WASHINGTON, D.C. ---Florida's population growth rate dropped by more than one-third last year, according to new numbers released by the U.S. Census Bureau. MiamiHerald.com posts an Associated Press story with the details:
According to figures released Thursday, the state's population increased by 1.1 percent to 18.3 million. Over the previous 12-month period, the growth rate was 1.8 percent.
Looking the other way...
The Orlando Sentinel credits John Dunbar at AP for its version, which leads off with two paragraphs on Louisiana's population history before somberly inserting:
Florida was the 19th-fastest-growing state -- dropping from 2006 when it was No. 9 in the nation.
The Sentinel's version buries the money quote---from Census Bureau demographer Greg Harper---in the 11th paragraph, and without a word of followup:
"If there's one state that's a little surprising, I would say it's Florida," said [Harper].
Christina Rexroad at sptimes.com (St. Petersburg Times) took a closer look at the Census Bureau's American Community Survey and saw something more profound---a reason Florida population growth is skidding to a stop:
Florida has the largest percentage of renters spending 30 percent or more of their income on rent and utilities, according to the ...Census Bureau.
A rough formula that allocates 30 percent of the family income for housing---including insurance, utilities and taxes---is a rule of thumb planners, financial analysts and bureaucrats use to measure regional economic health.
According to the Census Bureau survey, 52 percent of Florida's 2.1-million renter households pay more than 30 percent of their income for housing, beating out also-rans California, Massachusetts, Nevada and New York.
Nationwide, only 46 percent of renters spend more than 30 percent for housing. Rexroad doesn't ask, but we will: who would want to move to the state where:
Median wages in Florida are $28,570, or about $3,000 less than the national average, according to the state Agency for Workforce Innovation. But the median price of a home, $222,100, is about $14,000 more than the national median.
Brian Bendel at bizjournals.com/southflorida finds evidence of even greater long-term growth declines:
On a longer-term scale, Florida also has slipped. Estimates dating back to April 2000 have Florida's population growing 14.2 percent, or 2.3 million people, to rise from 16 million people in 2000. Where it previously was the third-fastest-growing state over a seven-year span, this year Florida has slipped to seventh. Its long-term growth was eclipsed by Nevada (28.4 percent), Arizona (23.5 percent), Utah (18.5 percent), Georgia (16.6 percent), Idaho (15.9 percent) and Texas (14.6 percent).
Sam Roberts at nytimes.com concluded:
"the bursting housing bubble squelched expansion in some of the nation's fastest-growing states..."
And Roberts focuses on another practical measure of population growth---realignment in Congressional districts after the 2010 census:
If nearly decade-long trends endure, Texas will gain as many as four Congressional seats and Florida’s delegation will grow by two, while New York and Ohio will lose two seats each, said Andrew A. Beveridge of Queens College of the City University of New York.
Cox News' Marilyn Geewax at PalmBeachPost.com took a look at the latest Standard & Poore/Case Shiller Home Price Indices released Wednesday to find yet another wet blanket:
The respected measurement showed Miami surpassing Tampa as the big city where values were falling fastest in October. But the news was gloomy across the board, even in formerly healthy markets.
"No matter how you look at these data, it is obvious that the current state of the single-family housing market remains grim," said Robert Shiller, one of the economists who developed the home price report.
PalmBeachPost.com delved a little deeper:
October single-family home prices on the Treasure Coast fell to a median of $201,000 from $242,400 in October 2006, according to the Florida Association of Realtors. The 17 percent drop was the highest-percentage decline in the state. Prices for existing single-family homes in Palm Beach County were off 5 percent, down to $348,300 from $365,600 in the same month a year ago.
The Tallahassee Democrat and Florida Times-Union in Jacksonville have yet to weigh in on the issue.
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