About three weeks ago Gordie Romer, (a geat Windermere agent from Leavenworth...your welcome) and I plus a car full of assorted significant others, wives, kids and dogs set out on a Christmas tree hunt in the Wenatchee National Forest. Weather reports said some to 1" of snow. No big deal.

What we actually got was 24 hours of one of the biggest storms lately, which effectively curtailed our hunt. Last night weather reports for our area were 6" of snow from 10am to 10Pm with another 6" in the next 24 hours and up to 20 more inches by Sunday... so this morning we have less than 1/4 inch of the white stuff. Point is weather is an inexact science and the pundits and prognosticators are often wrong... though usually there is some truth in their forecasts... and occasionally they hit the nail on the head.

Fast forward to the Real estate market (whew that is a jump). Isn't it much the same... that is we can rely on historical data...but beyond that trends and apparent market direction are merely someone's idea of what tomorrow will look like... all with some truth, a few hit the nail on the head and most are not much else than air moving from a low pressure area to a high pressure area( or the other way around).

Fact... the market has changed. Seems pretty obvious. In fact we can measure the change just like the snow.

Fact... the change has produced a way different market from a year ago. Well a year ago on this date we did not have new snow.

Fact... tomorrow will not be the same as today

Item... market will not recover until mid 2009...oh yeah? How do we know? Let see what was that about 16" of snow... and that was a far shorter horizon and with far more accurate prognosticators.

Item... the market is already turning and will be healthy the last part of '08... hmmm ok and the sun will come out tomorrow too... what by the way is healthy?

All i know is things change and no single person, economic model nor guru has a lock on inside information that will happen 100% for certain, 100% of the time and in its entirety!

Put the markets in perspective a little. Here is some data on the Wenatchee market provided by Pacific Associates in Wenatchee. Historically it shows us when it rained or snowed but it doesn't do much for the future except assure us that last nights 1/4 inch wasn't as bad as in the past nor as good... it was just... well the days events!

Data is by year and shows the total number of homes sold... not too bad for '07 ...but there are plenty of people singing the blues;

2003   757

2004   851

2005   1010

2006   975 (nine out of ten local REALTORS would say that '06 was the big year)

2007   879 (through November '07)

Data is for SFR's in the Wenatchee area only.

I am anxious to see what '08 will be... a legitimate snow warning or a missed forecast...but one thing for sure there will be a number and I intend to have my share of the number...will you?