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There Will Not Be Enough Real Estate Agents in 2010

I twittered this article from RealtyTimes this morning, and thought I would take a quick look at one of our local Gloria Nilson GMAC Real Estate offices to see how the article's statistics held up at random. I chose an office that I thought had a pretty good mix of full time agents; one that I knew would represent our local area well.

The article not only holds true in my sample, it is nearly exact. The office I chose has approximately 50 agents. I was hoping to see about 25% (approximately 15 people) in the "20-35" age range, 50% (or about 25 people) in the "36-50" age range, and the other 25% in the "50+" range. This would have shown that things aren't as bad as the article portrays. I did not contact the agents and ask their ages, but I do know enough about most of them to be able to "guesstimate" their ages and fit them into one of these 3 categories.

What I found instead was the 50% was in the "50+" range, more like 10% in the "20-35" range, and 40% were in the "36-50" range. All end up within 1-2% of the results within the article.

The article cites some remedies for an "upcoming" shortage of talent in the industry, companies can offer "long-term career development", "availability and access to mentors" and "make it clear your company meets their core values-flexibility, balance, respect, and accessibility." Correct me if I am wrong, but most companies in our area are already using these methods to attract our current agents. If a Generation Y prospect is considering a career in real estate, every company in our area would be interested in meeting with them. Agents are independent contractors, so if a company doesn't meet their needs now, how have they been attracting agents in the other age groups?

Now is the time to think about what else your company can do to attract the talent you will need in the future, but it is also the time to figure out what you can do to recruit Generation Y'ers to the real estate industry now.

Posted by Allison Werner on 12/28/2007 12:32 PM

Comments (93)

career in real estate, gloria nilson gmac, real estate recruiting, recruit

93 Comments on There Will Not Be Enough Real Estate Agents in 2010

DEC

2007

Interesting article. The key is will there be enough "talented" agents. We all saw what happened during the boom as we exploded with inexperienced Realtors.

I can't imagine a time when there wouldn't be enough real estate agents. In Southeast Florida, every other person has a realtor's license. And, those individuals that don't have a license, believe they can do the job better than anyone who is licensed!

I'm guessing Generation Y are the young people?? This is a business where we're dealing with what is the largest investment most folks ever make---the very young & inexperienced agents often don't have credibility with home sellers, unless they're related. I tell our young agents to read as much as they can & educate themselves quickly, so they can speak & act with confidence & conviction to prospects. Homesellers need to know that their agent has the talent & knowledge to get them to the closing table.

Sounds good to me. I wouldn't mind having to do 4 or 5 agents work. Sounds like it would be wonderful.

Hi Steve, You got it- there are no shortages of the category of people that get into the business for a couple of months and then leave when they find out they weren't on their way to easy money.

Hi Dalia- Yes, Generation Y are the ones born between 1982 & 1993 according to the article. They are now between the ages of 14 & 25. The concern is if this age group has no interest working in the real estate industry, and almost 60% of current agents are at or above the retirement age, who will the "next generation" agents be?

Hi Anthony- Great comment! I know of a few others that may agree with you!

Sounds good to me, I will be here in 2010. I am interested to see how many we lose for 2008.

I am wondering myself should all of the cost and efforts for being an agent will be guidelines to anyone staying alive over the next years.

Real estate is not a business with a reputation as a "career" as so many Gen Y consider. Perhaps because owning your own business (which all agents do) isn't something that young agents realize takes planning and effort. This year may sort out a lot of different issues about the number of people getting in and staying in the business.

There might not be enough talented agents right now much less in 2010. Overall agents, too many now and then as well!

Allison, very informative, especially creative to apply the article's thesis to your own organization. More to think about for 2008.

interesting. I am 32, and plan on being here for the long haul. I am trying each day to be excited about my business, with the hopes of attracting good business minds for the future

The article mentions.."You could also try paying them more money, too. "

With so much downward pressure on commissions and the amount of work needed to be successful, (contrary to the belief of many) we really might have a shortage of "quality" agents. (now and in the future)

Interesting article.. Thanks!

Hi Jeff- 2010 is not that far off, but you have a great attitude!

Hi Gary- I have been wondering if the costs of starting up have anything to do with this trend. The Gen Y'ers are just getting started.

Hi Cindy- I agree, there is not only planning, but the implementation of the plans & goals you set are paramount.

