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Foreign investment in US Financial Institutions - it's a good thing!

By
Services for Real Estate Pros with Zillow

There have been several high profile investments of foreign capital into prominent American financial institutions over the last few weeks, as Wall Street tries to work its way out of the subprime mortgage mess. 

- China invested $5 billion in Morgan Stanley 

- China also invested $3 billion in Blackstone 

- Citic, a Chinese investment bank and Bear Stearns each invested $1 billion in one another

 

- China Development Bank invested $3 billion in the Barclays, the UK bank

- Abu Dhabi invested $1.35 billion in the Carlyle Group and $600 million in Apollo

- Abu Dhabi invested $7.5 billion in Citigroup

- Singapore invested $11.5 billion in UBS

- And just moments ago, news came out that Singapore is in advanced talks to invest as much as $5 billion in Merrill Lynch 

And that's all in just the last few months. If oil stays about $80 a barrel and the world's trade deficit with China continues at a record pace, 2008 will surely see even more investment in Western financial institutions by oil-rich countries and by China.

So what's my take? Well, the circumstances under which many of these investments are being made are unfortunate. However, the realpolitik in me smiles every time I hear about a new one. Why? Simple: I highly doubt that the US is going to fight a war with any country which owns a large chunk of one of our major financial institutions. I sleep better at night knowing that China owns 10% of Morgan Stanley. And President Bush seems to agree: "I'm fine with capital coming in from overseas to help, you know, bolster financial institutions," he said. "I don't think it's a problem. I think what would be a problem to say we're not going to accept foreign capital, or we're not going to open up markets, or we've become protectionists."

Bring it on. 

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Aslan Realty Advisors, LLC
Fort Myers, FL
Staying a step ahead with Pride!

Not trying to be rude, but how much have you studied this topic?

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/

PR 

Dec 20, 2007 02:35 PM
Ken Cook
Content, coding, marketing, host. - Marietta, GA
Content Marketer/Creator
(God Bless America playing softly in the background): Spencer I have a huge problem with the sissy little investors who pulled out and left us exposed. My prediction a year ago was that China and the Arab Emirates would buy America one mortgage at a time. Now that's not exactly what has happened but it's on the wrong path. Then again I have a huge problem with globalization and the UN.
Dec 20, 2007 02:46 PM
Spencer Rascoff
Zillow - Seattle, WA

Paige,

You're not being rude at all, but I'm not sure I follow you. What do you mean (by linking to the CIA Factbook)?

In terms of how much have I studied the topic, I'm certainly no expert. But I have studied war history and economics pretty extensively. More importantly though, it's my strong opinion that countries fight almost all wars for economic reasons. It stands to reason that countries with strong economic ties won't fight one another. Hence the oft-quoted (and true, I think) statement that the US has never fought a war against a country with a McDonalds in it. I believe that stronger economic ties between the US and China, and between the US and the Middle East, contributes significantly to global stability.

Now clearly there are other results of foreign investment, some of which are unfavorable. But I was purely focusing on the improved political stability which comes from increased foreign investment, especially in the financial sector (where huge dollars are at stake, both in the public and private sector).

Dec 20, 2007 02:47 PM
Brian Sharkey
SharkeyRE LLC - Singer Island, FL
SharkeyRE
It's so true.  The more we receive the more valuable we are to others.  They can't walk away from this great opportunity.  Capitalism at its best.
Dec 20, 2007 02:55 PM
Aslan Realty Advisors, LLC
Fort Myers, FL
Staying a step ahead with Pride!

The Fact Book was to give you an idea of who you are rolling out the welcome mat and tootin' the horn for in case you didn't know already. It's a incredible resource-FYI. 

Washington policymakers have placed the US economy in a dilemma. If the subprime mortgage meltdown worsens, low US interest rates will be required in order to contain the crisis. But if the dollar's plight worsens, high US interest rates will be required if foreigners are to continue to hold dollars and to finance US budget and trade deficits.

Forced to choose, Washington will raise rates in order to protect their ability to borrow. Without dollars from abroad, Washington cannot conduct its wars of aggression, and Americans cannot consume $800 billion dollars more each year than the economy produces.

The dollar's decline has resulted from foreigners accumulating new dollars at a lower rate. They still accumulate dollars, but fewer. As new dollars are still being produced at high rates, their value has dropped.

A few years ago the euro was worth 85 cents. Today it is worth $1.44. During the current administration the US dollar has lost 60% of its value against other traded currencies.

