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San Diego County Real Estate Market Trends in 2011

By William Johnson

Industry Observer with Retired

March 28, 2012 07:33 AM

San Diego County Real Estate Market Trends in 2011

San Diego Market Trends

⬇ Experts in data analysis strongly suggest that while we may have hit the bottom of the
market in many areas of the country, property owners should not expect home values to return to 2005 levels for perhaps at perhaps at least a decade. San Diego county home prices were on average 3% above what they were in 2009 but nearly 40% below what they were at their peak in November 2005.

⬇ 2011 was the weakest year on record for new home sales

⬆ 35% of Buyers purchasing re-sale single family homes in 2011, did so for properties costing $300,000 or less

⬇ The percentage of Buyers purchasing re-sale single family homes of $300,000 or more dropped significantly when comparing 2010 to 2011.

⬆ The only two price ranges to see an increase in 2011 for condominiums was in the $100,000 to $200,000 range and in the $800,000 and above.

⬇ In the $400,000 to $500,000 price range in condominiums, sales dropped approximately 18% from 2010 to 2011.

⬇ San Diego Home prices dropped 5.3% in 2011 from 2010

Optimism for 2012 and Beyond

Based on current economic conditions and unemployment levels in San Diego County, 2012 may be the true beginning of the housing recovery. Consumer Optimism is up, Retail Sales are up, Employment is increasing, Interest Rates are still at historic lows, Housing inventory down and Buyer demand is increasing. Sounds like we are mostly on the right track.

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Patrick White

Home Driven Realty, Inc - Baldwin, NY

Driven to bring New Yorkers home

Good Evening

Thanks for the San Diego market trends report. Have a great day

Mar 28, 2012 09:17 AM

William Johnson

Retired - La Jolla, CA

Retired

Hi Patrick, Thank you for stopping by. With the new trends heading up this year, I think real estate will be strong this year.

Mar 28, 2012 10:37 AM

Fred Carver Real Estate Consulant

Retired BC Realtor - Victoria, BC

Accredited Real Estate Consultant

Hi William...I think we're at a point where it's "Buyer Confident" that needs a shot in the arm, Shooting the Press would speed this up..ha

Mar 28, 2012 01:55 PM

Hi Fred, LMAO. I think you make a great point. But I know that collectively we as professionals can do a better job of getting the word out than any in the press.

Mar 28, 2012 01:59 PM

Toni Weidman

Sailwinds Realty - Trinity, FL

20+ Years Selling Homes in New Port Richey, FL

William - The first question everyone asks is "Are the prices going up again?" It is so hard for non-real estate people to realize that even though things seem better it doesn't mean we are going to see prices climbing like crazy. The press seems to want to fuel that thinking. We have to try to temper that.

Mar 28, 2012 10:26 PM

Roy Kelley

Retired - Gaithersburg, MD

In future years, many will look back to the current market and wish they had taken advantage of the purchase opportunities. It is a very good time for real estate investors to build their rental portfolios.

I love your photograph!

Mar 28, 2012 11:35 PM

Dianne Goode

Raleigh Cary Realty - Raleigh, NC

Realtor/Broker

Gorgeous photo! Here in Raleigh there are definite signs that the worst is behind us now. But even if they've stopped falling, home prices are not likely to move up anytime soon. Still, it's good to see things not getting worse. Getting better will surely follow!

Mar 29, 2012 12:44 PM

Sharon Paxson

Sharon Paxson, Realtor® EQTY Forbes Global Properties - Newport Beach, CA

Newport Beach Real Estate

Hi William - very thorough review and discussion about housing recovery, It does sound as though we are on the right track. We are experiencing very similar trends with low inventory and sometimes multiple offers on homes.

Mar 29, 2012 02:24 PM

Bill Gassett

RE/MAX Executive Realty - Hopkinton, MA

Metrowest Massachusetts Real Estate

William it looks like the only place to go from here is up. I would be willing to be it won't be long.

Mar 29, 2012 09:22 PM

Keith Gilkey

Re/Max Chesapeake - Elkton, MD

410-920-7214, Re/Max Chesapeake

William, I like the market report presentation. Well done! The photo is sure to grab some attention, I enjoyed it. Have a nice weekend.

Mar 30, 2012 01:43 AM

Hi Toni, I certainly agree. It would be most helpful if we have the banks in full participation in getting the underwriting process to be a bit more reasonable and set standards that don't discourage otherwise qualified Buyers.

Mar 30, 2012 02:54 AM

Hi Roy, There is going to be an unusual interplay between the investor holdings and encouraging home ownership. At some point the supply side of this will regenerate the building industry to supply more SF homes. The glut then could return when investors lose the tenants and decide to liquidate some of the holdings. I suspect at the entry level, we may also see a return of the investors needing to hold some of the paper. As all of this unfolds, we will be amazed yet again with how real estate can stimulate the economiic engines of the economy.

Mar 30, 2012 03:00 AM

Hi Diane, I think over the next two years we could be seeing slime gains in equity. By slim I am thinking in the .5 to 1% range in many markets. But there will be market segmants where 5% annual increases drive the markets in a positive trend. It will take years to normalize this but I see good things happening in the upcoming years. Buyers should be encouraged. Why would any buyer want to buy a home when the prices are falling, especially if it is their new home that is going to be losing equity. That's more of a trend that investors like.

Mar 30, 2012 03:07 AM

Hi Sharon, Hopefully there are no more big economic surprises ahead for us in CA and that things just keep progressing along, :-). We will get there.

Mar 30, 2012 03:22 AM

Hi Bill, I am sure you are right. If there are no more big economic surprises ahead, we should be on track for some gradual but steady improvment that will encourage Sellers to come to market and Buyers to seize the opportunity.

Mar 30, 2012 03:25 AM

Hi Keith, Thank you so much. I try to balance the presentation with something poisitive and the photo is one of my favorites.

Mar 30, 2012 03:26 AM

San Diego County Real Estate Market Trends in 2011

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