User7_13_t Jonathan Washburn
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 1. Zillow marginally increases the accuracy of their Zestimates. Consumers don't notice or care. They only care that they are able to watch the value of their home decrease on a daily basis.

 2. Two top level mortgage executives are indicted for fraud. One of the CEO's indicted has a very strong tan.

3. The top five real estate websites ranked by traffic are: #1 Realtor.com, #2 Zillow moving from #8, #3 RE/MAX holding steady, #4 Yahoo Real Estate up from #7, and #5 Trulia with the biggest increase from the #18 spot.

4. Fox TV creates a new reality television show called "Online Stars Compete for a Shot at Love with Blogging Bertha".  Kelly from this video eventually wins.

5. Although the real estate industry continues to stink (lots of real estate brokerages will consolidate or go out of business), and the media will continue to remind everyone how bad the market was, life will go on and the amount of foreclosures really won't be that bad.

6. Towards the end of 2008, Realtor association economists will still be saying that "we miscalculated the severity of the housing crisis, but we believe that the worst is behind us". (They will go on to state the same thing in 2009 as well)

7. Realogy announces a major restructuring.

8. Greg Swann does something really crazy and is temporarily held in custody.

 9. Redfin announces a new "fuller service upgrade" option, then is sold a few months later to a major lead generation company, (and soon after assumes the RealEstate.com name) Glenn Kelmann goes on to cure cancer or discover time travel.

10. Out of pity for the real estate industry the DOJ drops all antitrust complaints.

11. Dustin Luther is hired by Curbed as Lockhart's "#2".

12. In the midst of many more mortgage company closings, an obscure mortgage lender emerges and gains huge market share.

13. The stock price of the newly publicly traded arm of InterActive Corp's real estate division starts off the year horribly, and ends just as badly...

 14. Shackprices.com Estately continues to be the best home search site on the internet. Large real estate tech companies finally realize it and gobble Galen and his team up in a business partnership/acquisition. Galen forgets his Seattle eco friendly ways and ditches his bicycle in favor of a new Austin Martin used volvo.

15. As all media attention turns to the presidential elections, the government forgets about the mortgage crisis and ends up doing nothing to "help". Everyone breathes a sigh of relief.

16. Warren Buffet buys billions of dollars in under-priced mortgage securities. He single handedly resuscitates the credit markets confidence and turns around the real estate market. 

17. As a result of Point2's recent management changes, Point2 drops off of the radar and becomes mostly irrelevant.

18. Joel Burslem gets promoted to Vice-President of Inman News.

19. "ActiveRain Members" are named Time Magazine's Person(s) of the Year. (Shortly after Jeff Turner is named sexiest man alive)

20. ActiveRain surprises the entire industry...

 

52 Comments on 2008 Real Estate / Tech Predictions

Jonathan - Great predictions - may #20 be not only surprising but sooooooooo profitable for you guys too - WIshing you all the best in 2008!

12/31/2007 12:30 AM by Clearwater Real Estate Pinellas Florida Condos & Homes for Sale- Cyndee Haydon (Charles Rutenberg Realty)


#20 - ActiveRain surprises the entire industry by officially entering the online listings derby?

12/31/2007 12:38 AM by Frank Jewett (tech4REpros)


Well, well, well...all very interesting, fun, fictional, and possibly factual predictions!  On #20, I think there may be some insider info on that one!    :  )

#16 is an interesting thought, there certainly could be some financial opportunity when others walk away.

A lot of NW names on your list.....

12/31/2007 12:50 AM by Deborah Burns ~ Seattle Real Estate Agent (BRIO Realty)


Hi Jonathan..Great post, They interviewed Donald Trump last night and he is predicting the real estate market to bottom within 6 months, and was advising listeners to Buy Real Estate...I could not aggree more, your real estate market is currently a huge opportunity for find a great property, especialy with the choices and room to negotiate and great price...My Prediction The Public will Follow Donald Trump and start buying again in 2008!

