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With 2007 now coming to a end, we all know the roller coaster ride we had in 2007 and now we prepare for 2008 and obstacles do we have to face in 2008.

My take on Inventory: The way I see this market is pretty simple, there is a housing market flooded with inventory which is no secret, most of the houses on the market are over priced and the ones that are priced fairly are still selling. The sellers who are over priced are causing the market negative news which put's fare in buyers minds that real estate is not selling but we all know when priced fairly the house does sell and sell quickly. The sellers who are over priced are those who have bought a house in the past 2-3 years and bought over listing price and need to get more money to break even or sellers who think the housing bidding war of 2-3 years ago is still active. So far no news flash here....

I feel that Real Estate Agents are contributing to the slow market....Agents who look at a home and are afraid to tell the seller(s) that what the seller(s) expect for a price is unreasonable, these agents will take the listing just to have a listing. This not only does not make any sense but contributes to the numbers and puts more non selling homes on the market. Why would anyone want a listing to just have a listing when it's over priced? Do you really think you are going to sell that house? Do you really think you will get flooded with buyer leads and hope to sell those buyers another home? or do you think that having a listing will make you look like a real estate super star? "look at me, I have 10 listings" (none selling but you have 10). Taking overpriced listings is hurting you and everyone else in the real estate business. I am sure agents will flip some type of take on why to take a overpriced listings and we can debate that over and over but simply it's bad business. Why would I want 10 mortgage applications? Just to say I have 10 applications? That's great but I don't get paid on applications I get paid on closed loans! - Stop taking listings that will not sell! Help the industry shrink the inventory pool.

First Time Home Buyers in Control in 2008: We all know there are tons of  homes that are overpriced and are not selling which will allow First Time Home Buyers to control the 2008 market. First Time Home Buyers are in control so why shouldn't they take advantage of it!. First time home buyers know that the inventory is high and they can shop to get a great deal. First Time Home Buyers don't have a home to sell so they are buyers who can buy NOW!, they control the market. If a current home owner wants to buy a home they need to first sell their home which can be difficult if they need to get a price that is too high and have no room to play on the selling price. This again is a the reason first time home buyers will dominate the house buying market in 2008. First time home buyers should BUY and BUY now while rates are low, inventory is high and great deals can be negotiated

This is not to say that people who are sellers now won't sell but the that market is slimmer and more difficult than working with someone that has no strings of selling a home.

Those who have a home to sell and are over priced will sit on that home and sit on it until they realize they are overpriced or finally take their home off the market which will help everyone.When the inventory shrinks the supply shrinks and demand will help sell homes.

The focus in 2008 will be on First Time Home Buyers which will help fuel sales of existing homes and allow those existing sellers to buy a home thus helping the entire cycle.

Best of luck in 2008

Leo Namiot

Benchmark Mortgage - Connecticut

http://www.leolends.com/

 

 

 

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21 Comments on First Time Home Buyers Will Control The 2008 Market - Just my 2 cents worth

I agree with you...This is a "great market" for the first time home buyer! 

Patricia Aulson/Hampton NH Real Estate   www.patricia4realestate.com  Seacoast NH/ME Real Estate 

12/28/2007 10:15 AM by Patricia Aulson (PRUDENTIAL RUSH REALTY)


Leo, Nice post.  First Time Home Buyers are a market that will be dominate in 2008.  With many Cities and States offereing incentives to help FTHBs get in there could not be a better time.

12/28/2007 10:35 AM by Nate Ellis "Mr Danke Schoen" (HomeWay.tv - Keller Williams Realty East Bay 888-808-6283)


I plan on going after people who are currently renters myself.....the reason being is that they don't have a home to sell!  I enjoyed this post very much!

 

Bob Mitchell

ValueList Real Estate Services, Inc. 

12/28/2007 10:36 AM by ValueList Real Estate Services, Inc.


Well Leo, Lets hope you right.  I for one don't think 2008 is going to be the year everyone thinks it will be.  The general public does not see the market as they use to.  Refi boom is done.  Market is flooded with repos, which are selling for thousands of dollars under what they are worth just to move them and take their licks now rather than in 2009.  By taking their licks now it hurts the marketability of selling other homes within the neighboring areas, etc.  It is a mess to say the least.  In our area homes now are not being placed up for sale as the homeowner's are holding onto their home, not moving due to higher costs of living, homes not selling for the top dollar, and they know they will be beat up with having to pay closing costs for the buyer, and still take less for their home.  You might be right about the first time home buyer.  That is our only salvation at this point I feel.  I just do not see it coming back as strong as it really needs to be.  I do see rentals going full speed ahead, and the renters around our area are holding out for that great deal.  Purchasing of repos is their option.  That in turn as I said hurts the market in the long run.  I do wish you all the luck in 08, and much success.  Good post.

12/28/2007 10:37 AM by Bob Sloop, Consultant, Indianapolis, IN (RS Mortgage Consulting)


You are probably right because they have no downside risk and no home to sell that could slow it down...

