Is It Time to Buy? Revisited... 

Back in June I reprinted an article that I actually wrote just over a year ago.  I originally wrote it in November 2006, and republished it here and on my blog in June 2007. 

Here is a link to Is It Time To Buy?

Well, if you had taken my advice and purchased, let's see how I would have done...  Just as a note, I am using the S&P/Case-Shiller Indices for historic averages and appreciation (or depreciation) rates. 

• Had you purchased in November... we'll use $300,000 as a value... and closed in December the property would be worth about $299,500 as of October (the latest data available).
• Had you purchased in June, the $300,000 property would be worth about $294,100.
  
• In June when I re-printed the post, the $300,000 home was worth $305,500.  (June was also the peak month in the Atlanta market)
  

I'll have to revisit these predictions again in the future. 

June Market Predictions...

Back in June, I predicted an increase in foreclosures due to ARMs and people buying more property than they could reasonably afford.  

I think this increase will be more pronounced on the middle and higher end of the market. Many of these properties were financed with ARMs that were tied to volatile indexes such as the LIBOR. Owners may be faced with substantial increases in the housing costs leading to foreclosure. There has been a lot of activity in the market over the last couple of years, and so there are a lot of recent properties that could become troubled.

I hit that one pretty well right on the head...

I made a couple of other statements about the market that stand up a little less...  The first was about stabilization at the lower end of the market.  The sub-prime mortgage meltdown tossed that one into the can.  It was the first and possibly most affected sector in the market.  I also said that I thought there were opportunities in higher priced homes for investors.  I might try to make an argument that it could still be plausible... but I'm not trying to tell investors that they should be speculating right now... not on flips.  It is the time to buy to hold.  

Interest rate predictions... 

The 5.5% I was predicting for 2009 is getting terribly close.  I looked at the rates yesterday and they were at 5.62%.  Here is the post.   

I didn't really add anything earth shattering in August or September.  I did say that I thought investors should be looking at properties to buy and hold.

Here is the prediction today...

I think that we are going to have a strong showing here in Gwinnett County late in the spring (2nd quarter).  I think that the absolute bottom will be more like WWWWW from February until May or June.  The year over year numbers might start to trend from there.  But, any of those little bounces could be the ONE... or it could bounce longer.  I just think that by next summer there will be ready buyers that feel like they've waited long enough.