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My Predictions for 2008

By
Real Estate Agent with Premier South Sound Real Estate

Well, it's that time of year again-- time to put away the holiday decorations. I registered a half-hearted grumble and began organizing lights and Santa trinkets in the garage... Something caught my eye and from a dark corner I pulled out a precious but forgotten treasure, my trusty crystal ball. This enlightening globe helped me relocated from Tacoma almost 20 years back. It flashed a green light on Gig Harbor waterfront 10 years ago. It's been a good little cohort but not infallible; together we accumulated alternative energy stocks several years ago-- a tough lesson in humility that earned the little ball it's hiding place on this damp garage shelf. I polished the dust away and these 3 predictions for the coming year appeared:

#1- New homes in Gig Harbor North will stand the market on it's ear. These houses will, quite simply, separate buyers that need a yard from those that don't. The new homes represent an astonishing value and they'll surely have an effect on the scores of Peacock Hill resales close by. That area is brimming with homes built in the 80s and 90's and many seem a bit outdated in comparison (although most have nice yards). The new construction is priced "from the 400's" and that is a direct bull's-eye hit on the resales. 2008 may be the year that quantifies what a Gig Harbor backyard is worth.

#2- Gig Harbor waterfront real estate is significantly under priced. You don't need to be a Realtor with the MLS at your finger tips to see what waterfront sells for in other areas of Puget Sound. The thing about Gig Harbor is; we've got so much of it. And it's so absolutely dazzling! Presumably it was a tricky commute across a dangerous old bridge tempering this market. With that problem solved I expect to see local waterfront prices jump; high and quickly. With our little town securely connected to Washington's Hwy infrastructure there's just no good reason why a lakefront home on the I-5 corridor should bring double the price of a jaw-dropping saltwater property in Gig Harbor.

#3- Certain areas in Gig Harbor will (again) experience double digit appreciation. Is it hard to get excited about Key Peninsula waterfront real estate after watching prices skyrocket 45% last year? Do homes in downtown Gig Harbor seem a bit top-heavy after prices on solds jumped almost 17% for 2007? Consider what these amazing numbers represent in the midst of a lack-luster real estate market; relative strength, true clear and indisputable. Here's a stock market analogy too fitting to resist: A couple years ago, as Google stock doubled to $200 during a very treacherous market many proclaimed "Overpriced!" It seemed only logical. But fund companies spotted extraordinary relative strength and purchased with seemingly reckless abandon-- and were rewarded many times over. Gig Harbor's remarkable strength in a "nationwide" real estate slump is a strong indicator of things to come, no crystal ball required.

Matt Thomson
Fathom Realty Colorado - Littleton, CO
Helping you find success through real estate

Surprising predictions!  I can't agree with you more on #2, not sure about #1, but disagree on #3.  I hope you're right, but I think we'll see things level off this year a bit...I think all of the new construction will hurt appreciation a bit.  The gap between new construction prices and existing prices is smaller now than I've ever seen it, and I think that will cause people to shy away from paying more for existing homes.

I've been wrong before though!

Jan 03, 2008 12:35 PM
Dave Spencer
Premier South Sound Real Estate - Gig Harbor, WA
Gig Harbor Real Estate
Thanks for the comment Matt. Sounds like we're really on the same page... The appreciation I spoke of was targeted at waterfront and Downtown Gig Harbor-- I don't see much new construction in those areas... We even agree on #3 in a large part; that all the new consruction will have a huge impact... I just happen to believe new construction will drive prices and leave resale behind, not the reverse. At any rate it looks to be a v-e-r-y interesting year, to say the least!! Thanks Again for reading my post -D
Jan 03, 2008 03:34 PM