Hey it is inevitable. It is the time of year we look ahead. Here is how I see the year shaping up
1 It is an election year. Elections bring about uncertainty. When we have uncertainty people tend to stay on the couch. Just look at this year. The uncertainty the press in part created made many fear about the housing Market. So I think the election will be a drag on the market maybe in the late summer months.
2 We see more and more folks buying tracts of land. I think this is an indicator that the smart money expects a rebound in the market and they are buying up land at good prices with the notion of building later.
3 We have 75 million baby boomer's retiring. Not all next year of course. But as they retire and move to be closer to a loved one or downsize I think activity will be created in markets. I think popular destinations will be active. More so than they were this year.
4 The mortgage situation which is really now an issue of institutional liquidity has not played itself out. Remember in an earlier blog I noted the 5 banks that had 5 million dollars in assets but really only 1 million dollars in cash. So if there is any kind of rumbling we may have some issues to face. Jumbos still remain at a higher rate in part in my opinion due to the amount of cash needed to fund them.
5 Regulation. Whether you are a republican or a democrat this administration has done its best to get banks into our business and tried to squeeze Realtors in general to help the Big guys. Thank you NAR for fighting for us. However regulation is an issue and even though we did not create this problem uncle sugar may use the housing/mortgage problem as an excuse to reach into our pockets.
6 Energy, the politics of energy and International politics in general are a wild card in this mix. Your guess is as good as mine. You can see how a problem in energy can easily create a problem in housing.
Having said all this people want to own homes. Many who were afraid may move into the market next year as terms, prices, and inventory are favorable. So the crystal is cloudy in my opinion for next year. Not big time up or down but pointing at neutral waiting for something, or some one, or a general collective burst of buying, due to great conditions to move the market in a big way.
Happy New Year to All.
Comments(5)