Worried about the Over All Economy? Well, I am and as an Economic Advisor to the Online Think Tank, well that's my job, to watch the trends, charts, world issues and put it all together. There are a few economic indicators that I follow quite closely in judging the US Economy in forecasting and these indicators are probably are not what you think.

No everyone watches the retail sales, fuel prices, credit markets, mergers, stock market, political scene, Federal Reserve levers and yet, this is not enough, yes these are all serious components, but let me explain the methods to my madness. First, I believe the transportation sector is a nice way to judge future sales, layoffs, factory performance and I see that the stock market leads the economic reality in some sectors and trails it in others.

When small businesses have problems, I really worry as they employ two-thirds of our population. When the confidence of small businesses on the economy goes South, it is a big deal. About one-third of our economy is about consumer confidence. If consumers feel safe, they keep spending, but if credit scares, job scares, fuel prices tug on their emotions and if politicians running for office drug down that confidence scaring people of wake turbulence then that has an effect.

Ten Percent of population runs small businesses and when they tell us they are not expanding, one has to worry, even if the President's Administration is calling for 2.7% increase in the economy for 2008. Steady growth sounds good, but when businesses are not buying to expand, I worry, after all that is my job. Industry Week reported the following statement:

The Equipment Leasing and Finance Association's (ELFA) Monthly Leasing and Finance Index which reports equipment finance activity showed that overall new business volume for October was virtually flat (0.10%) when compared to October 2006. However, according to year-to-date cumulative totals, new business volume for January to October 2007 was 6.5% higher when compared with the same period in 2006. New business volume for October totaled $6.8 billion for new commercial equipment leases and loans, compared to $7.2 billion in September. New business volume for October 2006 totaled $6.8 billion.

Basically, they are saying things are now, "FLAT" with no new increases, so, there are huge issues here and we need to watch these numbers, watch the small businesses and the market, as it responds to shareholders equity and corporation quarterly profits. Please be thinking here, as this is something we need to contemplate in 2008.