Hi Josette- Great point! There are more inactive agents than active most of the time.

Hi Andrew- Definitely more to think about. I tend to try & correspond every article I read to make it relevant to my organization, but most of the time there aren't so many similarities

I think that 50+ may not tell us enough about the equation. Most agents in the area that I work in are working until they can't physically do the job. They might shorten work days or weeks as they age, but still a factor in the market servicing past clients. I see no problem with loosing some of the agents. I hope to see 20% go away do to the current market conditions. As Anthony said, I would be happy to do the work of any number of them.

Congratulations on your "featured post" status! Mine is right under yours.

Very good post. I have a very interesting demographics study showing what is important to the Y generation (also known as the "Look At Me Generation", due to the ubiquitous presence of that age group in places like "My Space" and "FaceBook", etc.). I will write a blog about it in the future.

Hi Sean- Thank you for including an age! You are a Gen X'er, so it's good to see that the industry hasn't completely lost your age group (as the article mentions)

Hi Nick- You are right, the shortage may be sooner than they think.

Hi Steve- Of course the 50+ range will include someone who is 51 and will be working for another 20 years, and there will also always be exceptions to every rule. Even now there are thousands of licenses that go unused, but when a whole industry wants to take life a little slower, and not put forth the effort, there may be too much for yourself & Anthony to handle ;)

Hi Mirela- Thank you, and congratulations on yours as well!

Very interesting.

On the other hand - if - in 2010 - we are down to fewer agents - and I am one of them..........

Congrats on being featured - very interesting subject matter.

Hi Allison,

Another way to look at it is either agents will keep selling real estate into their 60s and 70s or fewer agents will be needed into the future as they implement technology into their systems.

I agree with Dan - but on the other hand - if the lawyers have their way - the standard sales contract will be 40 pages long - plus addendums - by then and I am not sure any technology will fix that.

Great point about working longer - and a great thing for our industry - the more voices of experience out there the better.

Allison,

Great post and oh so true. For the agents that can survive through this downturn the following up market looks to be very profitable.

However, a counter point to consider is that real estate sales is often a second, or ninth career for people and many agents continue to be successful and provide excellent service to their clients well beyond what is traditionally considered retirement age.

Interesting article. I will still be doing this in 2010 and I won't move to Florida!

Hi Kevin- I think you will be around a few more years :)

Hi Dan- I do think technology will enable future agents to handle more clients effectively, but the value of an agent can't be replaced by technology. I know I will still want a live person to help me in the biggest transaction I make in a lifetime.

Hi Again Kevin! Ouch 40+ pages of contracts will definitely increase the value of an experienced agent!

Hi Jonathan- Thank you. I agree that real estate is very often a 2nd -9th career. The agents that survive the downturn, will be the ones that younger agents strive to be. This may lead (eventually) to more agents flooding the market again after the upswing, seeing how profitable it was for those that endured the market.

Hi Wayne- Great comment! That should ease a few minds in Florida!

I am 33 and relatively new to the biz and plan on staying in for the long haul. I think that the education and being able to learn quickly and think on your feet will definitely help me stay in the business. Also, I think being a genuinely caring, hard-working individual will bring the repeat business. It's the job that I do now that will truly determine my future.

If history teaches us anything a shortage of agents in our industry is not a likely problem.

More young agents simply means more less experienced agents.

We have enough of them now. We have so many, in fact, that it's hard for an agent to get the experience through transactions completed to learn the business and have sufficient experience to work independently.

So there are agents 50 or older? So what? What is the cut-off age?

We're not hoisting oil drills or breaking mustangs, for goodness sake.

We have an active broker in our market that is 85. She's quite the force, even now. She works part time. There are a few more that will continue until they just cannot keep going. I'll have fun tonight playing with the numbers and seeing how this plays out in our market.

Hi 33 Year Old- Thank you for including your age. You are right, those attributes will help you succeed.

Hi Randy- Your right, historically there has not been a problem, but I have noticed the downturn in new licenses goes right along with the market. The Gen Y'ers have barely gotten started, they may turn real estate into a 2nd career as Jonathan mentioned.

