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Prediction for 2008

So here are a few predictions for 2008 ... lets see how well I do.

1) Housing sales will increase in 2008 to 5.1 million units however the median sales price will be lower since many of the home sales will be distressed properties

2) Investors will purchase roughly 30% of houses sold next year

3) New laws will be passed; one will be related to the mortgage industry requiring licensing for all mortgage brokers and some form of fiduciary responsibility for loans made, second will be a change in the education standards for mortgage brokers (not sure what)

4) Credit markets will loosen up and sub-prime loans will be available but the requirements will be a) qualify at the maximum rate of the loan b) have a job and provide proof of income c) have a credit history that proves a trend of making payments

5) There will be 100,000 less real estate agents in the industry

So at the end of December 2008 someone call me on these predictions

What are yours?

Posted by Allen Wright CNS, AHS, REPS on 12/28/2007 07:05 PM

Comments (6)

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6 Comments on Prediction for 2008

Market will continue downward, but should level off sometime later in the year. Expect, ok hope, it starts to recycle after the administration changes. If we get hit again, or anything else drastic happens, if could take longer. Of course, that's what we think, but can find no factual evidence to support it... or any other market prediction either.

best holiday wishes, and thanks for stepping out there....

12/28/2007 07:12 PM

by Gary Bolen (CRS) Lake Tahoe Real Estate Information (Dickson Realty - South Lake Tahoe)

Hi Allen,

All great points, especially like number 5. I sometimes miss working with agents who have a professional mindset.

12/29/2007 07:38 AM

by Wayne Miller (Beach & Luxury Realty, Inc)

A national license will be in place for mortgage brokers & loan officers.

The FHA limit will be raised at least to the FNMA limit (currently $417,000) but could go as high as $500,000.

I agree with 2 & 4 as well. In fact, there is an article in January's issue of Forbes that speaks of companies getting a bunch of cash together, buying out some of these failed and failing notes at 50 cents of the dollar then turning around and getting home owners to stay in their homes by making lower payments.

12/29/2007 09:01 AM

by Matthew Rosov, Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist (Amerisave Mortgage Corporation)

Wayne - This industry needs some trimming of agents and brokers and those that view the business as just putting a commission check in the bank.

Matthew - You are right, many funds will be put together to deal with homeowners that got into trouble and are willing to work things out ... the collateral is still good as long as the homeowner and investor have a long range view

12/29/2007 10:13 AM

by Allen Wright CNS, AHS, REPS (RealtyU)

I think 100,000 is conservative for the number leaving the industry. Many will more will leave, but keep their licenses.

01/04/2008 07:00 AM

by Randy L. Prothero - Hawaii REALTOR® (Century 21 Liberty Homes)

Randy,

I agree that more than 100,000 will be virtually gone since they do not close transactions ... it will be a hard number to actual nail down ... my prediction is that NAR's number will decrease by 100,000

Wonder how many little mistakes are made by agents that only close one or two deals a year? What service do they provide to a customer?

01/04/2008 09:52 AM

by Allen Wright CNS, AHS, REPS (RealtyU)

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