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

PS: a little tuff on points2

12/31/2007 12:55 AM by Fred Carver Victoria BC Realtor Find Quality Victoria Homes For Sale (Re/Max Camosun Victoria Real Estate)


Hi Jonathan:  A great list of predictions.  Number 15 concerning Washington and the mortgage crisis reminds me of the quote... "Hello... I'm from the Government, and I'm here to help."  That's all we need.

12/31/2007 12:58 AM by Fort Worth Real Estate - - - Karen Anne Stone (RE/MAX Trinity)


LMAO!!!   Where in the world did you find that video???? And tears are running down my cheeks after watching Blogging Bertha Claus....   Hell yeah.....   I'd watch a reality television starring Blogging Bertha!

12/31/2007 01:01 AM by Roswell Georgia Real Estate Agent - Nancy Rivera (RE/MAX Leading Edge in Roswell Ga)


We'll have to watch to see how many of these are true.

12/31/2007 01:03 AM by Kay Perry (Classic Realty/GMAC)


This was freakin cooooooool. A lot of fun. But not obvious from the very beginning, hence people still read to the end, which, obviously, was the plan.

Terrific stuff

12/31/2007 01:12 AM by Jon Zolsky (FunCoast Realty LLC)


Read more like a "News at 10" than a prediction post.  Great Job!

12/31/2007 01:38 AM by ARDELL DellaLoggia (Coldwell Banker Bain)


Fred,

Yes I was a little tough on them.  It was not meant as a slight in any way towards the new CEO, Saul Klein, but more as a testament to their recently lost management team. It cannot be overstated how much of a difference a great team can make. 

12/31/2007 01:50 AM by Jonathan Washburn (ActiveRain Corp)


Great predictions, you really got me going on a few of them.

Take care!

RJH 

12/31/2007 02:29 AM by Empire Realty


Great predictions. Look out for Blogging Bertha OMG LOL!

12/31/2007 02:53 AM by Jim Houlihan (Coldwell Banker)


Very funny, I'm sure there is truth in some of them, like please God, number 16!!!

Number 20 is interesting....

I'm prepared this time, no heart stopping for me.

You guys are great and only wish the best for you and your families.

12/31/2007 07:33 AM by Missy Caulk-Ann Arbor- Realtor(R)- Ann Arbor Real Estate (Keller Williams-Ann Arbor)


There is humor in truth.......highly entertaining......thanks......wishing you a great 2008......

12/31/2007 08:09 AM by Julie Chapman Realty Homes Brunswick Georgia


Did you use Hitwise or something else to get the information on the your predictions???(i don't want to know) 

However very funny, obviously you are on top of your game

12/31/2007 11:30 AM by Val Rensink (Exit Desert Ocean Realty)


I am really pulling for Warren Buffet! Best of luck in '08!

12/31/2007 11:32 AM by JL Boney, III (Russell and Jeffcoat)


Jonathon,  Great insightful predictions.  Hope your New Year is the best ever !

12/31/2007 11:34 AM by Bill Gillhespy Fort Myers Beach Realtor (Century 21 Tripower Realty)


 

   Great job Jonathon,Here's to a great year to everyone at Active Rain and of course Brio.

 

12/31/2007 11:40 AM by Kim Harris-Broker/Owner/Sound Realty (Sound Realty)


I hope #20 makes you a gazillion dollars!   Happy New Year Jonathan.

12/31/2007 11:44 AM by Linda Davis (RE/MAX Realty Group)


Jonathan - Nice post. I like #16 too, that is a very interesting one. I also like #20. We shall wait and see what happens.

12/31/2007 11:45 AM by Ryan Martin - Bellingham Real Estate Agent (Windermere Real Estate / Whatcom Inc.)


Well, an interesting pairing of Bertha and Shoe Shopping Kelly - that video was something else!

Let us hope that #16 really does come to fruition, sooner than later, too.  Some funny predictions, except for #17.  I suspect Saul will bring some great improvements to P2.