Hi Lenn- Great comment! You brought up something that the article doesn't consider, the younger agents need to gain experience through transactions in order to make it on their own. The real estate industry is not something a Gen Y'er will look into for the purpose of paying off their student loans, so by the time there is a crunch (if there is one), more of the Gen X'ers will be in the industry as 2nd careers. I agree with you, there is no hoisting of oil drills, and there is no cut off.

Hi Debbie- It is a great exercise, to look at the statistics. Our youngest in my sample office is about 23 or 24, and the oldest is rumored to be about 80. I have just noticed that in our local area, there are more that are looking to slow down their business over the next few years. Maybe not by 2010, but certainly in the next 5 years. I even hear that from my prospects, they don't want to make a move because they have other things they want to do and plan on being out of the industry all together in the next couple of years.

I don't really believe this will be a problem, there are always people of all ages entering the profession.

My experience has taught me that one can sell real estate truly until they die. My ex-mother-in-law had loyal clients that insisted on working with her when she was in her early 80's. When I first started in 1991 I partnered with a top-producer so that she could enjoy her grandchildren....she brought in the leads and I did the work...it was the perfect match. The key it to keep up with technology, not the age.

I agree with Michael from Bellingham. I can imagine too few "qualified" agents, but I think there will always be too many agents. One way to correct this would be to raise the bar on entering the real estate profession. I high school diploma is not much to overcome to become an agent.

I agree that there will always be enough agents for each market. When markets are busy many people think they want to be in real estate, when they slow down the fittest survive and the ones that should not be in it have to move on. That is the case in every industry. the key is to keep learning as we go.

Hi Michael- True indeed, thank you for your input.

Hi Diane- Great example. You had the "availability and access to mentors" the article mentions when you were getting started. It comes down to if the agents who are at retirement age choose to retire, or choose to keep working.

Hi Karl- Good point, but that is too eliminate the "license hangers" who have no intention of keeping an active license. Raising the bar will keep some of those out of the business, but also some who would consider the industry as a career.

Hi Clark- I really think it is a cycle as well. As the market takes an upswing, so do the number of licenses.

Hey Allison! Great post ... I've linked to you on Shak & Jill! :)

I think you don't see a lot of young agents in our field because they don't have much experience in the work force, yet. Also, the prospect for most people starting their own business is a little scary and even more so for someone who is young and probably doesn't have much savings to work with.

I've noticed a lot more 30 somethings getting into the business and if that continues, then we won't have a shortage of people who finally figured out what they want to do when they grow up.

Very interesting article, although I was not able to find the original article, I believe it was partly about the current slowdown encouraging more to leave the business and when the business bounces back, there will not be enough agents to go around.

I believe there is now and will be a lack of skill to go around. Taking advantage of my companies training and technology, I was able to "retool" for the new market, and sold 83% of listed homes (29% MLS average)

I am honing my skills and fully expect to gain market share as FSBO's and expireds fail to sell. I am really looking forward to this market. My point is, I will be able to sell 100 homes, probably 200 homes, fully leveraged. So why do we need 2500 full and part timers in a market when 200 fully skilled ones will be able to do a far superior job?

You also mentioned age as a factor. I used to think that all Realtors were "OLD" besides me. Now they are all young. Oh that is me aging!!

I think that the more traditional companies will have a higher % of older agents. Newer, faster growing companies like ours have a lot younger age dynamic.

Guy also blogs at www.MadisonHomeBlog.com

Jeff,

I received an e-mail this morning from our local Realtors' association extending the deadline for annual dues to January 7th from what has been the norm December 31st. I too wonder what the new membership count will be!! At this moment we have 16,000 active in our Palm Beach County Florida regional MLS.

Manny Reynaldo - www.2bocahomes.com

Interesting article... I started at a company that had a "traditional" business model and the average "age" of the agents was 50+. The newer business models have a younger, more technology driven work force that will be around for a long time.

We need about 1/3 of the number we have right now. I think the full time agents who practice the craft the way it should be will remain in control as always. Fewer agents will go into the business because it will no longer look like a quick buck!

Hi Kathy T. - Thank you for the mention!

Hi Chelle- Great points! It is scary for those who are just getting out into the workforce, and may have student loans to repay. As noted in previous comments, it is a "2nd career" type industry.

Hi Guy- The original article is titled "Talent Vacuum Sweeping Real Estate" on Realty Times today. It does have a lot to ponder. I like your perspectives, thank you for your input!

