I really hate receiving real estate marketing flyers in the mail, especially when the data is wrong. They are usually not factual and the average consumer doesn't know that they shouldn't believe what they read.
In yesterday's mail, I received a marketing piece from an agent that claimed he can "save my sellers and buyers thousands of dollars." He never actually says how he can save them money, but he then talks "facts" about the immediate area. He claims that in the "Lake Travis Southshore Area" that there are currently 552 active listings and 64 sold in February. He's trying to tell people that there is an 8.6 month absorption rate and that it indicates a "buyer's market" and that he can help the buyers get a deal on a property.
I'm not exactly sure what he means by the "Lake Travis Southshore Area" as that's not a term that is used, but the areas that are bordering and south of Lake Travis are Lakeway, Bee Cave, and Spicewood. Since I couldn't get his numbers to match up, I ran numbers with just the zip codes of 78734 (Lakeway and Travis County area near Lakeway) and 78738 (Bee Cave and The Hills) as well as numbers with 78734, 78738, & 78669 (Spicewood).
With just Lakeway and Bee Cave, there are currently 463 Active houses for sale. Through March, there were 253 pending and sold properties. That equates to about 84.3 sales a month, which is 5.49 months of inventory. That means, if no other properties came on the market and each current listing had to sell, it would take about 5 1/2 months to sell them all. That's an absorption rate.
With Spicewood added into the mix, there are currently 657 Active houses for sale. Through March, there were 307 pending and sold properties. That equates to about 102.3 sales a month, which is 6.42 months of inventory.
What's my point? My point is that a market is deemed to be "balanced" at approximately 6 months of revolving inventory. I don't see how this agent can tell people that we are in a Buyer's Market with 8.6 months of inventory when it's just not true. I didn't eliminate builders' inventory homes. I didn't eliminate by age or size. I only did houses and not condos, but there aren't many condos in this area, so the numbers wouldn't change enough to add up to the numbers this agent is presenting.
If you receive marketing statistics in the mail, please have the sense to question the information presented. We are NOT in a buyer's market in the Austin TX Area. Sales have increased and overall, Austin is selling on average at 97.07% of asking price in 80 days, while the median is 97.7% of asking price in 50 days.
Buyer's Market? Really? It's more like a Supply and Demand issue as inventory shrinks and sellers are asking the right prices for their homes!
Call me if you would like factual information about the Austin Real Estate market.
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Copyright© 2012 By Donna Harris, All Rights Reserved. You may re-blog with links back to this post.
* Can Consumers Trust Market Data Received in the Mail? * was first published on donnahomesblog.com.