A Funny World (12): Action with Result or Inaction to Nothing?

A Funny World (11): Housing Price Down Or NOT?

4 days ago, Warren Buffett attended Hillary's presidential fund-raiser party in San Francisco.  They made some very funny statements that gave me a lot of laugh all day long.  But here I will share you guys just one argument. 

When Warren talked about "US dollar", he said: "The problem is at some point either foreign investors will stop financing our consumption, or our future generation will be burdened with a debt and have to work some X hours towards servicing the debt of the earlier generation. But the present over-consumption is unsustainable." 

I didn't realize that we have over-consumed too much to have two pennies to spare with me when I asked in the above article.  Are we American people so broke to a point of such an unsustainable dilemma?   If not, how come nobody be kind to give me two pennies?   Even we are a "penny society", it still really surprises me.

Well, so many funny ideas out of Warren, particularly one out of Hillary, give me a strange but funny feeling.  But I really don't want to mention them here.   They are VIP who attract everyone's attention when they speak, not me a VSP.  So no point to argue with.  

But I felt so uneasy not to allow my farting out.  What can I do about it?  Gee, at least I am a free "me" who have control over myself.   I decided to do something that Warren has made the world look up to him and he has been so proud of himself.  

In addition to my funny response to their childish talks, my feelings are so mixed.  I am a naturalist who don't force himself after money so much.  Back in early 2005, I foresaw the housing bubble on the horizon.  I am so content to my specialty, distressed housing market, that I didn't use my knowledge of stock investment.   Now I realized that there are so much easy money to make in the Street money machine.  Why I didn't catch the train and went for stock "short" on housing stocks, both of builders and mortgage providers?  

Say, almost all financial & housing sectors lost at least 50% of their stock value this year.  If I based my projection of housing future and took part of the game, I would make a 50% return just in terms of stock value only.   The return didn't factor in other calculated manipulation that would multiply it many times.   Now I know I missed an excellent opportunity that costed me "opportunity costs."  

Well, I am not a person who doesn't learn from " trial-and-error."  So, my instinct reaction is as follows:  
 

To B*****ke,

Thank you for your post. It helps a lot to give me the guts needed!

I have never bought any stock even I read a lot of stock investment books and materials so many years.  I am just concentrating myself in real estate. No distraction!

Since 6 months ago, I have spend more time and energy into stock markets. The more I research, the more I have strong desire to buy.  One month ago, I have a very strong drive to buy two housing stocks.  But I didn't do anything and stayed on the sideline.   It costs me a lot of opportunity profit!

So, after reading another article and this article you wrote, I decide firmly that I am going to pick up one particular stock and invest.  I know it is not the right timing to get into it at this moment (there are some uncertainty involved).  This stock will go down even further to the bottom until it lose about another 15-20% value against its current stock price in mid-January 2008.

But what a whack, we can't expect to buy at the lowest and sell at the highest all the times, right?  It is a mission impossible to be a stock timer.  As all businessmen say: "Buy lower, Sell higher" is the way to make profit.   Also as Warren Buffet said: "choose a under-valued stock is my way."  The stock I have followed several months has lost at least 70% of its equity real value per its SEC filing of P/L (that means it is way under valued and oversold.  An investor may recover his money even it files for a BK.) 

If the worst happens, it still would not cost me a hand or leg.   So I am ready to do it.   Scary, it will be the first time I am going to swim with those big sharks.   Well, I will let you know what's my pick and the result.