Market Comment
Mortgage bond prices finished the week slightly higher helping rates improve.The market was relatively stable after many weeks of volatile trading.We started the week on a positive tone as the PCE core index came in as expected.Trading was calm following the indication that inflation was in check.ISM Index data came in higher than expected which initially pressured rates but only slightly.The ADP employment figure was weaker than expected while the weekly jobs release was stronger than expected.The heavyweight employment report did little to settle the disparity as it was mixed.Mortgage interest rates finished the week better by about 1/4 of a discount point.
LOOKING AHEAD
Economic Indicator
|
Release Date & Time
|
Consensus Estimate
|
Analysis
|
Consumer Credit |
Monday, May 7, 3:00 pm, et
|
$8.8b |
Low importance.A significantly large increase may lead to lower mortgage interest rates. |
3Y Treasury Note Auction |
Tuesday, May 8, 1:15 pm, et
|
None |
Important.Notes will be auctioned.Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
10Y Treasury Note Auction |
Wednesday, May 9, 1:15 pm, et
|
None |
Important. Notes will be auctioned.Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
Weekly Jobless Claims |
Thursday, May 10, 8:30 am, et
|
370k |
Important.An indication of employment.Higher claims may result in lower rates. |
Trade Data |
Thursday, May 10, 8:30 am, et
|
$45.5b deficit |
Important.Affects the value of the dollar.A falling deficit may strengthen the dollar and lead to lower rates. |
30Y Treasury Bond Auction |
Thursday, May 10, 1:15 pm, et
|
None |
Important.Bonds will be auctioned.Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
Producer Price Index |
Friday, May 11, 8:30 am, et
|
Up 0.1%, Core up 0.1% |
Important.An indication of inflationary pressures at the producer level.Lower figures may lead to lower rates. |
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
Friday, May 11, 10:00 am, et
|
76 |
Important.An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend.Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
Oil
Inflation fears tied to rising energy prices remain on the minds of traders.Inflation, real or perceived, erodes the value of fixed income investments such as mortgage-backed securities, causing prices to fall and rates to rise.Tensions with Iran over sanctions tied to their nuclear activities increase concerns that they will reduce their oil supplies to the world.Last week OPEC Secretary General Abdullah el-Badri indicated, “We’re working hard to bring down the price.We’re not comfortable.”OPEC indicates they are comfortable with oil around $100 per barrel.U.S. consumers are comfortable with price targets considerably lower than that.Unfortunately that doesn’t look to be a possibility at this time.OPEC blames rising prices on excessive speculation and noted they have been able to meet consumer needs.
Oil prices have fallen in the short term following signs of slowing US economic growth, reports that US inventory supplies are at record highs, and weakness in China’s demand. Falling energy prices are generally good for mortgage interest rates.The great news is that mortgage interest rates remain very favorable.Now is a good time to take advantage of these low rates to avoid any uncertainty with the future.The current rates are a sure thing while waiting for the possibility for lower rates is risky.
|
Comments (0)Subscribe to CommentsComment