Empirical data or gut feeling? Which do you rely on the most?

Terrific thought process.  I think many of us rely on a gut feeling on where we can price the home within the market range of the data.   We need the data to show the clients though.  I think many of them might be a bit doubtful if we walk in with  and say I have a feeling this home may sell for this and that :).  Great post!

Good morning Richard,

Empirical data is important but nothing is better than knowing the competition and what is currently happening in the market place. All real estate is local even among subdivisions in a given city. You are right on "Blind Data" is not seen the same way as someone who really knows the market place!

I am a bit analytical so I am always happy when my gut instinct is validated. Maybe it is not my gut feeling just the fact that I know my market so well.

I think I would be closer to 60/40, but, Richard, I certainly agree with your premise.

Data without experience to interpret and to understand intangibles is just data.

Richard - I think the good ole gut feeling comes with experience, years of experience and as you said thousands of houses. 

I'm with you completely on this.  My gut is almost never wrong.  The hard part is convincing the client that the empirical data is a good starting place but it can't always get into the intangibles that an experienced agent just knows.

Numbers are just a starting point.  The human element needs to come into play also as for as needs and what the people have done with the property

Richard, I'm with you on this. 75 - 80% gut feeling and 25 - 30% data.

What a great question. I tend to go with my gut once I get in the house. There's no way you can base price simply on the data -- unfortunately not all sellers "get that."

Richard, Definitely a combo, but I'm heavier on the data.  Bill

If I'm working in the area I live, I can go on my gut because I'm in these homes all the time.  If I head east I need to get a handle on the empirical data in order to hone that gut.

Richard:  In my market we don't have many traditional sub-divisions.  CMA is a yard stick not a given.  I do a CMA to have the data.  Like you I use my gut when I see the house.  The CMA either goes up or down depending on the factors I view.

I agree with you, 80% gut feel and 20% data.  I'll run a CMA when I'm back at the office but my impression of the home and knowledge of the market usually get me within 5% of what the CMA says (if not less).

I think the empirical data can give an indication of the range of pricing that may be appropriate - but I totally agree that those gut feelings tell even more about where in the range - or if there is a reason why outside of the range altogether is the place to be.