Special offer

Housing Values and Inventory are determined by Big Banks and the Federal Government

By
Mortgage and Lending with Abbey Mortgage & Investments, Inc.

Chapter 5: Big Banks and the Government are Broke

 

Face it, the Federal Government has effectively nationalized the housing finance industry. This is true for new loans and for how FNMA, FHLMC and FHA are liquidating their foreclosures and negotiating short sales. The government has acted to make obtaining a mortgage much more difficult, and is holding enormous numbers of Colorado and Denver homes, in particular, in inventory, waiting to sell them at better prices – they hope – in the future. If the big banks were to write down the value of their houses and mortgages to prices at which they can really sell them, they would be bankrupt (so what, they got us into this mess!). If the Federal government were to sell all the houses held in their three main mortgage entities cited above, the already enormous deficit would probably go up by 10% to 15% - immediately!

 

If Cartels are Bad, What’s so good about Big Banks’ and the Federal Government’s Housing Cartel?

 

So, rather than taking their medicine and selling the properties rapidly, as was done during the Savings and Loan crisis about 20 years ago, the current plan by big banks and the Federal Government is to judiciously mete out properties onto the market in an attempt to control housing prices by manipulating the supply of homes on the market, to control prices and minimize their losses. During the last housing crisis, housing prices dropped for several years, but housing and home values came back really strongly in the 1990’s and turned out to be good for everyone. The pain was short lived and strong price appreciation ensued. Today, in Denver – Colorado and Nationwide, the market is moving in slow motion and all the analysts and economists I have read see years of almost flat home values with very little appreciation and anemic new home sales, too.

 

In Denver, with just over 30% of all home sales being short sales or bank liquidations, the big banks and the federal government control housing the same way the Saudis and OPEC influence oil prices– it’s a cartel!

 

So, the government controls virtually all residential mortgage lending and the big banks and the federal government together control housing prices due to a huge share of sales in the market. Is this really America?

 

Yep, it still is. As a private lender, we help our borrowers with deals that they have worked really hard to negotiate with the Cartel, without paying too much!

 

Check out my other Blog Posts and Free Reports on my Web site for additional ideas about the market. Read more tomorrow on this fascinating subject!

Brian Sharkey
SharkeyRE LLC - Singer Island, FL
SharkeyRE

Robert you are right on, are area was hit hard and every third house is vacant.  The supply is low and prices are going up.  How do we put a positive spin on it?

Mar 14, 2012 10:25 AM
John Pusa
Glendale, CA

Robert - Thank you for sharing detailed quality information on housing values and inventory determined by big banks an the Federal Government.

Mar 14, 2012 10:55 AM
Jordon Wheeler
The Jordon Wheeler Group - Fairburn, GA
J W Group Real Estate Sales and Service

Robert,

I wrote a similar post about the inventory levels here in parts of metro Atlanta and the number of foreclosure notices I have observed on front doors - a lot more than what the inventory is showing.  To Brian, the positive spin is 'it's a still a great time to buy and hurry because the inventory is low and you're competing with many other buyers.  Make your best offer even if you have to go above the asking price to win the property.'  Keep in mind it is SPIN - LOL!  Best of success to you Robert this year!

Mar 14, 2012 03:18 PM
Lloyd Binen
Certified Realty Services - Saratoga, CA
Silicon Valley Realtor since 1976; 408-373-4411

The federal government would love to be out the the mortgage finance business.  They were forced into it. Had  the feds not put FNMA and FHLMC into conservatorship the housing market would have become a cash-only market, with prices collapsing.  Remember, everyone stopped buying mortgage-backed securities?  There was no private housing credit.

Out here lenders are selling their REOs as quickly as they're getting them. 

Mar 14, 2012 03:46 PM
George Bennett
Inactive - Port Orford, OR
Inactive Principal Broker, GRI

Robert,

I agree that the big banks would be insolvent if they carried real estata assets at their current market value instead of the value of the note or mortgage. In my opinion, the actions of Feddie, Fannie, & FHA cartel are orchestrated to shore up the too big to fail banks. The actions of the Federal Reserve have devalued our dollars provided banks access to money at rates below 0 percent when adjusted for inflation.

Mar 14, 2012 05:17 PM
George Fanucci
CoreFact.com - Los Altos, CA
Internet - Technology - Business - Solutions
Congrats on the feature .. I am going back to find and read your whole series.
Mar 14, 2012 07:46 PM
Lenn Harley
Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Homes and Real Estate - Leesburg, VA
Real Estate Broker - Virginia & Maryland

When a bank is insolvent, their government cronies underwrite their debt.

When a citizen is insolvent, they are left penniless and homeless and living paycheck to paycheck. 