12/28/2007 10:38 AM by Al Maxwell - Real Estate Agent - (Coldwell Banker)


I think for the most part if we help the First time home buyers this will fuel the others in the cycle, we need to get those overpriced homes off the market so stop listing them. Let's start making first time home owners dreams come true, this will benefit everyone

12/28/2007 11:00 AM by Connecticut FHA LOANS,CT VA Loans CT First Time Home Buyer:CT Home Loans (www.BenchmarkCT.com: CT Commercial Loans)


Start with First Timers.. sell homes that free up non-first timers to buy.. presto changeo, we have a healthy real estate market. Agreed

12/28/2007 05:03 PM by West Hartford CT Real Estate Agent | West Hartford Realtor | Michael Chenkus (ERA Broder Group)


I tend to agree with you at least on the 1st time homebuyers...now, if they can all have excellent credit, we're in business!  Happy New Year to you!

12/31/2007 10:23 PM by Joyce Mahaney Brewster (High Profile Realty)


Hi Joyce,  Excellent credit is not needed, I just ran a customer application yesterday with a 590 Mid score for 100% financing and got an approval.... There are still some 100% financing available for less than perfect credit, this person just had some lates on their credit so it can back approved!

 

 

01/01/2008 10:39 AM by Connecticut FHA LOANS,CT VA Loans CT First Time Home Buyer:CT Home Loans (www.BenchmarkCT.com: CT Commercial Loans)


You have some good insights in this post, but pointing fingers and blaming people muddies the message. 

01/01/2008 11:17 AM by Kent Simpson REALTOR®, CNS®, AHS®, RECS® (with The Pepper Group™ Diversified Real Estate)


Kent, maybe you are one of those that take ever listing just to take a listing? Sometimes the truth hurts!

01/01/2008 03:36 PM by


I should add that rates have dropped again this week... Home buyers should be taking advantage of thses great low rates!

01/05/2008 09:42 AM by Connecticut FHA LOANS,CT VA Loans CT First Time Home Buyer:CT Home Loans (www.BenchmarkCT.com: CT Commercial Loans)


I am one of those first-time buyers. I am mid-700's FICO, no debt, and cash in the bank, but I am on the sidelines.

Prices in Minnesota have much further to fall. The problem I see is that too many agents use real estate price trends as their primary comparison point.

This would be like a bunch of basketball players getting together and looking at each other and deciding that some guy who is 6'5" is a very short person.

You must compare incomes, equivalent rent, jobs, personal debt ratios, credit card trends, etc. 

All of these factors must be weighed to understand whether prices have corrected far enough. Anyone who can look at the Case-Shiller Price index and tell me a 5-10% discount makes this a 'great time to buy" loses credibility with me.

In most markets, it is ABSOLUTELY NOT a great time to buy. Otherwise people would be buying. And quit it with this buyers-are-scared stuff. What an insult. You think buyers are scared? Sellers are a whole lot more scared than I am. I am going to let the continued depreciation grind away at the prices until they regain the historic inflation adjusted trendline.

Remember, most of the  people who bought on impulse and without any real analysis have already bought. Now you have people like me, who can't be mollified with RE happy-talk. And every day that prices drop a little more, more like me are created.

Only substantial price reductions will release this so-called pent up demand.

To the great agents who are neutral on prices and only care about getting their client the best deal, you are the professionals guys like me want.

To the cheerleaders who treat me like a fool that can be swayed by sound-bite logic: Sorry, there are not enough buyers to go around. If you don't want to get voted off the RE island, you need to see buyers in a new light.

Price appreciation will be negative for another year or so, therefore that part of the sales pitch needs to be left out. People should buy a house because they want to live somewhere, not because it is an 'investment'. 

 

02/07/2008 01:02 AM by Weary Consumer


Pretty insightful stuff. I agree with everything for the most part & hope you will continue to share your thoughts.

02/07/2008 01:00 PM by Michael McEleney (Iowa Realty)


I agree.  As a matter of fact that is what I am seeing primarily now.  Here's to a phenominal 2008!

02/07/2008 03:04 PM by Don Draughn - Debt Counselor (Financial Debt Freedom)


I'll take other clients too though :)

02/09/2008 09:31 AM by Michael McEleney (Iowa Realty)


2008 is proving to be an excellent time for buyers. First time home buyers should definitely take advantage of the conditions of this market. The focus should be on maintaining good credit because qualifying may present challenges with problem credit.

02/09/2008 09:56 AM by DDR Realty, Orange County, NY


You are correct-I hope buyers come out and take advantage of low rates/higher than normal inventory. Things are picking up here in Iowa City even in artic conditions.

-Mike

02/10/2008 10:21 AM by Michael McEleney (Iowa Realty)


Leo,

Well said....I always see the glass as half full rather than half empty.  There are always going to be buyers and sellers who need our services.  The key is tapping into the niche that fills the piepeline.  Given the inventory and the low interest rates still available, first time homebuyers I believe like you will fuel the sales and get us through this cycle.

03/03/2008 08:27 AM by Donna Bigda Realtor® Branford Connecticut Real Estate-RE/MAX Alliance (RE/MAX Alliance)


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