Happy New Year!
Ann

12/31/2007 12:03 PM by Portsmouth NH Homes Condos - Ann Cummings New Hampshire REALTOR® (RE/MAX Coast to Coast - Portsmouth New Hampshire)


I love predictions! It'll be fun next December to come back and see!  It is going to be an amazing year!

12/31/2007 12:44 PM by Joeann Fossland, Master Certified Coach (Advantage Solutions Group)


Jonathan.

You just made my day.  I especially love #2, 16 and 20. 

Go RAIN!!!

12/31/2007 12:50 PM by Lenn Harley Homefinders.com MD & VA Real Estate


Great predictions. You should keep all that insider knowledge to yourself!

12/31/2007 12:56 PM by Tigard Oregon Real Estate >> Wayne B. Pruner, GRI (Oregon First)


Jonathan -what I like most about your predictions is that unlike most in the "predicting" business you are selling yours:) Unless that's what #20 stands for:) Happy New Year!

12/31/2007 01:34 PM by Faina Sechzer - Princeton, Montgomery, Hopewell, NJ Real Estate Expert (Henderson-Sotheby's International Realty)


I liked #19 myself. I definitely believe AR member's would make very good Persons of the Year and we all know that Jeff Turner is sexy.

12/31/2007 01:46 PM by Fran Gatti - Realtor® Crescent City CA Real Estate (RE/MAX Coastal Redwoods)


I will save this and see how you did as of 12/31/2008. Thanks for the post and have a great 2008.

12/31/2007 01:48 PM by Terry Westbrook ~ Realtor(R) Grand Rapids Mi Ada/Cascade Real Estate (Five Star Real Estate, LLC Grand Rapids , MI)


#17 is way off balance.  I don't think people realize that a great team is no longer great when their egos get in the way of company progress.   I will let the new year for Point2 do the talking. 

12/31/2007 02:18 PM by Tim


Well, a lot to digest...I'm glad Remax.com remains strong but question Trulia's rise to 5th.  I really like #6, 18, 19 and 20!

12/31/2007 02:55 PM by Lake Norman Real Estate ~ Diane Aurit (RE/MAX at the Lake)


This was to put it mildly very entertaining on another snowy day her in North Western Illinois. I especially liked # 9 about Redfin and Glen Kehlman curing cancer and all that. After all he is THE scientist that that brought the real estate industry industry shattering new that a homeowner shouldn't overprice their home... lol

 

Thanks again

12/31/2007 03:07 PM by Sterling, Illinois Real Estate- Brian Corwell (RE/MAX Sauk Valley)


great post. I love to be entertained when I read a blog post. You deserved to be featured!

12/31/2007 03:28 PM by Team DiMuria, Katy Texas Realtors (Prudential Gary Greene Realtors)


I predict Redfin will change business models at least 3 times this year :)

12/31/2007 03:42 PM by Matt Heaton (Timu)


I couldn't have stated the zillow comment any better! 

12/31/2007 04:08 PM by Chuck Willman, Arizona East Valley Realtor® (Gentry Realty)


I actually think that's going to significantly hurt Zillow from a return traffic perspective.  People were much more likely to come back daily/weekly to see price increases, rather than price decreases.  How often do you check stock quotes as they go up, as opposed to them going down.      

12/31/2007 04:18 PM by Matt Heaton (Timu)


Jonathan,

Those are some pretty bold predictions.  I'll have to checkback next year and see if you're on the money!Best wishes on a happy and successful 2008!

newyear2.gif Happy New Year image by StarZ909Tracy

12/31/2007 04:41 PM by Tracy Santrock-Cary NC Real Estate Blog (Fonville Morisey)


Okay....I understood every word you wrote....(not really ...haha) but I'm presuming (not assuming...presuming) it's just techie joking?  Have a wonderful New Year people!

12/31/2007 05:28 PM by Celeste "SALLY" Cheeseman (RA), e-PRO HAWAII Relocations & HAWAII Real Estate (Century 21 Liberty Homes -Mililani, Hawaii)


Great post and very funny.

