is definitely blue but I like you do not believe everything I hear from NAR or the press. We all have to study our own area's statistics.

12/10/2007 03:14 PM

by Linda Tremblay, Bucks County Real Estate (Long & Foster Real Estate, Inc, PA License #AB065488)

We don't pay much attention to NAR press releases, other than to combat them locally. Like you say, they frequently are different than our market reality.

No matter what, the public needs real news that is accurate. They don't need interpretation, spin or something they know that's different than what they are seeing. So, it's not just NAR, but it's our area news, local boards and other agents who need to understand what helps the public, and what doesn't.

cheers

12/10/2007 03:15 PM

by Gary Bolen (CRS) Lake Tahoe Real Estate Information (Dickson Realty - South Lake Tahoe)

<laughs> I completely agree with you. Trust but verify. AWESOME post.

Kae Davis, car girl ;-)

www.cbmove.com/Kae.Davis ~ www.playintraffic.wordpress.com

12/10/2007 03:17 PM

by Kae Davis (Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage)

I do not pay attention to any thing that the press says! They have such a clever way to spindle, fold, mutilate and massage words so well that you my be THINKING that your are reading the sky is blue, but in reality, they are saying the sky is purple.

12/10/2007 03:17 PM

by Michael Thornton - Nashville, TN area Home Inspector (Complete Home Inspections, Inc.)

Its' easy. Look at your MLS stats and see if they are going up or down. Sometimes I like to be the first to paint the color of the sky. I am usually wrong but that's ok.

12/10/2007 04:17 PM

by Gene Allen Realtor Hampton Roads Real Estate (Resh Realty Group)

I dont believe a ting that NAR says, and if thay take a position on any issue I almost always disagree. I agree with you though the way to fix it is to get involved.

12/10/2007 04:17 PM

by Ron Parise (LocateHomes.com)

Lane:

I'm really thinking 2nd quarter 2009 with a very heavy push by year end. Just ride the wave. Keep your balance and don't wipe out!

12/10/2007 08:24 PM

by Jessica Horton (Brio Realty)

You are right you can not complain unless you become involved. I have enjoyed over 20 years of activities ant the Local State and National and although I don't always agree I try to contribute. Thanks for the post and have a Happy Holiday.

12/10/2007 09:56 PM

by Terry Westbrook ~ Realtor(R) Grand Rapids Mi Ada/Cascade Real Estate (Five Star Real Estate, LLC Grand Rapids , MI)

Linda - More often than not, the sky is cyan... but I digress... As Kae said, Trust, but verify. But I don't think that even trust is a good idea. Go straight to verify.

Gary - I do think most people need interpretation. But, they need an accurate and honest interpretation, not a pie in the sky spin of the latest numbers.

Kae - Like I said to Linda... not so much trust. Much verify. Jack needs a few less keywords... ;^ )

Michael - I try to pay as much attention as possible. I know that my clients are watching, and I have to be ready for the questions they will ask.

Gene - Even if one is the last to look at the numbers, one can still be wrong. Of course, not looking at all decreases the chance of being right.

Ron - I don't always disagree with the NAR, but when they say something that I've been thinking it does make me rethink my position...

Jessica - Sounds like the NAR "New Homes" prognostication. I think you are 9 months behind me, but I guess we'll see... I want to see a bunch of people wipe out. It's fun.

Terry - It would scare me if everyone at the local, state and national levels agreed. But, more people that are unhappy need to be involved. It won't change if they just walk away silently.

12/11/2007 09:16 AM

by Lane Bailey - REALTOR & Car Guy (Diamond Dwellings Realty)

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