If you
read my rant at the media in this column a couple months back, you
remember one of the things I told you was how the media tends to
generalize. If you believe what you read and see in the mainstream
media, network TV, syndicated columns, etc., you're laboring under the
delusion that the entire
housing market from one coast to the next is failing, prices plummeting,
foreclosures
skyrocketing - and it's just not true.
Areas
like ours that grew the fastest during the past 5 year run-up,
(Riverside County led the nation with 155% appreciation from 2001 -
2006) are those that are tumbling the fastest as well. California,
Florida, New York, Boston, Denver, Las Vegas are all in about the same
leaky boat. Some got in a little sooner, some will stick around a
little longer.
All of
us will make it back out and continue to prosper and real estate will continue to
be the greatest builder of wealth for the average American family.
How you fare through this cycle depends on how you prepared during the
past few years. If you've been through a cycle or two before, whether
it's housing, stocks, weather, whatever, you know the cycle can either make you
or break you if you're a gambler, they can be your best
friend if you stay the course.
Now I
want to tell you about one of the many places across the country where
real estate continues to boom - and boom loud. It's only one of many
but it's a good story.
I was
blessed to grow up in a tiny little town high up in the Colorado
Rockies. It was a mining town for many years and went through it's
share of boom and
bust cycles depending on the price of gold and other
minerals. The town never suffered much during the depression because
all the old European mining families exhibited a flair for making and
exporting bootleg liquor of reputable quality. I've still got the '29
Buick my grandparents used to make runs to thirsty areas that had more
cash than entrepreneurial talent.
When the
country went off the gold standard it shook the place to it's roots.
William Jennings Bryan, campaigning for President of the Unites States
on a ‘Return
to the Gold Standard' platform, even brought his campaign
to town knowing he could count on the mining vote. (He still lost).
Lots of mines closed during those days. The town went from 33 saloons,
a prosperous Red Light District and a total area population of around
10,000, to less than 1,000 hardy souls, 1 mine, a couple seedy taverns
and a grocery store. The banks went bust and took peoples savings right
along with them. There were no government bail-outs.
When I
was growing up there, the town was down to about 450 people year-round.
Not exactly prosperous but certainly comfortable. Mining was the
backbone and tourism swelled our coffers during the summer as a result
of the spectacular scenery and 14,000 foot peaks surrounding our little
valley. We didn't
know if we were rich or poor but we were happy and real estate was what
you lived in, not a speculation or an investment.
In the
early 70's prospectors discovered another kind of gold in our
mountains, one that the locals has been enjoying all along,
‘White Gold'. Seemingly overnight we became a
world class ski resort with movie stars living next door to old hard
rock miners, TV personalities and music celebrities rubbing elbows with
aging ex-Madams and cattle ranchers at the local diner. Tom Cruise,
Oprah, Oliver Stone - the list is endless of 'A' list homeowners.
Today a
house in town goes for an average of about $1,000 a square foot.
Those are the old homes, the ones built in the early 1900's or even the
late 1800's. Fixer-uppers
and tear-downs, for the most part. Residential lots in
town go for upwards of $1 million if you can find them. A residential
lot in town is 25' X 100'.
And real
estate is selling like hot cakes. But like anywhere, you must be fairly
priced to get sold. The basic rules
don't change, only the ratios. I've got a neighbor trying
to sell his 2,400 SqFt home for $6.5 million. He'll likely be on the
market for quite awhile until he gets real - same rules different
ratios. The markets are relative but if you want to get your home sold
- regardless of the market, you must be priced right or you're gonna
sit on it for awhile.
My point
is this. We're going through some rough times in the the real estate
market right now there's no denying, and even the optimists like Dr
John Husing and others figure it'll take us a couple years to climb
out. Meanwhile there's going to be bad things happening to a lot
of good families housing-wise. But it's important to keep
your eyes on the goal. The entire real estate market is not crumbling.
It's actually a dynamite
buyers market in our area right now between low interest
rates and inventory to select from. And while the Temecula Valley may
never become a world class ski resort (hopefully), we certainly have
lots to offer and people will continue to migrate to our little corner
of the world - probably more people than we might like.
Real
estate is often a matter of boom
and bust cycles - as anybody living in California more
than 10 years can attest - yet the
bottom line always trends up. Treat your home like a place
for your family to live first and foremost and not like an ATM machine
or a hot-tip stock investment. If you follow that simple rule, which
has always stood the test of time, you'll do allright. If you're a
gambler, well then it don't matter much whether it's Vegas or Pechanga
or dot.com stock or housing, your money's at risk. You've never been as
close to becoming a ghost town as Telluride, Colorado
- you may never reach the peaks they've rebounded to either,
but a sound plan will get you through the housing booms and busts with
nary a scratch. If you
didn't learn your lesson last bust, try to take notes this time because
it'll be around again in a few years.
Well, that's just my opinion -
I could be wrong.
Gene
Wunderlich - Selling Southwest California Homes including
Temecula, Murrieta & The Southern California Wine Country
Remember, Don't wait to buy real
estate - Buy real estate and wait.
' Boom & Bust
Cycles - A Real Estate Primer'
THE
OPINIONS IN THIS
COMMENTARY ARE STRICTLY GENE WUNDERLICH's PERSONAL OPINION. WHILE ANY
REASONABLE &/or RATIONAL PERSON SHOULD AGREE, THESE VIEWS MAY
NOT
REFLECT THOSE OF ACTIVERAIN, COLDWELL BANKER RESIDENTIAL BROKERAGE OR
ANY LOCAL, STATE OR MENTAL INSTITUTION.
Great blog. It is great to have some info from someone who has been there, and will be again. I know I am in this for the long haul, and I have learned a lot this time through.-Dinah Lee