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I LOVE being Wrong.... on rare occasion

By
Mortgage and Lending with US Mortgages - David Shamansky NMLS#392126

I LOVE being Wrong... on rare occasion

OK markets are about as easy to predict right now as which star you are looking at in the sky (not the obvious ones like North, Orion Belt, Big Dipper etc) the masses of dots are ... which ones? Exactly!

Market OVER-reacted to decent data but NOTHING that would warrant a 125bps sell off. Sure its nice to see unemployment numbers getting close to 350k but seriously 350k!?!?! We need to get BELOW 200k for years to really make a significant impact but I admit any positive news is good and likely to cause a rally of some sort but this one was WAY over the top.

With that said and the reports that hit on Thursday for PPI numbers and Empire Manu were a touch better than anticipated and it caused a large gap down open pushing the FNMA 3.5 under 102 for the first time since last Sept/Oct.

Were we poised for a free fall and possibly hit 101? That is what it appeared to be set up for, lets get a strong equities rally and make everyone feel good about things turning around. Well that's a great thought and goal but it needs to be based on REAL numbers that warrant that and a feeling or slight sign of improvement is not that.

So with all that said what is my title I LOVE being wrong, on rare occasion and am very glad that I was wrong on this call. The market held at 102, which was good even though it tried to, and did, twice but just barely. The markets since have come back to earth and the markets have slowly corrected with the FNMA 3.5 coupon closing today at 102.406. Still over 85bps lower than recent trading opened on Monday but a far cry from the 101.5 are I though we are destined for.

I like being right, I pride myself on getting the majority of my calls being accurate but in this case I am SO HAPPY I was wrong!

Maybe we get a little longer to enjoy these historic low rates but if this isn't a rude wake up call what is ACT NOW while opportunity exists!

 us mortgages colorado premier lender

 

Posted by

araward

Colorado 1st Time buyers, if you are ready to stop renting, get the many benefits from home ownership, or maybe your a current homeowner looking to move up or maybe looking into what it takes to become an investor in this incredible market, that WILL create millionaires, and you are looking for a strategy, answers and direction, please feel free to call or email me. My 22yrs in mortgage lending and 30+ years in finance gives me an in depth knowledge, critical to helping others and making their dreams go from dream to reality!

David Shamansky
"Positive reinforcer, promoter, success coach, entrepreneur, team builder, wealth builder, blessed individual, business leader and professional lender"

US Mortgages
6855 S Havana St Ste 520
Centennial CO 80112
720-524-8020
NMLS#392126
Equal Housing Lender

*photos used may come from my personal pictures or www.freedigitalphotos.net

 

Comments (4)

Kathy Sheehan
Bay Equity, LLC 770-634-4021 - Atlanta, GA
Senior Loan Officer

it's just another day in the life of the mortgage industry is in its?

Mar 16, 2012 09:00 PM
Ron Cooks
The Real Estate Marketplace - Killeen, TX
Texas Real Estate, Ft Hood/Killeen Homes for Sale

Wrong....on rare occasion??? I apologize, looking at your profile pic I assumed you were married - which can't be the case, because according to my wife WE'RE wrong more times than not...LOL!!!

Thanks for the info, good post!

 

Mar 16, 2012 09:21 PM
David Shamansky
US Mortgages - David Shamansky - Highlands Ranch, CO
Creative, Aggressive & 560 FICO - OK, Colorado Mtg

Kathy - LOL oh yeah filled with love joy and predictability

Ron - Now you know thats right!!!

 

Mar 17, 2012 10:29 AM
John McCormack, CRS
Albuquerque Homes Realty - Albuquerque, NM
Honesty, Integrity, Results, Experienced. HIRE Me!
Sham Man- I'll stick to being the Realtor and let you deal with being the numer guy any day my man:)
Mar 17, 2012 01:32 PM