Foreigners who finance the US budget and trade deficits have experienced a huge drop in the value of their dollar holdings. The interest rate on US Treasury bonds does not come close to compensating them for the decline in the value of the dollar. Nor do investment returns from real estate and equities.

China holds over one trillion dollars. Japan almost one trillion, in dollar-denominated assets. Other countries have lesser but still substantial amounts.

Wall Street claims that foreign countries are locked into accumulating dollars in order to protect the value of their existing dollar holdings. Foreigners have continued to accumulate dollars in the expectation that sooner or later Washington would address its trade and budget deficits. However, now these deficits seem to have passed the point of no return.

By offshoring production for US markets, the US has no prospect of closing its trade deficit. The offshored production of US firms counts as imports when it returns to the US to be marketed. The more US production moves abroad, the less there is to export and the higher imports rise.

The situation may be even more dire. Recent work by Susan Houseman concludes that US statistical data systems, which were set in place prior to the development of offshoring, are counting some foreign production as part of US productivity and GDP growth, thus overstating the actual performance of the US economy.

In the 21st century, the US GDP has been driven by consumers going deeper in debt. Fed chairman Alan Greenspan's low interest rates triggered a housing boom, which created equity for consumers to borrow and spend. This source of US economic growth is exhausted and imploding.

If the huge bonuses paid to CEOs for offshoring their corporations' production and to Wall Street for marketing subprime derivatives are removed from income figures, Americans have experienced a decline in real income. Some studies, such as the Economic Mobility Project, find long-term declines in median incomes and upward mobility. A tax increase on flat incomes to close the budget deficit would cause widespread distress.

Japan and China, indeed, the entire world, realize that they cannot continue to give Americans real goods and services in exchange for depreciating paper dollars. China is endeavoring to turn its development inward and to rely on its potentially huge domestic market. Japan is pinning hopes on participating in Asia's economic development.

The reason the dollar has not completely collapsed is that there is no clear alternative as reserve currency. The euro is a currency without a country. It is the monetary unit of the European Union, but the countries of Europe have not surrendered their sovereignty to the EU. Moreover, the UK, a member of the EU, retains the British pound. The fact that a currency as politically exposed as the euro can rise in value so rapidly against the US dollar underscores the weakness of the US dollar.

If foreigners were to stop accumulating new dollars, the dollar's value would plummet. If foreigners were to reduce their existing holdings of dollars, the flood of dollars in America would inflate prices out of sight. The reign of the US as the economic superpower would end.

 

http://www.scotiacapital.com/English/bns_econ/fxout.pdf

 

 

http://www.bos.frb.org/economic/banknote/bn2007/bn1207.htm

 

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/international/transactions/2007/trans307.htm

 

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/11/13/opinion/edrohatyn.php

Dec 20, 2007 02:57 PM
Jon Zolsky, Daytona Beach, FL
Daytona Condo Realty, 386-405-4408 - Daytona Beach, FL
Buy Daytona condos for heavenly good prices

Wow,

Paige, who are you? You just have to be MeMed. Will be waiting for that.

Dec 20, 2007 03:09 PM
Frank Jewett
tech4REpros - San Jose, CA

The reign of the US as the economic superpower is coming to an end anyway.  It's dying of natural causes, i.e. complacency, just like England's reign died a hundred years earlier.  This century belongs to China and India.  The Chinese government is pumping money into our economy so that we can continue to buy their products.  In the end, they are buying us out with cheap, hopefully non-toxic merchandise from Walmart.

It's Manhattan Island for a bunch of beads all over again.

Am I opposed?  Nope.  We've moved from a culture of war to a global economic meritocracy.  Those who don't strive for the top don't deserve to stay on top.

Dec 20, 2007 04:54 PM
Lenn Harley
Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Homes and Real Estate - Leesburg, VA
Real Estate Broker - Virginia & Maryland

And along with that infusion of capital into our financial infrastructure comes a lot of subtle and not so subtle influence. 

Americans need to learn from the example of Yahoo when they invested in China.  Yahoo gave up the identity of Chinese dissidents and they are now in prison.  Now we welcome the Chinese investment in our financial giants on Wall Street???  It's insane. 

Welcoming investment from governments of countries that do not share our business culture and over which we have no legal supervision is risky in the extreme.  Having investments in our financial institutions by countries where bribery is a way of life just makes a mockery of any attempts to keep our financial institutions clean.  Goodness, the system of bribery that runs the U.S. Congress will now run Wall Street, except that it will be foreign investment in financial giants rather than American special interests. 

America will always lose the public relations war.  What else will we lose???

 

Dec 20, 2007 10:40 PM