12/31/2007 07:16 PM by


I was hoping Warren Buffett was going to adopt me actually LOL  Jonathan maybe he is also looking for a son :-)

Love #20 like everyone else although I think Carnac already got that one :-)  You had me lauging out loud for sure@!   Happy New Year, Jonathan!

Do we have to share the same cover with JT? :-)

12/31/2007 09:42 PM by Carole Cohen Realtor®, ePRO (Howard Hanna Cleveland City Office)


A wonderful and entertaining read. 

#1 - Dead on.

#3 - Don't discount frontdoor.com 

#8 - Who is Greg Swan?

#11 - Dustin to good to settle for a #2 position anywhere.

#14 - I can see Galen trading up to a Vespa

#15 - We can only hope and pray

#16 - Personally I would feel odd making mortgage payments to Warren Buffet. But I'd enjoy making them to Jimmy. I heard that if he owned a mortgage company after you make 11 payments, he'd buy the 12th round.

#17 - As a result of this prediction Real Town blog creates a new TagCloud titled Wanted DOA dedicated completely to Jonathan Washburn.

#18 - I second the motion.

#19 - Jeff Turner would have a tough time beating Dan Stokich for that that title. 

#20 - Nice.

12/31/2007 11:22 PM by Marc D


Warren Buffet could probably fix the mortgage industry.  He sure couldn't do worse.

01/01/2008 01:13 AM by Randy L. Prothero - Hawaii REALTOR® (Century 21 Liberty Homes)


Nice job!

Hooray for you taking a stab at it-

Warren Buffet probably could bail out the whole mortgage mess if he wanted to.

Reology will restructure- again

Dustin will eventually end up at Zillow or some other start-up- director of IT (blogging)

Point2 will weaken as better options (blueroof360) are offered to agents.

Inman would be lucky to have Joel as VP

 

01/01/2008 02:04 AM by Greg Tracy


Very entertaining, Jonathan.  Hmmm, I wonder who this could be

From Prediction #2: "One of the CEO's indicted has a very strong tan."

01/01/2008 09:19 AM by Jackie - Mortgage Virtual Assistant (Close-More-Loans.com)


#20 - The Subscribe buttons disappear!

 

Happy New Jonathan...I wish you great success in 2008.   

01/01/2008 11:09 AM by Bob Carney Licensed MD/PA Real Estate Agent (Long & Foster Real Estate, Inc.)


I'm with Marc on #17...but glad he said it first.

01/01/2008 01:00 PM by ARDELL DellaLoggia (Coldwell Banker Bain)


I think that the million monkeys that are currently working on the complete works of Shakespeare should be re-tasked to Zillow Zestimates and fixing the mortgage crisis... A million years is a tight timeline... especially for the Zestimates, but I'm confident. 

01/01/2008 01:25 PM by Lane Bailey - REALTOR & Car Guy (Diamond Dwellings Realty)


I like #19, where is Jeff?   I expected a smart a$$ comment by now.

01/01/2008 10:53 PM by Marlene Scheffer, Realtor to Kitsap County, WA (Realty Station)


I did not expect this at all.....thanks for the laugh - I'm still laughing at blogging bertha....and where is Jeff?

01/01/2008 11:02 PM by Rick & Ines - Miami Shores Real Estate (Majestic Properties)


Jeff, the bald guy with a wife and six kids has still not been named the sexiest man alive?  I guess I'll have to do something about that.

01/02/2008 06:01 AM by Teresa Boardman (Keller Williams)


"15. As all media attention turns to the presidential elections, the government forgets about the mortgage crisis and ends up doing nothing to "help". Everyone breathes a sigh of relief."

Amen to that!

Brian Wilson, Zolve.com 

01/02/2008 11:19 AM by Brian Wilson


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Real Estate Agent: Jonathan Washburn (ActiveRain Corp)
Jonathan Washburn
Seattle, WA
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