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How many "wow's" can 1 month hold? In less than 30 day's, we've seen MBS drop abruptly to 4 month lows, gain half of that back, lose most of it again in ONE HOUR only to surge to better levels than before the sell-off began. We'd like to extend a heartfelt 'thanks' to FOMC data and NFP data... We'd been looking to them for big market moving motivations and they did not disappoint.
This morning's rally was all about NFP. It's really nice to see levels where they are, but please keep in mind that volume is paltry. Many market participants are out for the long weekend and next week is a more appropriate time for celebrations if higher volume and 3/10/30yr Treasury auctions leave similar levels intact. Here's a longer term look at MBS (don't forget we have to peel off about 10 ticks of these prices next Tuesday for the roll. That means that if current levels held exactly, that MBS would be at 103-08).
10yr yields moved decidedly back UNDER the recent range and back inside the previous, extended sideways range. The chart below shows one of the long term downtrends we've been periodically tracking for months. Note how today's "bounce back" takes 10's right to the edge of that trend channel (the red lines), just like the big bounce back did in October. We're not sure if there's anything to this yet, but it is interesting (last time it was a big pivot break back down into a bullish trend, but it's hard to be so bullish as to expect that it would happen the same way again. We can dream): 9:03AM : ALERT ISSUED: Weaker-Than-Expected NFP... Cue "Rally Mode" For Bond Market You'll very likely not be able to stick your head very far at the window today without hearing about the big miss in today's NFP (the "non-farm-payrolls" component of the Employment Situation Report). The consensus called for 203k and the reality offered merely 120k. Although not a very promising commentary on the state of labor markets, this is naturally quite good for bond markets and interest rates.
Fannie 3.5's are knocking on the door (or ceiling, as it were) of one of their most traveled pivot points in recent memory at 103-10 and currently testing through at 103-11. 10yr yields, are in the 2.07's, and we're not really sure where else they would go right now given that the 2.06-2.09 was the most significant pivot zone before the 3/13 range-breakout.
Remember that it's a short day for bond markets today and volume/liquidity are light. For reference, the hour following the FOMC minutes garnered nearly 500k 10yr futures contracts while the current hour looks to be just under 300k. That's still a good amount of volume, and one of the larger hours in recent memory, but it would be bigger if more folks were in the office today.
So far it looks like the first major resistance is in with 10yr yields having run logically to the most salient pivot-zone. 10yr yields are already back into 2.08's as we speak and Fannie 3.5's already back down to 103-09. It would take a break below 2.065 to change this likelihood, and that would almost certainly result in a break of the 103-10 pivot in Fannie 3.5 MBS.
One last thing to remember is that, although lenders will almost certainly offer noticeably improved rate sheets today, those improvements might not mirror MBS gains ahead of a longer weekend and monthly coupon settlements for Fannie and Freddie 30yr's next week. 8:38AM : ECON: Non-Farm Payrolls Fall Way Short of Expectations *NFP +120k vs +203k consensus * Previous reading of +227k revised up to +240k * Private Sector +121k vs +218k consensus * Unemployment 8.2% vs 8.3% last time and forecast * Participation Rate 63.8 vs 63.9 last time * Avg hourly earnings revise up from 0.1 to 0.3 last month * Avg workweek unchanged * Weekly hours index -0.2 vs +0.5 in Feb
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 120,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 8.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in manufacturing, food services and drinking places, and health care, but was down in retail trade.
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