Hi Manny- I'm thinking if they extended the deadline, they haven't gotten their expected response and are hoping more renew.

Hi Debbie- I'm not sure the business model is a factor in the article's main idea. Looking at the industry as a whole, technology is advancing for advertising, marketing, lead generation and even recruiting, but that enables a good agent to do their business better. None of the technology will provide an agent with the will to join the industry.

Hi Team DiMuria- "Fewer agents will go into the business because it will no longer look like a quick buck!" I think that summarizes the entire article!

Very interesting article. I am 29 and am already a top producer in my local office. This is GREAT NEWS to hear for me because frankly, I think the public is getting tired of dealing with the typical real estate agent of 30 years ago. They really listen and are amazed by how much technology that I can provide to them to help them get their homes sold. I'm sure the older agents can continue to survive if they have built sound relationships with their clients throughout the years, but every day I continue to meet more and more of them who are looking for someone who is up to date with technology. Just because we are young, we must not be under-estimated...

Hi Michael- Thank you for including your age, and it is great news for you! Thanks for your input as well, you have some great points, especially not to under-estimate your demographic

I think that I have to disagree with the article for a couple of reasons.

There are currently just too many agents in most markets... no matter how you count them.
20% of the agents do 80% of the work... or more. So, efficiency could come with a tightening force.
There are a lot of people that will migrate to real estate from other careers when their personal needs dictate. (I hit RE when I was 40 and ready for a change... a lot other agents find their way here later, too).

Oddly, I think that if we lost a HUGE number of agents, it would actually be better for consumers. This will run contrary to the logic that many ascribe... I think that if there were only 20% as many agents, and they were running bigger operations, there would be more efficiency, and to gain market share, there might actually be more price competition. I see some of it already with the mega agents.

We need fewer agents true, but we also need younger agents. I think one aspect in the "real esate" industry was over looked, and that is this: Gen Y IS working VERY HARD in real estate, just not in the personal service indusrty we all know and love. Gen Y is working very hard replacing "personal service" with "automated, techno service". Fortunately for us, they've tried and failed many times, making it easy for us to tout "real estate is a people business!! There's no way they'll ever..........(turn it into a website)!"

It's a tuff sell for some reason, even for me. I'm 30 years old and I've been a real estate agent for 10 years already. I hear my friends say all the time that they would not want my job?? I couldn't convince any of them to work in real estate. That's OK though, they can just hire me!

If we don't instill the value of real estate agency as a personal service into the minds of young people, or rather all people everywhere, then there will come a time when the whole of the market will just look at us and say "why?"

Maybe we should all look at ourselves and ask, "why?"

Allison - great discussion here!

As Lenn mentioned, there is no age limit. However, the younger crowed does bring a different prospective to home ownership and investing than the older generation. It's nice to have a mix in the office. While "older" agents may bring exerience, some of them also bring very, very bad habits.

Real estate is usually a second career. I do not think we are as a group *organized* enough for Generation Y - no insurance for the majority, no 401K's, no stock options, etc.

I think that there may be too many "part time" or hobby agents. This is really a profession where professionals should be the only folks working with the general public. I think there are often too few pros out there, but as time goes on an use GenX/Y folks get our businesses built there may be enough of us to service the needs of the growing population. Interesting post though.

The biggest concern about the report is the fact that most people cannot afford to get into real estate until they have had another career. So the numbers will almost always be skewed towards the upper age ages.

Additionally, since almost ZERO companies teach agents how to run a business, agents must have learned business skills elsewhere before coming into real estate.

I think the market will shift in a different direction because of tighter licensing and education requirements.

Hey, Allison, congrats on your star!! :o) Very nice article -- I liked the ending that suggested paying us more. ;o)

There will be no shortage. Real Estate is going to shift to mega agent teams. Think agent CEO. That way the experienced mega agent will mentor the inexperienced team members and there will be no loss in the services rendered.

DALIA: Some one on Active Rain just wrote about the amount of research gen X and Gen Y do on the Internet. Don't assume that the younger generation does not know whats going on. They are after all on the web or connected more then other Generations.

This article is accurate - the 50+ up to 75- are 28; 40+, 9 at 40+; 5 at 30+. It certainly makes you stop and think. There are a lot of part time agents in the younger age group. The 50+ and full time. Kinda scary

There has been a decrease in my area but I think it's a good thing. Good for the agents anyway. They will be in demand and have less competition... not a bad thing.

