After days and days watching MBS get ground into the ceiling at all-time highs despite falling Treasury yields, MBS finally had their chance to hold their ground for a minor correction higher in benchmark yields. When the dust settled, they had done just that! Treasuries were weaker overnight and into the NY open as European markets pulled back from the brink of further flights-to-safety after German Bunds bounced precisely on yesterday's low yields. Treasuries didn't follow Bunds much for that dip overnight as there was a 30yr Auction Concession to be done! Passing over the morning data without much notice, bond markets kept leaking higher in yield into the auction.

But the latter turned out to be relatively tremendous vs historical results, bringing longer-dated Treasuries back in line with their opening levels (say 1.88's in 10yr yields). MBS were choppy within a narrow range, not too flustered by any of the overnight or morning weakness in Treasuries. Late day illiquidity is upon us now as May coupons have little reason to trade ahead of tonight's roll to June. Most of the trading activity has been in the upper stack anyway, leaving the Fannie 3.5's and 3.0's more susceptible to whims of the few. We wouldn't read much at all into price action in Fannie 3.5's this afternoon and doubt any lenders will either. If you do see a negative reprice it won't be due to the movements of MBS Prices.

1:13PM : ALERT ISSUED: 30yr Auction Bucks Historical Trend. Great Demand, Lower Yield...
Today's 30yr bond auction stopped through at a lower-than-expected yield for the first time since 2007 and garnered a high 2.73 bid-to-cover ratio vs recent averages for 30yr refundings of 2.32. Dealers weren't forced to buy nearly as much as they usually do, thanks in large part to a big uptick in Indirect Bidder participation ('Indies' or "IB's" are generally considered a proxy for foreign demand).

This is a fantastic result for the long bond and bond markets have seen their highest dose of volume on the day because of it. The caveat is that there had been a decent concession heading into today's auction both from the overnight bond market weakness and another last minute dose from noon - 1pm. Case in point, 10yr yields have simply returned to this morning's lower yields but haven't stampeded through them toward yesterday's low 1.8's, not yet anyway. The major accomplishment here would be getting back under 1.88. Until then, this great auction is simply producing good (but not "great") results. Still... Good is good!
12:36PM : 30yr Auction Preview: Refundings Are Tough...
We took a few extra moments yesterday to distinguish between "Refundings" (new batches) and "Reopenings" (additional opportunities to buy those batches) when it comes to Treasury Auctions. With that in mind, 30yr Bond Refundings don't do very well historically. The stopping yield has been higher than-expected since before the mortgage melt-down for each and every 30yr refunding. Additionally the bid-to-cover runs at around 2.32% since the August 2011 FOMC Announcement vs around 2.82% for re-openings.

The bottom line here is that low bid-to-cover and higher stopping yield than the 1pm "when-issued" (can be thought of as the expectation for where the auctions high yield will stop) are the norm for 30yr Refundings. On a final note, and because its importance seems a bit overdone in the media, we wouldn't read too much into a low "indirect bidder" %. Dealers tend to do the heavy lifting at 30yr refundings taking about 5% more than the average reopening, while Indirects tend to take about 5% less.

 

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