End of the year: Moreno Valley, California Real Estate Market
From Beverly A. Bayer, SRA - Real Estate Appraiser
There are a total of 2247 single family homes for sale
1093 are vacant - which is 48.6% (almost half)
68 of the total number of listings per MLS are owner occupied with a Notice of Default filed - add that to the number of vacant homes (1093) equals 1161 homes that need to sell. 121 homes sold since: 11/1/2007 - that is a rate of 2 per day - at that rate it would take 590.5 days or over 19 months to sell the 1161 homes that need to sell (or over 3 years to sell all the homes now listed for sale). Last year in the same time period 295 homes sold (= almost 5 sales per day).
The average sales price since 11/1/2007 is $289,458 or $159 per Sq'
Last year in the same time period was $389,446 or $218 per Sq' - an average drop of almost $100,000 exactly and $59 per square foot. Which is a 1-year decline in values of about 26%. Between 1990 and 1997 home values in Moreno Valley went down about 33% (in 7 years which was less then 5% per year on average - now we are at a rate over 5 times that). If homes continue to lose value at the current rate - homes 1 year from now could be worth less than ½ of their highest value.
Working with DataQuick numbers for November 2007 - home prices in Moreno Valley went down 21% in 1-year with a current average price per square foot at: $168. Keep in mind the average median price per square foot in 1990 was: $90 - dropping to about $60 in 1997 - increasing to about $243 in July 2006. Between July 2005 and July 2006 home prices per dataquick numbers went up about 15.7%. March 2007 was the first month where dataquick showed an average decline in all 4 Moreno Valley zip codes from the same month 1 year ago.
Because of the high number of listings and slow rate of sales - I figure the most likely sales over the next few months will be homes in the lower 25% price ranges per house size. Which would be (on average):
$152 per square foot for homes generally between 1000 - 1200 Sq'
$145 per square foot for homes generally between 1200 - 1400 Sq'
$135 per square foot for homes generally between 1400 - 1600 Sq'
$142 per square foot for homes generally between 1600 - 1800 Sq'
$139 per square foot for homes generally between 1800 - 2000 Sq'
$133 per square foot for homes generally between 2000 - 2200 Sq'
$127 per square foot for homes generally between 2200 - 2500 Sq'
Compared to the prices of about 18 months ago that is a possible decline of / about in probably less than 2 years: (the average price: June / July 2006) % possible loss of value
$170,500 for homes between 1000 - 1200 square feet ($341,934) 50%
$167,700 for homes between 1200 - 1400 square feet ($358,838) 47%
$162,000 for homes between 1400 - 1600 square feet ($366,504) 44%
$158,100 for homes between 1600 - 1800 square feet ($398,751) 40%
$146,300 for homes between 1800 - 2000 square feet ($412,039) 36%
$149,100 for homes between 2000 - 2200 square feet ($422,103) 35%
$171,550 for homes between 2200 - 2500 square feet ($468,248) 37%
Which on average is a potential lost of value of over $6500 per month.
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