I honestly don't beleive it. Why would there be a shortage in two years? Peo0ple don't retire. In my area we have about 40% more agents than we need. Maybe this only applies to certain areas. I couldn't find the article just a link to realty times so I'll have to search when I have time

There is to many real estate agents here. However, that is changeing as the market slows. I wish it were true that in two years there will be a shortage.

Anthony, Staten Island Real Estate Agent

I think there are several reasons why there aren't more young people in the real estate business, the biggest of which is that nobody wants to buy a home from somebody who has never owned a home. Also, it is hard for young people to get into a business that is 100% commission based. Why would they take such a risk? Most can't afford to start a career where they may not receive a pay check for 6 months. Even if they are sales oriented, there are many sales jobs where, although the ceiling for income is not as high as it is in real estate, the basement is not as low.

Hi Allison, very interesting...the article does pose some food for thought. There is a a lot to be for experience. Congrats on your feature.

It always comes down to integrity and credibility regardless of the market conditions, number of agents or their age category moniker. Our industry, in general, has a very loooong way to go in building R-E-S-P-E-C-T.

Great Article, Experience is essential assuming that it is applicable and brings value to the client. I agree that this trade/Profession attracts many given what appears to be a low cost of entry until they really understand what needs to be done and many then exit knowing that they do not have the will or the capability to serve clients well.

we have the exact opposite % of agents and its our technology that excites them and lifestyle. Leads to cell phone via text,no floor time, 1100 websites and they give us the new ideas. Multiplewebsiteservice.com

Allison I have to agree with Teresa. I think our market area (Greater Chicagoland) is flooded with agents. How can there possibly be a shortage in 2 years?? I'm counting on there being less agents. Maybe then the averge will go from each agent selling 1.2 houses to 2.4 houses a year. I might be less concerned then most because most of my agents are in their 30s. Happy New Year!

I did the math and I will only be 55 in 2010. I will have over 20 years of experience as a career REALTOR, and I hope to be the President of my local Association. If all goes as planned I will have helped over 1000 home buyers and sellers by 2010. I am in an escrow with a very young 70 something agent right now and she is one of the most professional people I have had the pleasure to do business with in quite some time. We all could take a lesson from our elders statesmen and women. I do not believe there will be a shortage of talent in 2010 in our business. Just a thinning of the heard.

Thanks everyone for your comments and input. There are some great points within the comments, that the article doesn't even address.

Hi Lane- You have a great point with the 80/20 percentages, as well as the secondary career.

Hi Scott- Thank you for including your age as well! Another 30 something! You have been in the industry for 10+ years already, and obviously won't be going anywhere in 2 years.

Hi Debbie- You mention a lot of other reasons that the article doesn't. The industry can offer mentoring, but without the "perks" you mention, it's a hard sell against a salaried position with benefits.

Hi Jeff- That is a perspective that the article doesn't even mention, mega teams. Thanks for bringing it up!

Hi Pat- You had similar statistics as my sample office, but I was only looking at full time agents.

Hi Monika- Definitely, there won't be many people getting a license to make a quick dollar anymore.

Hi Teresa- The article is "Talent Vacuum Sweeping Real Estate" For some odd reason the word "vaccum" caught my eye this morning, but I am glad it did :)

Glad to see someone else uses Twitter. I love it.

I work in an office of just 20 agents...The numbers you quote are close to what we have..over half the agents are over 50...but since all of us plan to work till we cant anymore I expect that we will all be working in 2010 just 3 years from now. Im 61 and expect that Ill be doing this for at least another 10 years I want to be able to help all my fellow baby boomers buy their retirement homes in Florida.

But thats not why I think the article is just a little off. what the articla seems to miss is that for all of us old geezers this is a second or even third career. There are a whole bunch of 45-55 yr olds (the tail end of the baby boomers) comming up behind us that will be looking for something different to do. Over the next 20 yearsthere will be no shortage of agents. We may be a little grayer than you would like but we can get the job done.

Also we cold probably get along with fewer agents anyway

Sorry I skipped around on my replies!

Hi Joe- You have a great point about the "part time" and "hobby" agents.

Hi Allen- Nice point on the tighter licensing & education requirements. That is something we will be hearing more about in the near future in most states.

