REAL ESTATE NEWS IS TELLING ONLY HALF THE REAL STORY ABOUT THE MARKET

I just ran our numbers in Steamboat Springs, CO. There are 69 SFH for sale between $495,000-$15,000,000.

Only 4 of them are below $750,000, and 21 are below $1,000,000.  Our absorption rate based on October sales is less than 3 months (in the under-a-million price point).  That's partly the reason why our market is still going strong. 

Send your investor clients to Steamboat and I'll send you a referral fee!

Lenn  -- Perfect point on what is real price and what is real information. By the way, talking about pricing, how can stats consider numerous "seller's concessions" or "down payment assistance" or any other "give backs" which got customed to be included in sales price? I believe, in 2002 and even in 2003 we did not experience as many of these give backs as later. However, it is not real problem in the areas like yours where prices increased dramatically. It is more significant for more moderately priced regions like Cleveland.

I like your idea of comparing sales volume and pricing year-by-year. The problem is - here in Cleveland sales volume vary from month to month and may differ significantly. Because of this it is not accurate to compare November to November data for our area. Maybe in your place sales volume is more steady. What about your numbers for 11 months? Are they similar to monthly data?

Lenn, I call it "do you want a house or do you want to negotiate yourself out of a house"  I even have talked with them about this in just those terms and still it's more important to get a deal than to get a house.  It's the same fear for sellers to "lose" money by not making a $300,000 profit.  They are all so fearful of leaving money on the table that they end up with nothing.

If it weren't happening to others as well I'd think something was just wrong with me. Aaaaaaghhhhhhh.

I have this on my list to write about...

thank you for sharing important facts. Happy holidays.

Media generalizations need to be broken just as Lenn has done here.  Not only just for sales and inventory but foreclosures as well.  If you listen to the national and even local (state-wide) media they are reporting national or state-wide averages.  But they need to be looking even more locally by county.  The media is not going to take that kind of time, so it is in our (and our Client's) best interests to invest the time.

Yes, there are counties in MA that are struggling with very high foreclosure rates and they appear to be centered around more industrial/urban areas.  While other, more outlying areas are not impacted as much and the "deals" everyone is looking for just aren't there.  If you're looking for a great deal on a triple-decker in Lowell you'll probably find one.  But if you want to buy a vacation-spot waterfront at 50% off, good luck with that!

The laws of supply and demand being what they are...it would seem to me that if demand is down, that prices will follow?  That is until we get the credit markets fixed, then I think that demand will rise again.

Bob Mitchell

ValueList Real Estate Services, Inc. 

Sales volume is very important and I like the way you put it " Buyers are telling us something with their feet not their checkbook"  Very Smart!  I'm going back to check my reports.

Lenn,

I came late to this post, I was going to say well done! Then I started reading the comments. How dare you try to confuse the readers with facts in the face of common knowledge!

Cold facts simply don't out way personal annotatal evidence in the 30 second sound byte news madia. So what if that house you bought in 2002 for $491,332 is now only worth $$709,542! You lost money because if you'd sold in 2005 it was worth $748,007! Of course you didn't sell you wanted to live in your own home, everyone has to live somewhere. Most want to maintain the style to wich they have become accustom.

I'm not forgetting those people that bought in 2005, they do have a problem, if they really have to sell. Being up side down in a loan isn't good, but so many volinteer for it when they buy a car, not to mention those cash back programs, real estate unlike a car will recover. But, all the interviews with foreclosure "victims" fail to mention that they stopped making the payments. The interviewers blame all those sub-prime loans, conveniently forgetting that the overwhelming majority have been our countries biggest housing success since the VA loans after WW II! Not to mention that 30% of the foreclosures are on Prime, conforming loans!

Don't you know, home ownership comes with risk and should be discourage in favor of government controlled public housing!

Please, for give me, all I wanted to say was well said!

Bill

Lenn,

Please! Don't let the gray hair fool you. I'm not old, just overly dilapidated.

Bill