Setting The Bar - Another Look Back at 2005
By John Occhi, Hemet REALTOR
Yesterday I described in detail how I pulled together the numbers I am analyzing - which is in essence a look at all of the listings that Expired from the Hemet MLS in the year 2005. The reason for 2005 is all of the data will not be in for 2006 until about the end of next week, at which time I plan on comparing the numbers from 2005 to 2006.
The data that I am looking at is for Hemet only, although I do plan on compiling similar facts about San Jacinto, the other community in the area where I conduct my business and live. I have broken the data down to each of the three zip codes in Hemet: 92443, 92544 & 92454. Again, there is more data and a clearer breakdown on the differences between the three zip codes in yesterday's blog post.
The first number I looked at today is the commission that was offered. I plan on looking to see how it compares to the commission that was actually paid for the listings that sold and see if there is a correlation. Remember, this data is strictly EXPIRED Listings. I found that all three zip codes offered a very similar commission. Zip code 92543 offered 2.7089%; 92544 offered 2.71631% and 92544 offered 2.7442%
I also wanted to know how many of the homes were owner occupied, while they were being marketed and how many were vacant.
Starting with zip code 92543, I found the following results, based on 73 homes that expired in 2005:
- Owner Occupied: 46 homes or 63.01%
- Tenant Occupied: 6 homes or 8.21%
- Vacant: 21 homes or 28.76%
In Zip Code 92544, there were a total of 151 listings that expired in 2005 that were considered for this study. Of those we found:
- Owner Occupied: 104 homes or 68.87%
- Tenant Occupied: 8 homes or 5.29%
- Vacant: 39 homes or 25.82%
Finally, in zip code 92545, 128 properties expired from the MLS in they year 2005 and were considered for this study. Our results indicate:
- Owner Occupied: 87 homes or 67.96%
- Tenant Occupied: 11 homes or 8.59%
- Vacant: 30 homes or 23.44%
Since I believe that knowledge is power, I am looking for the most obscure details I can find, in understanding the market, so that I can better myself and show the sellers that I do have control of the market and what it can do for them. The next look at the numbers is such a useful and yet overlooked fact - one that I exploit every chance I get - the number of photos on the MLS. Bear in mind, our MLS allows us to put 20 photos up with each listing. I have yet to figure out why this is not mandatory in every brokers office in town - but hey, this is what makes me better, right? - Zip Code 92543: Average of 3.03 Photos per EXPIRED Listing
- Zip Code 92544: Average of 5.94 Photos per EXPIRED Listing
- Zip Code 92545: Average of 4.96 Photos per EXPIRED Listing
I have to bear in mind that some agents actually strip a listing of all data that they can, once it expires, so as to not give any advantage to their competition after the fact - I just don't know why. Also, we must remember this was 2005 and my guess is a lot more agents have become more comfortable with digital photography and the new technologies since then. It will be interesting to see how this particular number shapes up, especially when I compare it to the actives. I know I just did a CMA on a very narrowly defined neighborhood and the average was 8.5 pictures currently being displayed.
There is no doubt that many aspects of the market are changing. In the older established areas of Hemet, most of us enjoy very low taxes. Myself, I pay only 1.03% in Valle Vista.1.25 to 1.5% is common for homes in the city limits. Newer homes are typically paying 2%, with their Mello-Roos. So to get a feel for what is happening with Mello Roos, I looked to see how many homes in each zip code are being charged with this new form of property tax. The results do not surprise me at all:
- Zip Code 92543: 1 Home out of 73 Expireds pays Mello-Roos (1.36%)
- Zip Code 92544: 2 Home out of 151 Expireds pays Mello-Roos (1.32%)
- Zip Code 92545: 9 Home out of 128 Expireds pays Mello-Roos (7.03%)
I have just recently decided that I will no longer work with sellers who will not allow me to put a lock box on their home, or as a compromise at least allow me my own key. I just don't think it's worth the hassle. So next, I looked to see how many EXPIRED listings went through the marketing process and did not allow buyers to tour at the convenience of the buyers (I just don't get it):
- Zip Code 92543: 12 Home out of 73 Expireds pays Mello-Roos (16.43%)
- Zip Code 92544: 33 Home out of 151 Expireds pays Mello-Roos (21.85%)
- Zip Code 92545: 17 Home out of 128 Expireds pays Mello-Roos (13.28%)
The last thing I thought I would look at, with an interest of trying to fully understand the market - not that I think this is significant as to why a home sells or doesn't sell - but it's one of those worthless facts I like to keep in my arsenal of worthless information; I am looking to see how many levels the homes is.
- Zip Code 92543: 67 Home out of 73 Expireds are single Story (91.78%)
- Zip Code 92544: 128 Home out of 151 Expireds are Single Story (84.76%)
- Zip Code 92545: 92 Home out of 128 Expireds are Single Story (71.87%)
Well, I hope this helps you start to understand our Hemet Real Estate market. Bear in mind, these calculations are all based on data that was generated for the year 2005. Once the final data is available for 2006, we will do a comparison of these and other statistical demographics that will help show exactly where the market is today. It is then my intention to publish a similar report each month, so that I can continue to track the market and help my clients make the right offer and for those selling, help them set the right price so their homes will sell in the least possible time, for the highest possible price with the least inconvenience to them.
Until next time, Have a Blessed Day,
John Occhi, Hemet REALTOR
http://www.johnocchi.com/
Comments (0)Subscribe to CommentsComment