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If you are considering locking in an interest rate for a New York mortgage or a Florida mortgage, read this post.
There was nothing of relevance scheduled for release today, leaving bonds to be driven by stock movement. This is good news at the moment with the stock markets posting sizable losses as it helps make bonds more appealing to investors. If the major stock indexes extend this morning’s losses, we may see improvements to mortgage rates during afternoon hours today.
The rest of the week is extremely active with six relevant economic reports in addition to another FOMC meeting and two fairly important Treasury auctions. The economic reports range from low importance to extremely high importance with the majority of them falling between. Therefore, it is likely that we will see a fair amount of movement in mortgage pricing over the next several days.
The Conference Board will kick off the week’s events by posting April's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) late tomorrow morning. This index is a key indicator of future spending by consumers. The group surveys 5000 consumers from across the country about their personal financial situations. If sentiment is strong or rising, it is believed that consumers are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. However, if they are concerned about issues such as job security and savings, they will probably delay making large purchases. The latter is better for the bond market and mortgage rates because the expected slowdown in spending would keep inflation and economic growth concerns to a minimum. But, a sizable increase could hurt the bond market, pushing mortgage rates higher tomorrow. It is expected to show a reading of 69.5, which would be a decline from March's 70.2 reading. The lower the reading, the better the news for mortgage rates.
March's New Home Sales will also be released late tomorrow morning. It gives us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but is the week's least important report. Unless it varies greatly from analysts' forecasts, I am not expecting the data to cause much movement in mortgage rates. Analysts are currently forecasting an increase in sales of newly constructed homes.
Overall, look for plenty of movement in the financial markets and mortgage rates several days this week. Wednesday will likely be the most important day of the week with the FOMC meeting, press conference and fairly important Durable Goods data, but we may also see noticeable changes to rates Friday after the GDP is posted. If this week's reports reveal weaker than expected economic conditions, the bond market could extend its rally and mortgage rates should fall for the week.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Empire Home Mortgage Inc. is a registered Mortgage Broker with the New York and Florida State Banking Departments and our loans are arranged through third party providers.