Hi Sarah!- I thought more would have commented on that part of the article. Surprisingly, I think only 1 other person has! Thank you :)

Hi Anthony- My personal feeling is you will see a lot of the "hobby" agents (as Joe put it) drop during 2008. NJ had their license renewal over the summer, and there are already people that have gone "inactive" just over the last 6 months.

Some one who wasn't signed in had great points, "Most can't afford to start a career where they may not receive a pay check for 6 months." That does seem to be the tricky point for Gen Y'ers.

Hi Gary- Thank you :) I agree, there is something to be said for experience.

Hi Carol- I keep hearing "chatter" on the recruiting sites about a global "war for talent" in other industries as well, not just real estate. The numbers of the Gen X'ers are just not enough to fill all of the jobs over the next 5-10 years. There may never be a shortage in real estate talent.

Hi Nathan- You see the point that the industry already has a high turnover, due to the items you mention, maybe it will just be higher in the future.

Hi Larry- You certainly seem to be the exception, especially to have that many full time agents in the youngest age group.

Hi Vicki- It seems most of the comments are people counting on less agents over the next 24 months!

Hi C.J.- "We all could take a lesson from our elders statesmen and women." I loved that comment, thank you!

Hi Gary- I do twitter, and was very upset twitter was down today. I kept thinking of something I wanted to twitter, and forgot what they were by the time it came back up!

Hi Ron! Great comment, thank you!! The article does neglect the 2nd and 3rd career aspect of the industry.

I think it is a great article that you wrote and one to think about. I got in to the business right out of college, at 19. The decision to go into such a competitive business was an impulsive one and worried my parents greatly! There is no stability, they kept saying. It is now ten years later, yes, I am 30..it even hurts to type that, =), and I own a successful company with 40 agents. I think that it is important for us generation X'ers to encourage the Y's. I found it challenging as a young adult in the business to gain acceptance from the more mature agents when realisticly they were grandfathered into everything and I was the one sitting in classes having to learn. Even in a such a competitive industry it is important for us to invite the newbies in and teach them what we have learned. I have actually made that part of what we do at our company, I have put many agents on my team, even those on the 40+ age reange, and they are grateful to have someone take them in and teach them. We sign two year contracts, never extend them, just set them free to be my competition. It's okay with me because I know when I co-op I hope it is one of them and they tell everyone about our company! I think it is an innovative and easy thing to do and even though we may not have as many agents, we will at least have ones that are qualified to handle the business. I have to say that it was sad to see the amount of fallout this year, but the quality if the agents has greatly increased!

Respect is a core value and a good one. I don't think a lot of agencies consider they have a younger group of agents and experienced in other fields who don't want to be treated like they are in grammar school. ( Agents as children. ) If you treat them like professionals they will act like professionals. Did you ever notice how slow and labored a lot of the people in our field speak? You can fall asleep waiting for them to get to the point.

Wishing You HAPPY HOLIDAYS and Best Wishes for A GREAT YEAR 2008.

Tommy New York Certified Home Inspector Long Island NY Nassau/Suffolk/Queens Home Inspections

Hi Heather- Thank you for including your age! You have quite the success story behind you though, so I would tell it too if I were you. There was another comment mentioning that "mega agents" will run larger teams. Thank you again for sharing your story!

Hi Carolyn- I haven't run across any agents like you mention, maybe those are the ones that are inactive now?

Hi Tommy- Happy New Year to you too.

Perhaps there won't be enough in 201 - but right now it seems like there are too many.

Interesting statistics. I am going to spend tomorrow guestimating our agents ages.

DEC

2007

I cant see there not be enough realtors. There are alot of realtors due to the recent boom. The low barrier to entry should stop any potential shortages from lasting very long.

I wouldn't mind a shortage at all.

It would be difficult to envision a shortage of Realtors although I am seeing our numbers in the Hilton Head/Bluffton, SC market dwindle as they look to other careers. Still, we have many who will stay in the profession.

I think in my area MOST are 50+. I never thought about this until your post. There really arent a lot of younger REALTORS. Might be good for me, if I hang in there!!!

This goes under the assumption that realtors actually retire.

I'm good for another 20 here.You're as young as you feel. But yes you have to keep up with the changes because they will come.

I believe that the laws of supply and demand will prevail as always. I'm much more concerned that there are too many agents than ever too few. Thanks for sharing this info. It is interesting.

