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If you read my rant at the media in this column a couple months back, you remember one of the things I told you was how the media tends to generalize. If you believe what you read and see in the mainstream media, network TV, syndicated columns, etc., you're laboring under the delusion that the entire housing market from one coast to the next is failing, prices plummeting, foreclosures skyrocketing - and it's just not true.

Areas like ours that grew the fastest during the past 5 year run-up, (Riverside County led the nation with 155% appreciation) are those that are tumbling the fastest as well. California, Florida, New York, Boston, Denver, Las Vegas are all in about the same leaky boat. Some got in a little sooner, some will stick around a little longer.

All of us will make it back out and continue to prosper and real estate will continue to be the greatest builder of wealth for the average American family. How you fare through this cycle depends on how you prepared during the past few years. If you've been through a cycle or two before, whether it's housing, stocks, weather, whatever, you know the cycle can either make you or break you if you're a gambler, they can be your best friend if you stay the course.

Now I want to tell you about one of the many places across the country where real estate continues to boom - and boom loud. It's only one of many but it's a good story.

I was blessed to grow up in a tiny little town high up in the Colorado Rockies. It was a mining town for many years and went through it's share of boom and bust cycles depending on the price of gold and other minerals. The town never suffered much during the depression because all the old European mining families exhibited a flair for making and exporting bootleg liquor of reputable quality. I've still got the '29 Buick my grandparents used to make runs to thirsty areas that had more cash than entrepreneurial talent.

But when the country went off the gold standard it shook the place to it's roots. William Jennings Bryan, campaigning for President of the Unites States on a ‘Return to the Gold Standard' platform, even brought his campaign to town knowing he could count on the mining vote. (He still lost). Lots of mines closed during those days. The town went from 33 saloons, a prosperous Red Light District and a total area population of around 10,000, to less than 1,000 hardy souls, 1 mine, a couple seedy taverns and a grocery store. The banks went bust and took peoples savings right along with them.

When I was growing up there, the town was down to about 450 people year-round. Not exactly prosperous but certainly comfortable. Mining was the backbone and tourism swelled our coffers during the summer as a result of the spectacular scenery and 14,000 foot peaks surrounding our little valley. We didn't know if we were rich or poor but we were happy and real estate was what you lived in, not a speculation or an investment.

In the early 70's prospectors discovered another kind of gold in our mountains, one that the locals has been enjoying all along, ‘White Gold'. Seemingly overnight we became a world class ski resort with movie stars living next door to old hard rock miners, TV personalities and music celebrities rubbing elbows with aging ex-hookers and cattle ranchers at the local diner. Tom Cruise, Oprah, Oliver Stone - the list is endless of 'A' list homeowners.

Today a house in town goes for an average of about $1,000 a square foot. Those are the old homes, the ones built in the early 1900's or even the late 1800's. Fixer-uppers and tear-downs, for the most part. Residential lots in town go for upwards of $1 million if you can find them. A residential lot in town is 25' X 100'.

And real estate is selling like hot cakes. But like anywhere, you must be fairly priced to get sold. The basic rules don't change, only the ratios. I've got a neighbor trying to sell his 2,400 SqFt home for $6.5 million. He'll likely be on the market for quite awhile until he gets real - same rules different ratios. The markets are relative but if you want to get your home sold - regardless of the market, you must be priced right or you're gonna sit on it for awhile.

My point is this. We're going through some rough times in the the real estate market right now there's no denying, and even the optimists like Dr John Husing and others figure it'll take us a couple years to climb out and meanwhile there's going to be bad things happening to a lot of good families housing-wise. But it's important to keep your eyes on the goal. The entire real estate market is not crumbling. It's actually a dynamite buyers market in our area right now between low interest rates and inventory to select from. And while the Temecula Valley may never become a world class ski resort (hopefully), we certainly have lots to offer and people will continue to migrate to our little corner of the world - probably more people than we might like.

Real estate is often a matter of boom and bust cycles - as anybody living in California more than 10 years can attest - yet the bottom line always trends up. Treat your home like a place for your family to live first and foremost and not like an ATM machine or a hot-tip stock investment. If you follow that simple rule, which has always stood the test of time, you'll do allright. If you're a gambler, well then it don't matter much whether it's Vegas or Pechanga or dot.com stock or housing, your money's at risk. You've never been as close to becoming a ghost town as Telluride, Colorado -  you may never reach the peaks they've rebounded to either, but a sound plan will get you through the housing booms and busts with nary a scratch. If you didn't learn your lesson last bust, try to take notes this time because it'll be around again in a few years.

 

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Real Estate Agent: Gene Wunderlich - Selling Southwest California Homes / Temecula & Murrieta (Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage)
Gene Wunderlich - Selling Southwest California Homes / Temecula & Murrieta
Temecula, CA
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Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage

Office Phone: (951) 304-2911
Cell Phone: (951) 205-1911
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