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J. R.,
You are correct in that the length of time that the borrower keeps the loan is the determining factor for benefit. You can calculate your APR based on the anticipated time the borrower will keep the loan or compare the payments based on a rate with closing costs and one without to find out the break even point. Its not all about the rate or the closing costs, but the balance and the individual borrower profile; their short and long term goals and expectations.
Happy New Year!