Oh yeah, I'm worried about there being too few real estate agents.....NOT! If every office in MA lost 70% of their agents, the field would still get along just fine. First of all, the top five per cent of agents in an office typically control 95% of that office's business. If lots of agents left, the next tier of agents who are good but are not in the top 5% would then increase their business, provide good service and do very nicely financially. Sounds good to me!

Oops - wasn't logged in when I left the above comment - no need for me to be anonymous! lol

Amy Hunter, Sudbury MA

I will still be here in 2010

Well, I briefly looked at the numbers last night. As I expected, most were over 55. But what I found interesting, after taking out the part timers and assistants, I found over 40% were at least over 60 as far as I could tell. I didn't run the exact numbers, but I'd say well over 50% of transactions are done by those 35-50. We are just now recovering from having about 20 teenagers in the house for a Halo party during my son's winter break from college, but once I have some time I may study this further.

I am afraid we may only dream about shortage of agents in 2010. As real estate agents are businesses, not employees we will always have enough talented, enthusiastic, well-educated people in our industry. Honestly, young people with good college education especially with business education may overplay many of experienced agents. It may be hard to recruit these young professionals to real estate as we have two major problems for new agents: slow financial start and instable income. Income instability may be cured by good business planning. And you may consider a lower payment at the beginning of your career as a cost of education. How many years and how much money should you invest in, let's say, medical or legal education before starting making over $100K per year? Good real estate agent also needs some time and money before making 5 figure income.

This is just what we need to hear, less supply and more demand. Finally I feel like I am in a position to benefit from a trend.

It will be interesting to see what happens in the next two years, all things considered.

DEC

2007

This is so interesting. Thanks for the info. I think there will be thousands of agents nationwide leaving the business in 08'. Many got in it in the last 10 years and didn't see a cyclic change in the future. The future is here.

What a ridiculously idea that "There Will Not Be Enough Real Estate Agents in 2010". The ways how real estate transactions are conducted may change with technology. Realtors will adapt to compete and have to become more efficient to stay in business. The "real" Realtors will be around whether the market is good or bad and there will not be any shortage of Real Estate Agents.

DEC

2007

Thank you all again for your comments. It seems everyone is on the same page, and doesn't forsee a shortage.

Hi Bob & Carolin- Your right, but the numbers are dwindling

Hi Graham- Let us know the "guesstimate"!

Hi Ki- If there is one down the road, it won't last long!

Hi Jim- :)

Hi Diane- The numbers in NJ are going down, but not by more than the usual percentage, yet.

Hi Kim- Hang in there! Could be a great benefit in a year or two!

Hi Michael- I hear they don't :)

Hi Robert- Great point, Agents have to keep up with the changes, since the only "constant is change".

Hi Al- Supply & Demand... I like it

Hi Amy- Great point, there will always be another tier of experienced people to do the business.

Hi Cathy- Good to hear!

Hi Debbie- Wow, you must have been busy with that many teenagers in the house, thank you for taking the time to comment! I excluded part timers as well, just looking at our full time agents.

Hi Svetlana- Great points within your comment as well. I had not thought of it from the education perspective of a doctor or lawyer, thank you for bringing another layer to the discussion

Hi William- I hope you do benefit :)

Hi Heather- I agree :)

Hi Trey- That it is, the future is here, now it's just wait and see.

JAN

2008

In our market area of Calgary Alberta I see a shortage of agents every summer. As the successful agents take time off at their cottages, the ones that remain are swamped and cannot help all those who call. Real Estate Agents do not get enough respect as a profession. I do see that changing and the new generation coming in are more computer savvy and better prepared for the electronic age. In our area there are many second generation Realtors. They have an excellent chance to succeed as their expectations are more realistic than the general public and they have mentors who really care about their success.

JAN

2008

Hi Marjorie & Doug- You have a great perspective. I hadn't thought about seasonal shortages either, but I can see where vacations in the summer can lead to a busier time for those that stay and don't go on vacation. Excellent point as well about the second generation agents. They can work under their parents gaining the skills and knowledge. Thank you for your input!

JAN

2008

I'm with C.J. Johnson on the elder statesman comment. Fresh, new agents will certainly not hurt the business. It's the "in for a buck" folks that can be done without...

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