Mar 14, 2012 08:24 PM
Richie Alan Naggar
people first...then business Ran Right Realty - Riverside, CA
agent & author

Banks, businesses, LLC's and corps declare bankruptcy and everyone claims its a good strategic move. People, as in  WE THE PEOPLE who try this maneuver are told they are deadbeats, immoral and aren't fit to live...Just who is setting these standards and why remains interesting as I watch government hypocrisy

Mar 14, 2012 10:37 PM
Phil & Celeste Pafford
PaffordHomes.com, Corona CA - Corona, CA
Corona Short Sale Broker

"...ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country."

 

I wonder if anyone in the Federal Housing Admin has ever had a "real" job.  

 

Real job defined as... working in the Private Sector where you must "create" wealth, and your performance matters!

 

I continue to tell everyone who asks when will the market stabilize... well, I don' t have a crystal ball, but we will never get out of this mess until all the Gov Programs (we pay for) are OVER, and the uncertainty is replaced by long term free market principles we rely upon.

 

Free Market as defined as... If you bet the farm and lose, then you just lost the farm!

 

If we do not Perform for our clients, then they have the ability to "fire" us as brokers.  No boo hoo'ing over this principle, this is one of many concepts that make us work hard each and every day, striving to improve our services and commitment to our clients.  Competition is GOOD!  Common Sense Regulated Capitalism is GOOD! (notice the common sense - too bad we can't agree on what Common Sense is...).

 

Once we get back to market driven principles in Real Estate, we will see stability rushing back in!  ;-)

Mar 14, 2012 10:51 PM
Michelle Francis
Tim Francis Realty LLC - Atlanta, GA
Realtor, Buckhead Atlanta Homes for Sale & Lease

Robert, 

It truly is scary as h e double hockey sticks!!!!  I just had a friend tell me there are no longer short sales or foreclosures in her area.  She was completely convinced of this.  So, not true!  

I agree it's going to be a long housing decade.  I want the government out of this!

All the best, Michelle

Mar 14, 2012 10:52 PM
Edward Gilmartin
CRE - Boston, MA

In the Boston  Market there are very few bank owned properties and prices are rebounding.   Not sure why some areas have a lot of bank owned properties....mostly Florida, Georgia, and the South West. Have a feeling some undocumented immigrants just left their homes and went home and disappeard with a new identity.

Mar 15, 2012 12:35 AM
Pamela Seley
West Coast Realty Division - Murrieta, CA
Residential Real Estate Agent serving SW RivCo CA

Never truer words were spoken. You are brave to call it like it is--the housing industry is a cartel. It's despicable what's been done to American homeowners and taxpayers. The government has every intention of limiting property rights. We are already seeing that here in Riverside County California by Fannie Mae homes being sold "in bulk." It turns my stomach.

Mar 15, 2012 02:50 AM
Robert Kearney
Abbey Mortgage & Investments, Inc. - Denver, CO

A few quick thoughts:

Lloyd in Silicon Valley: You said, "Had  the feds not put FNMA and FHLMC into conservatorship the housing market would have become a cash-only market."

OH ye of little faith. I respectfully disagree. Markets solve problems. They bring resources to where they are valued and deliver wealth to those willing to take risks. To believe that without the government's assistance the mortgage industry would not exist simply denies that capital will flow to where it is valued. Many people are like you and believe that because the government is running the show, only the government can do it. The Feds are disrupting the recovery with their origination and foreclosure/asset management policies. Plus, the new regulatory burdens are simply CRAZY and foolishly onerous on all parties. That's my take.

Edward in Boston: You are very observant! According to CoreLogic, only 11.7% of December sales were "distressed sales" in MA.  But keep in mind that 15.6% of homeowners suffer negative equity and 5.7% of homes with mortgages are 90+ days delinquent through foreclosure. The Cartel's interest in keeping prices up is present in MA, too!

Thanks to all of your for your thoughtful comments. I don't claim all the answers, but I try to anchor my opinions in facts!

 

Mar 15, 2012 04:33 AM
Lloyd Binen
Certified Realty Services - Saratoga, CA
Silicon Valley Realtor since 1976; 408-373-4411

Over the long haul, I'm sure your comment to me is correct.  But it's not correct for the non-long haul.  Memories are short; there was no private mortgage financing, and none in sight, when the market burst.

Mar 15, 2012 04:51 AM
Sharon Alters
Coldwell Banker Vanguard Realty - 904-673-2308 - Fleming Island, FL
Realtor - Homes for Sale Fleming Island FL

Robert, I note that you live in Colorado - not one of the top 5 states for foreclosures. Many foreclosures were held off the market in the last year due to the robo-signing debacle. Now those homes are coming on the market as they clear the courts. I too have read about the 'shadow inventory' but I think that it was the houses that were not able to come on the market. Now they are coming on the market.

Sharon

Mar 15, 2012 11:46 AM